The latest study from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that the underlying force behind gold's recent strength is still in place.In a report, "Why gold in 2026?" WGC explains how risk assets have delivered surprisingly strong returns, yet the foundations beneath that performance appear increasingly fragile.Equities trade at elevated forward multiples, credit spreads remain compressed, and consensus GDP forecasts imply a resilience that contrasts sharply with historically high readings in economic policy u ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals serve as a hedge against the U.S. dollar, with iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) providing distinct exposure to silver and gold mining equities respectively [1][2] Cost & Size - SLV has an expense ratio of 0.50% and assets under management (AUM) of $47.32 billion, while GDX has an expense ratio of 0.51% and AUM of $30.77 billion [3] - Both ETFs have similar expense ratios, making annual fees negligible for most investors, but only GDX offers dividends [4] Performance & Risk Comparison - Over the past year, SLV returned 139.15% while GDX returned 137.31% [3] - SLV experienced a maximum drawdown of -37.65% over five years, compared to GDX's -46.52% [5] - An investment of $1,000 would have grown to $3,174 in SLV and $2,852 in GDX over five years [5] Portfolio Composition - GDX focuses on gold mining equities, holding 55 companies, with major positions in Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Newmont Corp., and Barrick Mining Corp., which together make up nearly 25% of the portfolio [6] - SLV provides direct exposure to silver prices without holding individual companies, making it a pure commodity play [7] Investment Implications - SLV is linked to the volatility of silver, which is estimated to be three times more volatile than gold, presenting significant risks [8] - GDX, while less volatile than SLV, still carries some market volatility risks, making both ETFs suitable for investors willing to accept such risks [9] - Precious metals typically rise in price during periods of U.S. dollar weakness or international economic instability, making both ETFs attractive options [10]

Core Viewpoint - The interim management statement for Hargreave Hale AIM VCT PLC highlights contrasting economic conditions in the US and UK, with the US showing strong growth while the UK faces challenges including weak economic growth and rising unemployment [3][5]. Economic Overview - The US economy reported a robust growth rate of 4.3% in Q3 2025, despite political pressures [3]. - The UK is projected to have a growth rate of 1.5% for 2025 and 1.4% for 2026, with an unemployment rate rising to 5.1% [5]. - Consumer sentiment in the UK has improved post-Autumn Budget, although business confidence remains fragile [4]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - UK inflation, as measured by CPI, increased by 3.4% year-on-year as of December 2025, down from 3.8% in September 2025 [6]. - The Bank of England reduced interest rates to 3.75% during the quarter, with expectations for further cuts in 2026 [6]. Investment Performance - The unaudited NAV per share decreased by 1.25 pence to 35.21 pence, resulting in a total return of -3.43% for shareholders [9]. - The AIM index returned -0.97% in the three months to December 31, 2025, reflecting a challenging market environment [8]. Qualifying Investments - Hardide saw a significant increase of 157.1% in value, returning to profitability and reporting a 40% year-on-year revenue increase [10]. - Skillcast and Tortilla Mexican Grill also reported positive performance, with increases of 11.7% and 34.3% respectively [11]. - Negative contributors included Cohort, which declined by 36.7% despite solid revenue growth, and Diaceutics, which fell by 23.3% without specific news [12][13]. Portfolio Structure - The company maintained a strong investment position, ending the period with 84.11% invested according to HMRC VCT investment tests [16]. - The weighting to qualifying investments increased from 54.0% to 54.9% by market value [16]. Share Buybacks and Market Activity - The company repurchased 2.6 million shares at an average price of 34.14 pence, with the share price trading at a discount of 4.30% to the last published NAV [21]. - Post-period, the NAV per share increased to 36.33 pence, reflecting a 3.18% rise, while AIM increased by 6.54% [22].

Core Insights - Gold stocks have experienced a nearly 20% pullback since the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) reached an all-time high of $113.50 on January 29 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals equities have become less volatile compared to gold itself [1]

The historic collapse in gold and silver prices on Friday sparked a brutal selloff across mining stocks, as markets aggressively unwound one of January's most crowded trades.As of 2:00 p.m. in New York, silver was down 27% to $84 an ounce, while gold slid 9.5% to $4,861. Both moves marked the worst single-day declines since 1980 for the two metals.The selloff was just as violent in exchange-traded products tracking precious metals performance. The brutal collapse reflects a sharp repricing of monetary risk ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a significant increase in 2025, rising from $2,600 per ounce to over $4,300, marking a 65% return, while gold mining stocks outperformed with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF rising by 155% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, gold lagged behind speculative assets like big tech stocks and Bitcoin, but this trend reversed in 2025 as gold and mining stocks surged while riskier assets cooled [2][3] - The shift in market dynamics indicates that gold performs better during periods of tightening credit, which is currently evidenced by the decline in speculative assets [3][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and the increase in 30-year Treasury bond yields suggest weaker credit growth, which typically leads to gold outperforming industrial commodities [4] - Historical data shows that during the 1970s, gold prices rose significantly faster than most industrial commodities, reinforcing the current outlook for gold [5] Group 3: Cost Dynamics for Gold Miners - Oliver argues that gold miners are not facing the usual cost pressures, and if gold prices continue to rise faster than input costs, profit margins should expand rather than contract [6][7] - The strong performance of gold mining stocks in 2025 is viewed as the beginning of a longer bull market rather than a peak [7]

Core Insights - Gold miners are poised for a significant earnings season due to record bullion prices outpacing stable operating costs, with the strongest annual performance since 1979 expected to drive headlines as earnings reports begin in mid-February [1] - Analysts are forecasting earnings based on a gold price of $3,200 per ounce, which veteran investor Rick Rule believes underestimates the potential earnings strength of miners, as Wall Street strategists discuss prices as high as $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce [2] Earnings Timing - American-listed gold miners have up to 60 days post-year-end to report fourth-quarter results, while Canadian-listed companies have up to 90 days, leading to a concentration of earnings releases between mid-February and mid-March [3] Profitability Dynamics - The relationship between surging gold prices and relatively fixed all-in sustaining costs (AISC) results in dramatically expanded profit margins, as AISC rises only gradually with inflation while gold prices are highly volatile [4] - In Q4, gold averaged approximately $4,150 per ounce, a 56% year-on-year increase, while industry AISC rose only by a mid-single-digit percentage, leading to a significant increase in unit profitability [5] Mid-Tier Producer Example - Mid-tier producers like Alamos Gold Inc. are expected to see substantial revenue increases, with an estimated fourth-quarter production of about 167,000 ounces and a realized gold price near $4,100 per ounce, resulting in a margin per ounce increase of over 115% compared to Q4 2024 [6] - Alamos' total AISC margin for the quarter could rise to approximately $467 million, up from about $182 million a year earlier, with potential fourth-quarter free cash flow estimated at around $137 million compared to $53.5 million previously, driven largely by gold price leverage [7] Market Conditions - Despite anticipated volatility, macro conditions remain favorable for gold, with HSBC raising its gold price target to $5,050 for the first half of 2026, while warning of high volatility and citing geopolitical risk, central bank demand, and ETF inflows as supportive factors [8]

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focusing on various gold-related investment vehicles, including SPDR® Gold Shares, VanEck Gold Miners ETF, and VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF [1] - It highlights the performance and trends in the gold market, indicating potential investment opportunities in gold and precious metals [1] - The analysis includes insights into ASA Gold and Precious Metals Ltd., emphasizing its relevance in the current market landscape [1]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices reached record highs in December, with gold at $4,500 per ounce, marking a 70% increase for the year, while silver surged 140% year-to-date as of December 23, 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Silver's Performance - Silver's significant gains reflect its historical behavior in precious metal bull markets, typically lagging behind gold initially before experiencing sharp catch-up rallies [2] - Over the past five years, silver had underperformed gold until a recent surge, with 99% of the 140% year-to-date gains in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) occurring in the last six months [3] - The gold-silver ratio has narrowed from approximately 104-to-1 in April to about 64-to-1 currently, indicating silver's rapid momentum relative to gold [4] Group 2: Factors Driving Silver's Rise - Silver is considered more affordable than gold, allowing investors to accumulate larger quantities despite price volatility, which may lead to stronger performance in 2026 [5] - The Federal Reserve's potential for easier monetary policies in 2026 could enhance the appeal of non-yielding metals like silver, especially with a new Fed chair likely favoring rate cuts [6] - Silver's industrial usage is higher than gold, with lower borrowing costs potentially encouraging projects that utilize silver's conductive properties, particularly in electronics and clean energy [7] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver has been in a structural deficit since 2021, with a cumulative supply shortfall nearing 800 million ounces (25,000 tons) from 2021 to 2025, driven by demand from the electrical and electronics sector [8] - Gold demand surged in 2025 due to record investments and central bank purchases, although weaker jewelry volumes have been a drag on overall demand [9] Group 4: Investment Options - Investors can gain exposure to precious metals through various digital options such as ETFs and mining stocks, with specific silver ETFs including SLV and SIVR, and silver mining stocks like SIL and SILJ [10] - Gold investment options include ETFs such as GLD and IAU, along with mining stocks like GDX and GDXJ [11]

Market Sentiment and Silver - Silver has experienced a significant rally in 2025, surpassing $68 per ounce, prompting caution among market analysts as mainstream media narratives shift [1] - The supply of silver is closely tied to copper production, with recent disruptions in the copper market potentially impacting silver supply [2][3] Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Speculators often misjudge tactics despite having the right strategy, leading to psychological challenges during market fluctuations [4] - Both analysts expect the dollar debasement trend to persist, with potential drawdowns of 30-50% testing investor resolve [4] Gold Market Insights - The rise of gold to all-time highs requires a long-term perspective, with projections of nominal price increases between 250-400% over the next decade [5] - Historical performance suggests that understanding the reasons for investment can lead to eventual gains, even if initial prices are high [6] Uranium Market Potential - Uranium is highlighted as a compelling investment opportunity, with the Global X Uranium ETF advancing 71% year-to-date [7] - Long-term contracts in the uranium market are providing unprecedented certainty for producers, distinguishing it from other commodities [8] - Analysts expect uranium juniors to become the most reliable in the resource space over the next five years [9] Price Volatility and Strategic Entry Points - Spot price volatility in uranium may obscure strengthening fundamentals, with long-term contract prices increasing [10] - The association of uranium with AI infrastructure could present vulnerabilities, but may also offer strategic entry points for patient investors [10]