分组1 - Intuit's stock has declined approximately 45% since its 52-week high of $813 due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence [1] - The stock sell-off began in July 2025, indicating a significant market reaction to AI-related fears [1] - David, a long-term investor, emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality growth stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market [1] 分组2 - David's investment strategy includes focusing on growth and momentum stocks, utilizing options for strategy [1] - He previously advised investors to buy at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009, leading to substantial gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the following decade [1]

分组1 - Intuit's stock has declined approximately 45% since its 52-week high of $813 due to concerns over potential disruptions from artificial intelligence [1] - The stock sell-off began in July 2025, indicating a significant market reaction to AI-related fears [1] - David, a long-term investor, emphasizes the importance of investing in high-quality growth stocks that are reasonably priced and likely to outperform the market [1] 分组2 - David's investment strategy includes focusing on growth and momentum stocks, utilizing options for strategy [1] - He successfully advised investors to buy at the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009, leading to substantial gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq over the following decade [1]

- 净利润 384.58 亿美元 ，同比大增 60%(但 GAAP 利润受 OpenAI 投资亏损拖累， 调整后净利润 309 亿元 ，增⻓ 23%) - 成本端，服务与其他成本同比上升 25.2%至 224.73 亿美元，主要源于数据中心扩张与 AI 算力投入， 但毛利率提升至 68.0% (上年同期 68.7%)，显示规 模效应与运营效率优化。 运营利润 382.75 亿美元 ，同比增⻓20.9%。 市场质疑 · 资本⽀出的⿊洞⻛险 - 本季度资本支出高达 375 亿美元，同比暴增 66%，多用于 GPU 与数据中心; FY26Q2核心财务数据 - 2026 财年第二季度总营收达 812.73 亿美元 ，同比增⻓ 16.7%，驱动核心为云服务收入增⻓ 26%至 515亿美元，AI 驱动的云业务持续高增⻓。 - Azure 与云服务收入同比激增 39% ，带动服务与其他收入达 648 亿美元，贡献超 80%营收，云业务成为核心增⻓引擎。 - 投资者质疑: 若 AI 硬件使用周期短于服务合同期限，折旧压力可能侵蚀利润，形成"期限错配"; - 与 Meta 将 AI 基建表外化不同，微软选择全额表内折旧，导致云 ...

美股本周剧烈震荡，市场的裂缝越来越清楚。 本周早些时候，市场市值一度蒸发超过1.5万亿美元，逼迫交易员重新掂量几个原本被默认的前提： 美国经济还能不能撑起又一年两位数的涨幅？AI承诺的效 率提升，会不会反过来挤压一批现有公司的生存空间？散户的交易热情是否把一些本该"避险"的东西炒成了高波动品种？ 这次受冲击的不止软件股。小盘股、贵金属矿企、数字资产相关公司、专业服务公司，几乎都在同一周里露出了弱点。其中软件板块的波动最吓人，以大型科 技股为主的动量股，也出现了自疫情以来最重的一次单日下挫。 不确定性还在往外扩散。 Horizon Investments研究与量化策略主管Mike Dickson说："投资者一紧张，全球市场里那些估值和仓位被拉到最满的地方，往往最 先疼。"即便随后出现反弹，他也提醒，这类"大跌后的反抽"经常发生在压力并未解除的阶段。 Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC创始人Thomas Thornton表示： 市场到处都是坑，有些坑正在变成特定资产和板块的陷阱。 小盘股遭遇双重打击 今年年初，投资者从估值过高的科技股转向受益于经济增长回升和利率下降的公司，小盘股是主要目标。这一押注 ...

Core Insights - Recent earnings reports from major technology companies have raised investor concerns regarding returns on increased artificial intelligence (AI) spending, with mixed results across different firms [1] - Some companies have successfully leveraged growth opportunities from the ongoing AI boom, while others have not impressed investors [1] Company Summaries Apple (AAPL) - Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani maintains a buy rating on Apple with a price target of $330, while TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating with a target of $289 [3] - January App Store revenue increased by 7% year-over-year, but Gaming revenues fell by 3% for the third consecutive month due to tougher comparisons [4] - Other App Store categories saw double-digit growth, with Music up 21%, Other up 21%, Photo and Video up 18%, Social Networking up 11%, and Entertainment up 10% [5] - Services revenue grew by 14% in the December quarter, surpassing App Store growth of 6.5%, with better-than-expected revenue and EPS reported [6] - Daryanani expects continued benefits from faster-growing areas like Apple Pay and iCloud, despite less than 10% growth in App Store revenues [7] MongoDB (MDB) - Bank of America analyst Koji Ikeda reaffirms a buy rating on MongoDB with a price target raised to $500 from $480, while TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating with a target of $380 [8] - Ikeda expresses optimism about MongoDB's Atlas revenue growth, supported by a successful enterprise and product-led growth strategy, as well as an expanding AI product lineup [9] - MongoDB's database is noted for its speed, scalability, and document-based structure, differentiating it from traditional relational databases [10] - Despite a higher valuation compared to peers, Ikeda believes the premium is justified due to MongoDB's 30% Atlas growth versus 11% for competitors [11] Western Digital (WDC) - Western Digital reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results, driven by strong demand for hard drives and flash storage amid the AI wave [13] - Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan maintains a buy rating with a price target of $345, while TipRanks' AI Analyst has an "outperform" rating with a target of $285 [13] - The company anticipates the AI and cloud storage market to grow at a CAGR of over 25% through 2030, with HDDs expected to gain market share [14] - Mohan highlights long-term growth targets, aiming for mid-20% CAGR in nearline exabytes and overall revenue growth above 20% CAGR [15] - Western Digital plans capital spending at 4% to 6% of annual revenue and aims for a free cash flow margin exceeding 30% [16]

《周观点：SpaceX 申请部署百万颗卫 星，剑指太空算力 — 行 业 周 报 》- 2026.2.1 《AWS 和谷歌拉开"云涨价"序幕， 重视 AI 基建产业链 —行业点评报告》 -2026.1.28 《周观点：SpaceX 有望引领太空革命 —行业周报》-2026.1.25 周观点：2026 年，多模态模型有望迎来 DS 时刻 ——行业周报 2026 年 02 月 08 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 计算机 沪深300 相关研究报告 计算机 刘逍遥（分析师） liuxiaoyao@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520090001 市场回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6），沪深 300 指数下跌 1.33%，计算机指 数下跌 3.27%。 周观点：2026 年，多模态模型有望迎来 DS 时刻 （1）2026 年，多模态模型有望迎来 DS 时刻 OpenAI 于 2024 年 2 月推出的初代 Sora 模型，堪称视频领域的 GPT‑1 时刻， 2025 年 9 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sell-off in software stocks is considered overdone by Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang, who argues that the market has overreacted to concerns about AI disrupting the software industry [1][5]. Software Industry Overview - The S&P North American Technology Software Index has declined 30% from its peak, entering bear market territory, driven by fears surrounding AI's impact on software companies [1]. - Huang believes that AI tools will complement existing software rather than replace it, suggesting that the current market sentiment is illogical [5]. Attractive Software Stocks - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Stock down 27% from its high, currently trading at 26 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 24% last quarter and a 160% increase in paid copilot seats [6]. - **Datadog (DDOG)**: Stock down 47% from its high, trading at 53 times adjusted earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 20% last quarter despite high R&D spending [7]. - **AppLovin (APP)**: Stock down 52% from its high, trading at 45 times earnings, with earnings up 96% last quarter [8]. - **Atlassian (TEAM)**: Stock down 70% from its high, trading at 22 times earnings, with adjusted earnings increasing 27% last quarter [9]. - **HubSpot (HUBS)**: Stock down 73% from its high, trading at 25 times earnings, with adjusted earnings up 22% last quarter [9]. Market Outlook - While software stocks may continue to decline in the near term, long-term investors are likely to benefit from purchasing stocks at reasonable prices, anticipating significant earnings growth over the next five years [10].

Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant growth and compounding, with a substantial contracted backlog indicating future revenue growth [1] - The integration of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot enhances customer retention by providing a comprehensive infrastructure to applications solution [1] - The company's deliberate increase in investments is aimed at sustaining this growth trajectory [1] Group 1 - Microsoft has a large contracted backlog that represents future revenue potential [1] - The combination of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot creates a synergistic effect that increases customer stickiness [1] - Higher investments are a strategic choice to support ongoing growth [1]

Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant growth and compounding, with a substantial contracted backlog indicating future revenue growth [1] - The integration of Azure, Foundry, and Copilot enhances customer retention by providing a comprehensive infrastructure to applications solution [1] - The company's deliberate increase in investments is aimed at sustaining this growth trajectory [1] Group 1 - Microsoft has a large contracted backlog that represents future revenue potential [1] - The synergy between Azure, Foundry, and Copilot contributes to greater customer stickiness [1] - Higher investments are a strategic choice to support ongoing growth [1]

两个核心争议是：传统软件企业能否在技术重构和人机协同中保持竞争力，以及未来利润最终可能会流向具备高效AI编排能力的公司。高盛认为，投资者情绪需2- 3季度稳定基本面支撑，软件板块短期估值压力依旧，熊市风险可能被延后而非消除。 高盛技术研究团队指出，软件类股当前面临的核心挑战集中在应用软件层的新竞争格局，以及基础设施公司资本支出的回报率问题。 Anthropic的一次常规更新在本周重挫软件股，尽管周五反弹，但仍处低位震荡。 高盛强调新技术周期的开启、2020-2021年融资潮培育的大量竞争者，以及系统架构需要重新设计等因素，正推高应用软件层的竞争烈度。 Borges为投资者勾勒出一份观察清单，列出七项可能预示AI-SaaS行业走向稳定的关键指标。该框架旨在帮助市场判断，应用软件公司能否抵御新竞争 者冲击，以及基础设施提供商的巨额资本支出何时能转化为可观回报。 AI-SaaS领域的两大核心争议 高盛技术研究团队指出AI-SaaS领域存在两大主要争议。 第一个争议点在于软件企业会被替代吗。 高盛认为，新的技术周期总是带来混乱。眼下，传统的SaaS巨头、像Palantir（PLTR.US）这样的高端定制软件商，以及那 ...