About this content About Oliver Haill Oliver has been writing about companies and markets since the early 2000s, cutting his teeth as a financial journalist at Growth Company Investor with a focusing on AIM companies and small caps, before a few years later becoming a section editor and then head of research. He joined Proactive after a couple of years freelancing, where he worked for the Financial Times Group, ITV, Press Association, Reuters sports desk, the London Olympic News Service, Rugby World Cup ...

Market Overview - The market is at a critical juncture where a strong rebound could indicate the end of a healthy pullback, while breaking below the 50-day moving averages could signal a more serious correction [2][3] - The ongoing government shutdown adds uncertainty to federal operations and economic policy, but key data releases, including the October CPI report, remain on schedule [2][4] Earnings Reports - Disney's earnings report is anticipated to provide insights into streaming profitability, theme park attendance, and overall health of the entertainment sector amid economic uncertainties [5] - Cisco's earnings will be crucial for understanding enterprise technology spending and demand for networking equipment, particularly in the context of economic concerns and elevated interest rates [7] Economic Indicators - The October CPI report is expected to significantly influence Federal Reserve expectations for future monetary policy, with both headline and core CPI readings being closely scrutinized [4] - The upcoming bond auctions will test investor appetite for longer-duration Treasuries amid evolving inflation expectations and fiscal concerns due to the government shutdown [8] Sector Insights - The entertainment sector's health will be assessed through Disney's performance, particularly in terms of consumer discretionary spending and travel demand [5] - Insights into global consumer health and technology adoption will be provided by international earnings reports, including those from Sea Limited and JD.com [7]

Market Outlook - The market is still considered a buy, with earnings coming in better than expectations and a projected 13% year-over-year EPS growth for 2026 [1][5]. Investment Focus - There is a recommendation to focus on midcaps and small caps, especially as government reopens consumer plays, rather than solely on large-cap tech stocks [2][3]. - The earnings growth potential of companies outside the concentrated mega-cap tech space is highlighted, suggesting a diversification strategy [4][5]. Economic Conditions - The current economic environment is described as bending but not breaking, with expectations of higher earnings growth participation from sectors outside of tech over the next 12 months [5][6]. - The potential for seasonal earnings growth is noted, particularly as the year-end approaches and considering the midterm election year [6]. Government Shutdown - There is optimism regarding the resolution of the government shutdown, with indications of increasing friction and economic loss prompting discussions for a resolution [7].

Group 1 - Boston Fed President Susan Collins indicated that it may be appropriate to ease policy further this year if supported by data, while maintaining a modestly restricted policy stance [1][2] - Collins emphasized the need for the Fed to restore price stability while managing risks of labor market weakening, noting that the labor market is not expected to soften significantly [2][4] - There is a current state of heightened uncertainty affecting firms' hiring decisions, with productivity enhancements tempering hiring amid solid economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - Collins anticipates that hiring will increase as firms adjust to the new tariff environment, with inflation expected to remain elevated into next year and gradually return to the 2% target over the medium term [3] - Fed Vice Chair Phil Jefferson highlighted the dual risks of employment being tilted to the downside and inflation to the upside, reflecting the challenging economic landscape [4][5] - The Fed is navigating a complex situation with higher inflation pressures on one side and employment pressures on the other, relying on data that may be becoming less reliable [5] Group 3 - Doug McMillan from Walmart noted that the company is not hiring more and is instead focusing on getting existing employees to perform new tasks, indicating a shift in retail strategies amid competition with Amazon [6] - Retailers are recognizing the existential challenges posed by current market conditions, as indicated by conversations with various industry players [6][7]

Economic Indicators - The US Q2 GDP was revised upward to +3.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), exceeding expectations of no change at +3.3% [2] - Q2 personal consumption was also revised upward to +2.5%, stronger than the anticipated +1.7% [2] - The Q2 core PCE price index was unexpectedly revised upward to +2.6%, surpassing expectations of no change at +2.5% [2] Labor Market - Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -14,000 to a 2-month low of 218,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected increase to 233,000 [3] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid noted that the labor market remains largely in balance despite signs of cooling [4] Capital Spending - August core capital goods new orders (excluding defense and aircraft) rose by +0.6% month-over-month, stronger than expectations of no change [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Comments from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid suggest that the Fed may not need to lower interest rates soon, maintaining a "slightly restrictive" policy stance to combat high inflation [4] - Markets are pricing in an 84% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [4] Currency Market - The dollar index (DXY) increased by +0.43% to a 3-week high, driven by hawkish US economic reports and liquidity demand due to stock market weakness [1] - The EUR/USD pair decreased by -0.44% to a 2-week low, influenced by the dollar's strength and central bank divergence, with the ECB seen as nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article is a breaking news story, indicating that full coverage and detailed analysis will be available soon [1] Group 1 - The news is currently under development, and specific details regarding the company or industry are not yet provided [1]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is up +0.67%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up +0.46%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up +1.19% [1] - September E-mini S&P futures are up +0.63%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures are up +1.19% [1] Economic Indicators - Weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -33,000 to 231,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected 240,000 [4] - The September Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey rose by +23.5 to an 8-month high of 23.2, surpassing expectations of 1.7 [4] - August leading indicators fell -0.5% month-over-month, worse than the expected -0.2% [5] Federal Reserve Actions - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and signaled another 50 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year [3][8] - Markets are pricing in an 86% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [5] Stock Movements - Intel surged by +25% after Nvidia agreed to invest $5 billion in the company for co-developing chips [2][11] - CrowdStrike Home is up more than +10% following a positive investor briefing on its AI strategy [12] - 89bio increased by +86% after Roche announced its acquisition for $3.5 billion [12] - Darden Restaurants is down more than -9% after forecasting adjusted EPS below consensus [14] - ARM Holdings is down more than -4% following Nvidia's investment in Intel [15]

Inflation Data - The U.S. annual inflation rate accelerated to 2.9% in August 2025, the highest since January, after remaining at 2.7% in June and July [2] - On a monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.4%, exceeding forecasts of 0.3%, driven by persistent gasoline prices and stronger food inflation [3] - Core inflation remained steady at 3.1%, with a monthly increase in core CPI of 0.3%, consistent with July's growth [4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in Q2 of 2025, rebounding from a 0.5% contraction in Q1, with the figure revised slightly higher from the first estimate of 3% [6] - For Q3 of 2025, total S&P 500 index earnings are expected to increase by 5.1% year-over-year, supported by a 5.9% rise in revenues, with positive revisions trends noted [7] Federal Reserve Policy - There is a 92.5% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in the September meeting, while the likelihood of a 50-basis point cut is 7.5%, with expectations shifting due to the recent inflation data [8] Investment Opportunities - In light of the economic conditions and potential moderate rate cuts, several large-cap blend ETFs are highlighted as attractive options, including: - First Trust Dow 30 Equal Weight ETF (EDOW) – Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [9] - iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF (ITOT) – Zacks Rank 2 [9] - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) – Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) [9] - iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) – Zacks Rank 2 [9] - Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF (SPHQ) – Zacks Rank 2 [10]

Economic Indicators - The recent jobless claims report showed an unexpected increase to 263,000, which is significantly higher than the anticipated 212,000, indicating potential labor market weakness [2][4] - Inflation numbers are reported at 2.9% year-over-year and 3.1% on core, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures despite expectations [3][4] Federal Reserve Implications - The Federal Reserve may face challenges in its monetary policy decisions due to the labor market's potential weakening, which could necessitate a rate cut if the jobless claims trend continues [4][11] - If inflation remains stable, the Fed might consider a modest rate cut of 25 basis points [4] Market Dynamics - There is a significant amount of capital sitting in Treasury bills, indicating that large institutions may not be fully engaged in the stock market [8] - The stock market is expected to see upward movement, with predictions of the Dow approaching 50,000 in the fourth quarter [9] Gold and Alternative Investments - Gold has recently broken its inflation-adjusted all-time high, suggesting strong investor interest and potential for continued growth in this asset class [14] - The ongoing competition between gold and Bitcoin is anticipated, highlighting the evolving landscape of alternative investments [15]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].