Government Finance - Federal tax revenues in 1974 were 16.87% of GDP [1] - Federal tax revenues in 2025 are projected to be 17.3% of GDP [1] - Federal spending in 1974 was 17.27% of GDP [1] - Federal spending in 2025 is projected to be 22.8% of GDP [1] Key Issue - Spending growth is identified as the primary fiscal challenge [1] - The assertion that tax revenues were historically higher is refuted [1]

Market Technicals & Supply/Demand - The underperformance was largely driven by technical factors, including uncertainty around tax exemption and pulled-forward supply [1] - Supply wasn't met by enough buyers due to questions around tariffs and concerns around federal spending [2] - A recovery of the technical sell-off has been observed recently [3] - Supply tends to dampen a bit in the fourth quarter, which is constructive for yields [11] Federal Funding & State Budgets - Reduced federal funding is expected under the current administration, impacting state budgets [3] - Medicaid accounts for approximately 60% of state revenues from the federal government, making it a key area of impact [4] - States have limited options: cut coverage or make difficult budget decisions [5] California's Fiscal Situation - California's revenues are more than 50% higher than pre-COVID levels, indicating a spending problem rather than a revenue problem [7] - California is dipping into its reserves despite 20+% equity market gains, which is concerning [7] - A credit downgrade for California is possible as early as this summer [9] - A downgrade would be a notch downgrade from A to single-A, still very strong [8] Investment Strategy - Investments favor local geos and public schools financed by property taxes due to their reliability [9] - The industry expects to achieve the year of carry for 2025 [11]

Big day for Swifties out there. Good morning everybody. I'm Aaron Gilchrist in for Joe and Savannah.And we begin this morning in Washington. The Senate expected to once again vote on a plan to reopen the government on day three of the federal government shutdown, but it's not expected to move forward as both Republicans and Democrats show little signs of budging on their demands. President Trump has described the shutdown as an unprecedented opportunity to make cuts to federal spending.Yesterday, the presid ...

Now, thankfully, President Trump is trying to mitigate the damage as much as possible. His administration is working to limit the harm to the American people. But the longer this goes on, the more pain will be inflicted because it is inevitable when the government shuts down.The sad thing about it is that every single bit of this was entirely avoidable. Democrats could have worked with us in a bi partisan manner to avert this unnecessary and very harmful shutdown, but instead they did something that is rath ...

As we speak here this morning, there are hundreds of thousands of federal workers who are getting their furlow notices. Nearly half of our civilian workforce is being sent home. These are hardworking Americans who work for our federal government.Our troops and our border patrol agents will have to go to work, but they'll be working without pay. Food assistance, veterans benefits, and vital support for women and children are all coming to a halt. Now, thankfully, President Trump is trying to mitigate the dam ...

Government Shutdown & Fiscal Policy - A potential government shutdown is looming, with congressional leaders convening at the White House to discuss solutions [1][3][5] - Democrats and Republicans have disagreements on spending levels, with Democrats pushing for trillions more in spending [59] - A short-term stopgap spending bill passed by the House to keep the government open through November is being blocked by Democrats [7] - A government shutdown could delay the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report and potentially lead to mass firings of non-essential workers [7] - Senator Ron Johnson proposes automatic rolling 14-day continuing appropriations to eliminate shutdowns [24] - The White House is using the threat of permanent layoffs as a negotiating tactic [19] - Government spending has grown out of control, with the solution being to reduce the size of the federal government [20] - A government shutdown could raise the unemployment rate to 47% [66] International Relations & Trade - President Trump is laying out a plan to end the war in Gaza, with details to be discussed [3][4] - The proposal calls for the release of all remaining hostages immediately, but in no case more than 72 hours [32] - Wisconsin exported $27 billion of goods into the world in 2024 [26] - President Trump is considering potential bailouts for farmers [27] - President Trump is threatening fresh tariffs related to furniture and movies [52]

Fiscal Policy - Russia aims to hold federal spending flat next year [1] - Russia is considering tax hikes to address a widening budget gap [1] Economic Impact - Fiscal pressure from the war in Ukraine continues to mount [1]

The Trump administration has restored a website that tracks federal spending, in a victory for lawmakers who said the White House was using the blackout to freeze funding without public disclosures https://t.co/M3XJMFwqRN ...

The One Big Beautiful Bill reduces federal spending on America’s food-stamp programme by 15% by 2034. We explain what that could mean for people who rely on the benefit https://t.co/tuESSQxt02 ...

Government Spending - Congress canceled $9 billion in federal spending [1] - Spending cuts targeted foreign aid and public broadcasting [1] - The action aligns with President Trump's defunding efforts [1]