Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time now for the big picture. So, let's welcome in the team from Charles Schwab.We're joined by Kathy Jones, fixed income strategist, the chief fixed income strategist, I should say, Schwab Center for Financial Research and Michelle Gibli, director of international equity research and strategy. Ladies, thanks so much for joining me. Kathy, I do want to start with you.Uh, given everything we've heard as far as the data is concerned, obviously the SCOTUS ruling on Trum ...

It's time for the big picture. So, let's welcome in the team from Charles Schwab. We've got Colin Martin, head of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research, and Mike Townsen, managing director, legislative and regulatory affairs at Charles Schwab.All right, I do want to start with you, Colin, because obviously we got this CPI print behaving itself. Uh, we've seen a move on the 10-year. Talk us through your thoughts this morning.>> Yeah, certainly a good report uh pretty much o ...

Core Insights - Core CPI inflation has decreased to 2.5%, marking the lowest level since 2021 [1] - Consumer price index data for January was cooler than expected, indicating a potential easing in inflationary pressures [1] - The impact of Trump tariffs on goods prices has been minimal, and rent inflation is continuing to decline [1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data release, S&P 500 futures showed little change, suggesting a market response that may favor a more dovish Federal Reserve [1]

Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve has been cutting rates, but the ten-year bond yields have remained relatively stable, indicating market expectations are not fully aligned with Fed actions [1][2] - Market pricing suggests expectations for two rate cuts this year, with a new chair likely to implement these cuts, although the overall economic data does not strongly support aggressive rate reductions [3][4] Economic Data and Labor Market - Recent labor market data shows stability, with unemployment rates decreasing to 4.3% and robust job creation primarily in the private sector, suggesting a wait-and-see approach from policymakers rather than aggressive cuts [5][12] - The labor market's recovery may lead to consumers being in a better financial position, which could delay disinflationary pressures that the Fed hopes to see [10][21] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Inflation expectations have remained sticky, and the Fed's previous low-rate policies during the pandemic may have contributed to current inflation levels [6][7] - The wealth effect from rising equity markets and home values has benefited higher net worth individuals, while government stimulus during the pandemic has also played a role in consumer financial health [8][9] Future Rate Cut Expectations - There is skepticism regarding the potential for aggressive rate cuts under the new chair, with historical context suggesting that the Fed may refrain from significant cuts even in the face of productivity booms [11][14] - The market's expectation for a June rate cut has dropped below 50%, indicating a shift in sentiment following recent labor market data [17][18] Technological Impact on Labor Market - The discussion around AI and job losses raises questions about the Fed's ability to influence labor demand, as changes in the labor market equilibrium may not be effectively addressed through rate cuts [20][21] - The complexity of the relationship between productivity, inflation, and interest rates suggests that the Fed's policy decisions will need to be carefully considered in light of these dynamics [23]

When I say the benchmark revision that goes to last March was almost 900,000 down. There are other revisions from the birth death model that come in the months after that. By December of last year, the downward revision was over a million jobs.Yeah. So now we got the best possible outcome today. We knew these revisions were coming and they're going to talk about what's behind them.But to see the most recent readings, we've got some lift in the payrolls in January is just one month. But we got some lift and ...

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments in cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website discusses the complexities and high risks associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, highlighting the potential for significant financial loss [1]. - It encourages users to conduct their own research and fully understand the instruments and risks involved before making investment decisions [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential appointment of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the need for a change in the Fed's approach to economics and monetary policy [1][2]. Group 1: Kevin Warsh's Background and Views - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, is seen as a maverick who advocates for a significant overhaul of the Federal Reserve's operations and policies [1][2]. - Warsh has previously expressed skepticism regarding the Fed's extensive use of its balance sheet, which has expanded to nearly $9 trillion, arguing for a smaller balance sheet approach [3][4]. - His hawkish stance on monetary policy could lead to upward pressure on interest rates, which may not align with the preferences of President Trump [4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics and Support - Trump's support for Warsh is partly influenced by Warsh's family connections to the Lauder family, which has ties to Trump [5]. - The article suggests that Warsh's appointment could lead to a more contentious environment within the Fed, with potential for dissenting opinions on policy decisions [7]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead for the Fed - The current Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is characterized by a mix of hawks and doves, making consensus-building a challenging task for the next Fed Chair [8]. - The article notes that the incoming data makes it difficult to assess whether current monetary policy is restrictive, neutral, or otherwise [6].

If Powell was trying to calm things down, it didn’t work on the hard‑money crowd. Peter Schiff, who has been hammering the case for gold and silver for years, immediately framed the market’s reaction as a referendum on the Fed.When I put those pieces together, it feels like the Fed is quietly saying, “We see it, but we’re not going to let gold bully us,” which is not the message metals traders wanted to hear.The combination of rate‑cut expectations, geopolitical stress and central‑bank diversification has d ...

Join the Insights from Fidelity Wealth Management℠ team as we look ahead to the new year. We will discuss the many factors influencing today’s economy and how they are shaping the financial markets as we head into 2026. We’ll also talk about how to handle periods of uncertainty, ways to help your portfolio stay on target, and some wealth planning strategies to help you in the year ahead. Specific topics we’ll cover include: - The latest news on Fed policy , inflation, the labor market, and consumer spending ...

Core Insights - The article provides a comprehensive market analysis focusing on the S&P 500 index, highlighting its performance and trends in the current investment landscape [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 has shown significant fluctuations, reflecting broader economic conditions and investor sentiment [1] - Recent data indicates a notable increase in the index, with a percentage change that suggests a bullish trend in the market [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The analysis identifies sectors within the S&P 500 that are poised for growth, presenting potential investment opportunities for stakeholders [1] - Specific companies within these sectors are highlighted as strong performers, indicating favorable conditions for investment [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators influencing the S&P 500's performance are discussed, including interest rates and inflation trends [1] - The article emphasizes the correlation between these indicators and market movements, providing insights for future investment strategies [1]