Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have recently declined from a near four-week high due to a modest rise in the dollar, but uncertainty regarding the U.S.-China trade agreement has limited the decline. Central banks are increasingly sourcing gold from domestic mines to bolster their reserves [1][8]. Central Bank Strategies - Central banks are turning to local gold mines to secure gold, which supports local industries and avoids impacting foreign exchange reserves. Countries like the Philippines and Ecuador have been doing this for years, and more central banks are considering direct local purchases [2][4]. - According to a World Gold Council survey, 19 out of 36 central banks are currently buying gold directly from domestic artisanal and small-scale miners, with four more considering it. This marks an increase from the previous year [3]. Economic Benefits - Purchasing gold directly from local mines is often cheaper than buying on the international market, as central banks can acquire gold at a slight discount. For instance, Ghana's Gold Board has agreements to buy 20% of gold output from local mining companies [5][8]. - Buying domestic gold allows central banks to grow their reserves using local currency, thus not sacrificing other reserve assets like the U.S. dollar [12]. Geopolitical Context - The rising global debt levels and geopolitical risks are prompting central banks to strengthen their reserve buffers. Approximately 95% of central banks surveyed expect their peers to increase gold reserves in the coming year [13]. Support for Local Industry - Central banks are incentivized to support local mining operations, which generate jobs and bolster local economies. However, purchasing gold from local mines can come with risks related to labor practices and environmental concerns [15][16]. - Central banks have the potential to improve the supply chain for artisanal and small-scale miners, providing a legal and fair outlet for their gold, which can enhance traceability and accountability [17][18].

Core Insights - Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) reported a significant year-over-year increase in client Daily Average Revenue Trades (DARTs) for June 2025, leading to a 3.4% rise in its share price [1][10] - Total client DARTs reached 3,448,000 in June 2025, marking a 39.7% increase from June 2024, driven by higher net new accounts and options trading, despite a decline in futures trading [1][10] Group 1: Market Conditions and Client Activity - The company has benefited from increased market volatility and client activity due to tariff concerns and geopolitical risks, which are expected to continue driving new account openings and trading volume [2] - The momentum in client activity is anticipated to persist as investors assess the impact of tariffs on various sectors, suggesting a continued rise in total client DARTs for IBKR [2] Group 2: Global Expansion and Product Diversification - IBKR has enhanced its global presence through product diversification, including extending trading hours for Forecast Contracts and launching these contracts in Canada [3] - The company expanded its offering of Stocks and Shares Investment Savings Accounts in the U.K. by adding mutual funds, providing investors with a broader range of tax-efficient investment products [4] - Recent launches, such as Plan d'Epargne en Actions accounts for French clients and the IBKR GlobalTrader mobile application, have further diversified its offerings [5] Group 3: Technological Advancements - IBKR's technological superiority allows it to process trades across more than 150 exchanges globally, enhancing its operational efficiency [7] - The company has introduced several innovations, including Overnight Trading for U.S. stocks and ETFs, commission-free trading through IBKR Lite, and cryptocurrency trading with lower commissions [6] - The development of proprietary software to automate broker-dealer functions has contributed to a steady rise in revenues, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% over the past five years [8] Group 4: Financial Performance and Valuation - Net revenues are projected to improve further, supported by strong DART numbers and increased market participation [9] - IBKR shares are currently trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.46X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.87X, indicating a potential buying opportunity [13][14] - Year-to-date, IBKR shares have risen 31.8%, outperforming peers such as Schwab and Tradeweb [15] Group 5: Earnings Estimates and Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 and 2026 earnings remains stable at $1.76 and $1.89, respectively, indicating expected growth [19] - The company is well-positioned for growth in a volatile operating environment, with strong technological capabilities and diversified product offerings supporting long-term growth [21]

When you look at trade negotiations right now, could they actually change the outcome of the European economy. Well, I think that there's going to be a very relevant factor. And if you see, for instance, if you watch our our predictions, they are different alternatives, different different scenarios according to the different outcomes that we might have.I hope that, you know, the negotiations will be finalized. So at least this, you know, will deliver a little bit of predictability because now, you know, th ...

Oil prices are higher this morning, but not nearly as high as they had been overnight in the trading session where we saw WTI uh actually get up close to $79 and Brent even above $80 a barrel. Joining us right now is Josh Young. He's chief investment officer of Bison Interest which focuses on oil and gas investments.And Josh, let's just talk about where we stand. If you look back at a WTI chart over the last month, we're up 20%. So we have seen pretty massive premium that's been built in from where we were ...

“Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Yvonne Man and David Ingles give global investors unique insight, delivering in-depth discussions with the newsmakers who matter. Chapters: 00:00:00 - Bloomberg: The China Show opens 00:04:33 - World awaits Iran response to US strikes 00:09:11 - BCA Research's Matt Gertken on Middle East tensions 00:17:11 - China condemns Trump's attack on Iran nucle ...

Key Takeaways CVX has shut down the Leviathan gas field due to Israeli security directives tied to regional tensions. The halt ends exports to Egypt, intensifying energy strain and disrupting Mediterranean-Europe gas flows. Plans to expand Leviathan's output to 21 bcm annually are now suspended amid escalating geopolitical risks.Chevron Corporation (CVX) , a Houston, TX-based integrated oil and gas company, has confirmed the complete shutdown of its massive Leviathan gas field, situated in the Levant Basi ...

I just laid out a laundry list of potential catalysts and factors at play. Can you tell us why the markets are not reacting more forcefully to everything going on domestically and abroad. I it's really quite a moment when you look at the constellation of of geopolitical risks.But one thing that I can say with the perspective of covering geopolitics and markets for 25 years is that the perceived importance of Middle East conflict and its relationship to the oil price has um declined over time. But I think in ...

Core Viewpoint - Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) shares declined 3.4% following its exclusion from the S&P 500 index during the quarterly rebalance, leading to bearish sentiment among investors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Online brokers, including IBKR, Robinhood, and Charles Schwab, have benefited from increased market volatility and client activity due to tariff concerns and geopolitical risks [2] - Over the past three months, shares of IBKR, Robinhood, and Schwab have rallied and outperformed the industry [3] Group 2: Company Developments - IBKR is enhancing its global presence through product diversification, including extending trading hours for Forecast Contracts and launching new investment products in various markets [7][8] - The company has introduced innovative trading options, such as Overnight Trading for U.S. stocks and ETFs, and commission-free trading through IBKR Lite [9][10] Group 3: Financial Performance - IBKR's net revenues have shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% over the last five years, with expectations for further improvement due to strong trading activity [11][12] - The company’s shares are currently trading at a price-to-tangible book (P/TB) ratio of 1.29X, significantly lower than the industry average of 2.88X, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [15][16] Group 4: Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have revised earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 downward by 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment [19] - Despite the growth potential, rising non-interest expenses and geopolitical risks are concerns for analysts, leading to a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for IBKR [23][24]

Industry Overview - Gold has gained approximately 26% year to date, currently trading near $3,030 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and a weaker U.S. dollar [1] - The Zacks Mining - Gold industry has increased by 39.1% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Basic Materials sector's 6.4% and the S&P 500's 0.7% [2] - Robust gold demand is anticipated to continue, with central banks expected to maintain a buying streak of over 1,000 tons [8] Demand and Supply Dynamics - Gold demand reached 1,206 tons in Q1 2025, the highest quarterly total since 2016, with central banks acquiring around 244 tons [4] - Investment demand surged 170% year over year to 552 tons, marking the strongest quarter since Q1 2022, driven largely by China [5] - Global gold ETFs saw inflows of 226.5 tons, with April marking the fifth consecutive monthly increase [6] Company Highlights Newmont - Newmont solidified its position as the world's largest gold producer after integrating Newcrest assets and is focusing on Tier 1 assets [10] - The company has a strong liquidity position and is pursuing several growth projects, including Tanami Expansion 2 and Ahafo North [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Newmont's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 12.6% [12] Agnico Eagle Mines - Agnico Eagle maintains a strong liquidity position and is advancing several projects expected to enhance production and cash flows [13] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Agnico Eagle's 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year growth of 42.2% [14] Barrick Mining - Barrick Mining is well-positioned to benefit from key growth projects, including Goldrush and Pueblo Viejo plant expansion [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Barrick Mining's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 34.7% [17] Kinross Gold - Kinross Gold has a strong production profile and is advancing key development projects, including Great Bear and Round Mountain Phase X [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Kinross Gold's 2025 earnings suggests a year-over-year growth of 52.2% [21] New Gold - New Gold consolidated its interest in the New Afton mine to 100%, projecting a 37% increase in gold production between 2024 and 2027 [22] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for New Gold's 2025 earnings indicates a year-over-year growth of 91.25% [24]

Market Overview - In the first 100 days of 2025, the stock market faced one of its worst starts in decades, resulting in significant losses for investors, including large pension funds like CalSTRS [1] - CalSTRS Chief Investment Officer Scott Chan highlighted "unprecedented and world-changing" risks primarily related to policy changes under the Trump administration, including tariffs that have created market uncertainty [2] Investment Strategy - CalSTRS is concerned about tariffs, potential recession, and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S. involvement in conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and NATO's future [3] - The pension fund increased its stake in Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) by 21,004 shares, or 28%, bringing its total to 95,463 shares valued at $1.87 million as of the end of March [4] Portfolio Adjustments - Despite increasing its position in DJT, CalSTRS reduced its stakes in several top holdings, indicating a defensive strategy focused on fixed income and cash due to economic concerns under Trump [4] - The fund aims for a 30-year target of 7% annual returns to meet retirement obligations, but the stock market drop and underperformance of investments like Trump Media could jeopardize these returns [5] Controversial Holdings - CalSTRS holds significant positions in major companies, including Tesla (1.5% of assets), Apple (6.5%), Microsoft (5.2%), NVIDIA (5.2%), Amazon (3.5%), and Meta (2.5%) [7][9] - The pension fund received numerous requests to divest from Tesla, particularly due to controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk's actions, reflecting growing pressure from stakeholders [8][9]