⚡ Regulators Are Sketching New RulesThe CFTC issued fresh guidance this week and opened a formal rulemaking process for event contracts.The agency aims to clarify the rules governing event contracts as legal controversies mount.6/7 https://t.co/vhSXf3gS2r ...

🔮PREDICTION MARKETS: CFTC ISSUES ADVISORY ON PREDICTION MARKETS WITH EXPANSION OF EVENT CONTRACTSThe U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission made two moves on Thursday to begin establishing policy for prediction market oversight, with a staff-issued advisory to regulated firms and the issuance of a document that marks the start of a formal rulemaking process.The notice also highlights considerations around sports-related event contracts ...

It seems like anything everybody wants to talk about or everything you know, anyone wants to talk about is prediction markets right now. Why do you think that is. What is unique about this moment in time.Well, I think we're really at this unique, pivotal moment in our history, where many have lost faith in traditional news media and traditional information sources. People are trusting and relying on social media. Prediction markets, Twitter.So, you know, all sorts of new media sources and that's not a bad t ...

I'm Contessa Brewer at CNBC. We're watching the prediction markets surrounding event contracts on Iran over the weekend, as the US military was striking targets in Iran, and Iran was striking targets across the Middle East. The prediction markets did incredible volume.For instance, cash volume was up 23% month over month, according to Piper Sandler. We also saw similar growth for Polymarket and Polymarket. Trading in particular, grabbed a lot of attention because at least half a dozen trades came in right b ...

kalshi hit $868m single-day volume and the fed paper showed it outperformed fed funds futures on every FOMC meeting since 2022. tradeweb integrated it across $2.6t daily fixed income flow. but 96% of volume is sports and nevada just ruled those contracts illegal gambling. march 1 enforcement deadline is the binary. federal preemption wins and this is the CME of event contracts. states win and $11b valuation becomes $750m fire sale. watching nevada courts not the volume numbers ...

.@CFTC Staff Issues No-Action Letters Regarding Event Contracts: https://t.co/oelx60JIap ...

Core Insights - Polymarket has begun rolling out its U.S. app, marking its return to the American market after nearly four years of being shut out by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) [2][5] - The rollout follows a no-action letter from the CFTC that allows Polymarket to operate event contracts without triggering standard swap data reporting and recordkeeping mandates [3] - The company is launching its app with sports markets, with plans to expand to other event-driven markets in the future [2] Regulatory Developments - In January 2022, Polymarket was fined $1.4 million by the CFTC for failing to register and was ordered to shut down its markets and refund users [2] - The CFTC's no-action letter issued in September 2023 enabled Polymarket to re-enter the U.S. market under a regulated exchange structure [3][5] - Polymarket's CEO expressed gratitude for the constructive engagement with the CFTC and emphasized the company's commitment to operating transparently within the U.S. regulatory framework [6] Financial Backing - In October 2023, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) announced a strategic investment of $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company at approximately $8 billion pre-investment [4] - The investment grants ICE a financial stake and a central role in distributing Polymarket's event-driven data, along with collaboration on tokenization initiatives [4]

🚨 BIG: Kalshi now supports buying and selling tokenized versions of its event-contract wagers on Solana https://t.co/QNKC58yPh8 ...

We are excited to announce the promotion of Travis McGhee to Global Head of Predictions as we further expand our event contracts and prediction markets offerings.Read more: https://t.co/xx6u34gKM7 https://t.co/3Y5FSQsvUU ...

Regulatory Landscape & Compliance - CFTC regulates prediction markets, including event contracts on elections, sports, and more [1][11] - Prediction markets are designated contract markets and registered with the CFTC, implying obligations to prevent manipulation and abusive trading [11][17][18] - Failure to comply with CFTC obligations results in liability for the organization, not just individual participants [18] - Common compliance solutions include training and awareness programs, especially for those involved in events covered by prediction markets [9][10] Market Growth & Trends - Prediction markets have experienced rapid growth, expanding from elections (e.g, KALSI, Polly Market) to sports and other areas [2][3] - Prediction markets are becoming a permanent asset class, influencing how people follow events like elections [19][20] Risks & Challenges - Insider trading is a significant risk in prediction markets, similar to equity, crypto, and sports betting markets [8][9] - There are risks associated with individuals betting large sums (e.g, liquidating 401Ks) on prediction market outcomes [13][14] - Recent cases involving NBA players and major league pitchers highlight the risks of inappropriate gambling and performance manipulation [5][6] Risk Mitigation & Deterrence - Strong policies and procedures, along with enforcement cases, are crucial for deterring misconduct in prediction markets [15][16] - Enforcement actions raise awareness about the risks of participating in these markets [15] - Transparency in prediction markets allows for quick detection of anomalous activity [7][8]