美股本周剧烈震荡，市场的裂缝越来越清楚。 本周早些时候，市场市值一度蒸发超过1.5万亿美元，逼迫交易员重新掂量几个原本被默认的前提：美国经济还 能不能撑起又一年两位数的涨幅？AI承诺的效率提升，会不会反过来挤压一批现有公司的生存空间？散户的交 易热情是否把一些本该"避险"的东西炒成了高波动品种？ 这次受冲击的不止软件股。小盘股、贵金属矿企、数字资产相关公司、专业服务公司，几乎都在同一周里露出了 弱点。其中软件板块的波动最吓人，以大型科技股为主的动量股，也出现了自疫情以来最重的一次单日下挫。 不确定性还在往外扩散。Horizon Investments研究与量化策略主管Mike Dickson说："投资者一紧张，全球市场里 那些估值和仓位被拉到最满的地方，往往最先疼。"即便随后出现反弹，他也提醒，这类"大跌后的反抽"经常发 生在压力并未解除的阶段。 Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC创始人Thomas Thornton表示： 贵金属沦为"赌博工具" 黄金和白银的价格波动明显偏离"稳"的范畴，相关金属公司股价自然随之起舞。 美国最大的黄金矿企Newmont Corp.在2025年翻倍，一些较小的矿企 ...

作为万兴科技旗下视频创意明星产品，万兴喵影先在海外市场取得成功，其海外版Wondershare Filmora 系列产品风靡200多个国家和地区，跻身全球知名视频编辑软件行列。伴随中国的短视频、直播行业崛 起，万兴喵影2017年回归国内市场，近年来，其在视频剪辑行业率先实现桌面端、移动端覆盖，并成功 牵手华为、荣耀、英特尔等品牌融入国产生态圈，成长为最受欢迎的视频创作工具之一。 公开资料显示，万兴科技深耕数字创意软件二十余年，是中国数字创意软件领域产品覆盖面广、营收体 量大、全球化程度高的A股上市公司，被视为"中国版Adobe"。在视频创意业务领域，万兴科技持续以 AI推进产品焕新，应用范围已覆盖专业视频创作、移动视频、视频生成、视频转换、AI漫剧、数字人 等领域。 本报讯(记者舒娅疆)2月8日，记者从万兴科技（300624）集团股份有限公司(以下简称"万兴科技")获 悉，该公司加码推进创意平权，旗下新一代视频创意平台万兴喵影桌面端在近期迎来升级，聚焦"视频 免费剪，AI更出片"，率先在国内推行"基础普惠+AI增值"的新模式，旨在推动视频创意行业从"基础功 能赋能"迈向"AI驱动的专业剪辑"新阶段，助力"人人 ...

持股过节，关注成长 ——2026年2月五维行业比较观点 策略组 张宇生 SAC编号：S0930521030001 策略组 王国兴 SAC编号：S0930524070013 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 核心观点 2026年2月8日 证券研究报告 1 国海富兰克林基金 请务必参阅正文之后的重要声明 五维行业比较框架介绍。股价表现受多重因素影响，单一指标难以有效指导行业比较。想要做好行业比较，需要对各种可能 影响股价的因素均进行分析并做出综合判断，并且对于未来可能的市场主导因素，应该赋予更高的权重。基于此，我们综合 市场风格、基本面、资金面、交易面、估值五个维度，构建了"五维行业比较框架" ，在非财报季时期，我们对于五个维 度进行等权打分，而在财报季，则给予基本面维度更高权重，并降低市场风格及估值维度的权重。 历史回测来看，五维行业比较框架表现优异，得分越高的行业表现往往更好。通过复盘2016年至2025年2月期间五维行业比 较框架的历史表现，可以发现该框架下得分越高的行业股价表现往往更好，按得分高低将行业依次分为第1组、第2组 、第3 组、第4组、第5组，各组的年化收益率分别为11.8%、1.3%、-1.4%、 ...

分组1 - Intuit's stock has declined approximately 45% since its 52-week high of $813 due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence [1] - The stock sell-off began in July 2025, indicating a significant market reaction to AI-related fears [1] - David, a long-term investor, emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality growth stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market [1] 分组2 - David's investment strategy includes focusing on growth and momentum stocks, utilizing options for strategy [1] - He previously advised investors to buy at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009, leading to substantial gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the following decade [1]

分组1 - Intuit's stock has declined approximately 45% since its 52-week high of $813 due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence [1] - The stock sell-off began in July 2025, indicating a significant market reaction to AI-related fears [1] - David, a long-term investor, emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality growth stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market [1] 分组2 - David's investment strategy includes focusing on growth and momentum stocks, utilizing options for strategy [1] - He successfully advised investors to buy at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009, leading to substantial gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the following decade [1]

- 净利润 384.58 亿美元 ，同比大增 60%(但 GAAP 利润受 OpenAI 投资亏损拖累， 调整后净利润 309 亿元 ，增⻓ 23%) - 成本端，服务与其他成本同比上升 25.2%至 224.73 亿美元，主要源于数据中心扩张与 AI 算力投入， 但毛利率提升至 68.0% (上年同期 68.7%)，显示规 模效应与运营效率优化。 运营利润 382.75 亿美元 ，同比增⻓20.9%。 市场质疑 · 资本⽀出的⿊洞⻛险 - 本季度资本支出高达 375 亿美元，同比暴增 66%，多用于 GPU 与数据中心; FY26Q2核心财务数据 - 2026 财年第二季度总营收达 812.73 亿美元 ，同比增⻓ 16.7%，驱动核心为云服务收入增⻓ 26%至 515亿美元，AI 驱动的云业务持续高增⻓。 - Azure 与云服务收入同比激增 39% ，带动服务与其他收入达 648 亿美元，贡献超 80%营收，云业务成为核心增⻓引擎。 - 投资者质疑: 若 AI 硬件使用周期短于服务合同期限，折旧压力可能侵蚀利润，形成"期限错配"; - 与 Meta 将 AI 基建表外化不同，微软选择全额表内折旧，导致云 ...

美股本周剧烈震荡，市场的裂缝越来越清楚。 本周早些时候，市场市值一度蒸发超过1.5万亿美元，逼迫交易员重新掂量几个原本被默认的前提： 美国经济还能不能撑起又一年两位数的涨幅？AI承诺的效 率提升，会不会反过来挤压一批现有公司的生存空间？散户的交易热情是否把一些本该"避险"的东西炒成了高波动品种？ 这次受冲击的不止软件股。小盘股、贵金属矿企、数字资产相关公司、专业服务公司，几乎都在同一周里露出了弱点。其中软件板块的波动最吓人，以大型科 技股为主的动量股，也出现了自疫情以来最重的一次单日下挫。 不确定性还在往外扩散。 Horizon Investments研究与量化策略主管Mike Dickson说："投资者一紧张，全球市场里那些估值和仓位被拉到最满的地方，往往最 先疼。"即便随后出现反弹，他也提醒，这类"大跌后的反抽"经常发生在压力并未解除的阶段。 Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC创始人Thomas Thornton表示： 市场到处都是坑，有些坑正在变成特定资产和板块的陷阱。 小盘股遭遇双重打击 今年年初，投资者从估值过高的科技股转向受益于经济增长回升和利率下降的公司，小盘股是主要目标。这一押注 ...

Core Insights - Recent earnings reports from major technology companies have raised investor concerns regarding returns on increased artificial intelligence (AI) spending, with mixed results across different firms [1] - Some companies have successfully leveraged growth opportunities from the ongoing AI boom, while others have not impressed investors [1] Company Summaries Apple (AAPL) - Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani maintains a buy rating on Apple with a price target of $330, while TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating with a target of $289 [3] - January App Store revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, but Gaming revenues fell by 3% for the third consecutive month due to tougher comparisons [4] - Other App Store categories saw double-digit growth, with Music up 21%, Other up 21%, Photo and Video up 18%, Social Networking up 11%, and Entertainment up 10% [5] - Services revenue grew by 14% in the December quarter, surpassing App Store growth of 6.5%, with better-than-expected revenue and EPS reported [6] - Daryanani expects continued benefits from faster-growing areas like Apple Pay and iCloud, despite less than 10% growth in App Store revenues [7] MongoDB (MDB) - Bank of America analyst Koji Ikeda reaffirms a buy rating on MongoDB with a price target raised to $500 from $480, while TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating with a target of $380 [8] - Ikeda expresses optimism about MongoDB's Atlas revenue growth, supported by a successful enterprise and product-led growth strategy, as well as an expanding AI product lineup [9] - MongoDB's database is noted for its speed, scalability, and document-based structure, differentiating it from traditional relational databases [10] - Despite a higher valuation compared to peers, Ikeda believes the premium is justified due to MongoDB's 30% Atlas growth versus 11% for competitors [11] Western Digital (WDC) - Western Digital reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results, driven by strong demand for hard drives and flash storage amid the AI wave [13] - Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan maintains a buy rating with a price target of $345, while TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating with a target of $285 [13] - The company anticipates the AI and cloud storage market to grow at a CAGR of over 25% through 2030, with HDDs expected to gain market share [14] - Mohan highlights long-term growth targets, aiming for mid-20% CAGR in nearline exabytes and overall revenue growth above 20% CAGR [15] - Western Digital plans capital spending at 4% to 6% of annual revenue and aims for a free cash flow margin exceeding 30% [16]

《周观点：SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫 星，剑指太空算力 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2026.2.1 《AWS 和谷歌拉开"云涨价"序幕， 重视 AI 基建产业链 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.28 《周观点：SpaceX 有望引领太空革命 —行业周报》-2026.1.25 周观点：2026 年，多模态模型有望迎来 DS 时刻 ——行业周报 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 计算机 刘逍遥（分析师） liuxiaoyao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090001 市场回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6），沪深 300 指数下跌 1.33%，计算机指 数下跌 3.27%。 周观点：2026 年，多模态模型有望迎来 DS 时刻 （1）2026 年，多模态模型有望迎来 DS 时刻 OpenAI 于 2024 年 2 月推出的初代 Sora 模型，堪称视频领域的 GPT‑1 时刻， 2025 年 9 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sell-off in software stocks is considered overdone by Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, who argues that the market has overreacted to concerns about AI disrupting the software industry [1][5]. Software Industry Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined 30% from its peak, entering bear market territory, driven by fears surrounding AI's impact on software companies [1]. - Huang believes that AI tools will complement existing software rather than replace it, suggesting that the current market sentiment is illogical [5]. Attractive Software Stocks - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Stock down 27% from its high, currently trading at 26 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 24% last quarter and a 160% increase in paid copilot seats [6]. - **Datadog (DDOG)**: Stock down 47% from its high, trading at 53 times adjusted earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 20% last quarter despite high R&D spending [7]. - **AppLovin (APP)**: Stock down 52% from its high, trading at 45 times earnings, with earnings up 96% last quarter [8]. - **Atlassian (TEAM)**: Stock down 70% from its high, trading at 22 times earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 27% last quarter [9]. - **HubSpot (HUBS)**: Stock down 73% from its high, trading at 25 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 22% last quarter [9]. Market Outlook - While software stocks may continue to decline in the near term, long-term investors are likely to benefit from purchasing stocks at reasonable prices, anticipating significant earnings growth over the next five years [10].