美国总统特朗普近日威胁将基准全面关税税率提高至20%，并引用股市创纪录涨幅来平息外界对全球经 济冲击的担忧。尽管金融市场对此消息几乎无动于衷，但越来越多声音警告"清算日"即将到来。 关税加码的底气 周四，特朗普表示，正考虑对所有贸易伙伴统一征收15%-20%的关税，远超当前10%的税率和分析师预 期。此前他已对加拿大加征新关税，本周初更对巴西实施高额税率。 市场已出现"关税疲劳" 交易员似乎已对经济风险麻木。衡量美股波动的CBOE恐慌指数（VIX）本周跌至2月以来最低，美国国 债波动率指标更创2022年以来新低。标普500指数与比特币同步刷新历史高点，后者被视为风险情绪风 向标。 "当市场处于历史高位而波动率极低时，说明投资者已为'完美情景'定价，包括经济软着陆和关税风险 平稳化解，这与现实严重脱节。"Vantage Markets分析师Hebe Chen指出，"标普500指数已超买，回调可 能性极高。" 未来数周或将出现更多关税威胁，牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家皮尔斯（Michael Pearce）预 测："关键在于政府会否落实。无论如何，市场对关税升级的风险显然过度乐观。" 景顺资产管理全球市场策略师赵 ...

花旗：欧元区主权债期限结构短期化趋势显现 澳新银行：贸易不确定性持续，亚洲资本流入面临压力 荷兰国际：挪威克朗受通胀支撑有限，欧元兑NOK仍有下行空间 City Index："关税疲劳"加剧，市场亟需新催化剂推动波动性回升 花旗集团分析师认为，如果相关国家的关税不降低，市场可能会预期这些国家的央行将采取更多宽松货 币政策来应对。由于美国威胁加征关税，多数亚洲货币的多头仓位回落。韩元、马来西亚林吉特和泰铢 等货币的多头押注均有所下降。 荷兰国际集团分析师指出，尽管挪威通胀加速，挪威克朗的涨幅有限。市场认为挪威央行在8月再次降 息的可能性极小甚至不存在，尤其是在该央行于6月已经意外降息之后。分析师认为，欧元兑挪威克朗 有进一步下跌至11.50的空间，并表示欧元目前被高估。 【机构分析】 花旗分析师指出，欧元区规模最大的11个主权债券发行主体的总债务期限结构预计在2025年趋于短期 化。这主要是因为长期债券（特别是30年期债券）供应减少，且由于今年上半年表现不佳，这类债券的 吸引力有所下降。尽管德国债务整体趋势是短期化，但德国的债务发行期限结构预计将保持稳定。荷兰 和爱尔兰这两个国家可能会延长其发债期限。意大利的情 ...

Group 1 - Recent accidents caused by distracted driving and fatigue driving have resulted in multiple casualties across various regions [1][2] - The Ministry of Public Security's Traffic Management Bureau issued a warning emphasizing the dangers of distracted driving and fatigue driving [1] - Specific incidents include a car crash in Guangzhou on July 1, resulting in 3 deaths and 3 injuries due to the driver being fatigued and using a mobile phone [1] Group 2 - The Traffic Management Bureau highlighted that distracted driving can impair a driver's attention and ability to respond to road conditions, increasing the risk of accidents [1] - Recommendations for preventing fatigue driving include ensuring adequate sleep before driving and taking breaks after 4 hours of continuous driving [2] - Drivers are advised to avoid driving during times when they are likely to feel drowsy, such as midday and late at night [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "No-Buy July" movement has emerged as a response to the overwhelming consumer culture in the U.S., where individuals challenge themselves to refrain from non-essential purchases for a month, reflecting a desire for financial control and a reassessment of personal values in a consumer-driven society [1][3][6]. Group 1: Consumer Behavior - July has become a month for financial restraint, contrasting with the traditional "Frugal February," as people seek to save money amidst rising living costs and economic instability [2][11]. - The movement is likened to a social media experiment, where participants engage in "fiscal fasting," pausing habitual spending behaviors to regain control over their finances [3][20]. - The act of not buying is seen as a rejection of consumerism, allowing individuals to reflect on their consumption habits and mental well-being [17][23]. Group 2: Societal Context - The U.S. is built on a "growth myth," where consumerism is intertwined with identity and success, making the choice to abstain from buying a significant statement against societal norms [7][8][9]. - The rise of "No-Buy July" reflects deeper societal issues, including economic inequality and the pressures of modern life, particularly for middle-class families facing stagnant incomes and rising costs [11][21]. - The movement resonates with conservative values that promote moderation and self-discipline, contrasting with the liberal middle class's response to systemic instability [13][15][14]. Group 3: Psychological Aspects - Participants report that the challenge alleviates "decision fatigue" and provides a sense of mental clarity, as they focus on what they already possess rather than what they lack [17][24]. - The practice of restraint is viewed as a form of empowerment, allowing individuals to redefine their relationship with consumption and prioritize meaningful experiences over material possessions [25][29]. - The movement highlights a class disparity, as those who can afford to participate in "No-Buy July" often have the luxury of choice, while many others live in a state of constant necessity [20][21].

教室里，孩子眯起眼睛看着黑板；台灯下，少年揉着疲惫的双眼苦读……国家卫生健康委发布的《近视 防治指南（2024年版）》显示，2022年，我国儿童青少年总体近视率达51.9%。想让孩子不受近视威 胁，保证每天户外活动两小时非常必要。夏天来临，儿童青少年的户外活动时间变长，让我们科普一 下，户外活动晒太阳为什么是近视防控的核心手段，怎样的户外活动才能有效防控近视，户外活动预防 近视的原理和注意事项有哪些—— 户外活动预防近视的原理 户外活动中，光线照射可刺激视网膜释放更多的多巴胺。多巴胺能抑制眼球巩膜过度生长导致的眼轴增 长，眼轴过度增长是导致近视的关键因素。同时，强光下瞳孔会自动缩小，使景深增加，减少光线折 射，物像会更清晰地聚焦在视网膜上，从而减轻眼球为适应模糊影像而产生的代偿性生长。户外活动光 照强度需达到1000勒克斯（相当于阴天的户外光照），才能有效促进多巴胺分泌，若光照强度进一步提 升至3000-10000勒克斯（如晴天树荫下），防控效果更显著。而室内光照通常仅为300-500勒克斯，强 度不足。 户外活动中，孩子还会自然减少使用电子设备、伏案读写等近距离用眼行为，近距离用眼会使眼球的睫 状肌持续收缩 ...

"黄金疲劳"正驱动资金转向铂金寻求替代性避险机会，同时全球库存的急剧消耗和供应紧张局面，共同推从铂金价格攀升至十余年新高。 6月26日，铂金价格大幅上涨，最高涨幅达4.6%，创下2014年以来最高水平；钯金同期涨幅超过6%，触及去年11月以来的最高点。市场分析显 示，尽管此前预期关税政策将对需求造成拖累，但实际情况恰恰相反，中美两国的囤积行为导致全球可交易铂金库存急剧下降。今日铂金期货涨 势延续，小幅上涨至1420美元/每盎司水平。 TD Securities大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示，市场此前普遍预期关税政策将拖累需求，但实际情况完全相反。 伴随铂金强势上涨，其与黄金比价持续逼近多年技术阻力位。当前走势与2021-2026年历史波动趋势形成对照，突破关键阈值可能引发市场结构性 调整。 市场完全被误导了，因为每个人都预期关税会拖累需求，但目前完全没有这种迹象。相反，我们看到中国的囤积与美国的囤积在竞 争，虽然驱动因素不同，但都在推动全球库存消耗。 数据显示，约50万盎司铂金已流入美国仓库，这一流动受到有利可图的套利机会和对关税担忧的双重推动。 市场供应极度紧张 Ghali指出，"如果你观察各种 ...

神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：在复杂的世界里，要想成功，我们需要学会排除干扰，简化事情。简化是一种智慧，复杂的极致是简单。本文来自编译，希望对您有所启发。 Photo by William Christen on Unsplash "完美的状态，不是不再需要增加什么，而是无可删减。"——安托万·德·圣埃克（Antoine de Saint-Exupéry） "对我来说，'忙'意味着这个人对自己的生活失去了控制。——德里克·西弗斯（Derek Sivers） "阻碍我们实现目标的不是障碍，而是通往较小目标的清晰道路。"——罗伯特·布拉特（Robert Brault） 在心理学中，当大脑被各种选择淹没时，你就会出现决策疲劳。这会使你陷入分析麻痹状态。而那些成功人士不会这样做。 迈克尔·乔丹（Michael Jordan）曾说："一旦我做了决定，就再也不会去想它了。" 列奥纳多·达·芬奇（Leonardo da Vinci）曾说："简单是极致的复杂。（Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.） ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the definition of a "good product" and emphasizes the importance of understanding what constitutes a good product before attempting to create one [2][14] - It uses the example of the hovering chair from the movie "WALL-E" to illustrate that a product can be technically perfect but still have negative long-term effects on users [5][6] - The article argues that a good product should ultimately grant users greater freedom, reflecting the creator's love and care for the users [14][21] Group 2 - The article critiques platforms like Douyin (TikTok), comparing them to the hovering chair, as they may lead to negative societal impacts despite their commercial success [22][23] - It highlights the psychological effects of free, random, and infinite offerings, which can lead to addiction and decision fatigue among users [26][34] - The article stresses the shared responsibility of technology companies, users, and regulators in addressing the negative consequences of excessive convenience and content consumption [41][42] Group 3 - The author proposes a formula for evaluating a product based on four dimensions: practical function, emotional experience, cost, and universality [72][75] - It emphasizes the need for a holistic view of both short-term and long-term benefits and costs when designing or purchasing products [73] - The article concludes with a wish for companies to create good products that enhance user freedom [74]

Group 1: Platinum Price Surge - Platinum prices have surpassed $1300, reaching a nearly five-year high with a year-to-date increase of 44% [1] - In comparison, gold prices have risen nearly 30% this year but are currently consolidating below $3400 per ounce, indicating some weakness [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in platinum is seen as a continuation of global currency devaluation trades, with investors seeking dollar-hedging tools beyond gold, leading to increased interest in silver and platinum [3] - The phenomenon termed "gold fatigue" suggests that as gold prices reach historical highs, investors are looking for opportunities further down the value chain [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a significant market deficit for platinum in 2025, with a shortfall of 966,000 ounces, exceeding previous estimates of 848,000 ounces [5] - Current above-ground inventories can only support three months of demand, indicating a structural deficit that is expected to persist until 2029 [5] - The imbalance between supply and demand is self-reinforcing, with rising prices leading to further consumption of market float inventory, potentially pushing the price discovery mechanism beyond market expectations [5] Group 4: Jewelry Market Demand - Automotive demand remains the primary driver of platinum consumption, accounting for 80% of global usage, but there is a notable increase in demand for platinum jewelry, particularly in China [5] - Analysts highlight a rebound in Chinese consumer interest in platinum jewelry, with a 26% year-on-year increase in platinum jewelry manufacturing, contrasting with a 32% decline in gold jewelry sales [6] Group 5: Diverging Opinions - Despite a generally bullish outlook on platinum, some analysts argue that the market is not as tight as it appears, predicting surpluses in 2024 and 2025 when excluding investment demand [8] - Concerns about global platinum inventory being sufficient challenge the narrative of a supply shortage, suggesting that the market may be misinterpreted [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of continuous efforts in improving work style and combating the "Four Winds" (formalism, bureaucracy, hedonism, and extravagance) to maintain the integrity of the party and public trust [1][2][3]. Group 1: Challenges in Work Style Improvement - The "fatigue syndrome" in work style improvement is characterized by a lack of political sensitivity and effectiveness in addressing the "Four Winds" issues, leading to a complacent attitude [1][2]. - The article highlights that the "fatigue syndrome" is a significant obstacle to deepening work style improvement, necessitating a strong immunity against it [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Progress - Since the 18th National Congress, the central leadership has strengthened work style improvement, successfully addressing previously entrenched issues and transforming public and party conduct [1][2]. - The article notes that while overt manifestations of corruption have decreased, new forms of misconduct have emerged, such as using virtual currencies and private venues for illicit activities [3]. Group 3: Leadership and Responsibility - The article stresses that the "key minority," particularly party leaders, must take the lead in work style improvement, setting an example for others to follow [4]. - It is essential for leaders to consistently adhere to the standards they set for others, ensuring a comprehensive and sustained approach to work style improvement [4].