Core Viewpoint - Oil prices increased during the early Asian trading session due to anticipated near-term geopolitical risks [1] Group 1 - The rise in oil prices is linked to concerns over geopolitical tensions that may impact supply [1]

Key TakeawaysNew Zealand's five largest banks have demonstrated robust resilience against severe geopolitical risks, with their capital levels remaining above regulatory minimums even under extreme stress scenarios, according to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) 2025 Bank Industry Stress Test results.The stress test included a scenario where the New Zealand economy contracted by 6.5% over three years, unemployment surged to 10.5%, and house prices plummeted by 35%.A new feature of this year's test co ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.2% to 26,282.69, reversing earlier gains that had reached 0.9% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also dropped by 0.7% [1] - On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.7% [2] Company Performance - Sunny Optical Technology Group's stock fell by 4.8% to HK$76.95, while Budweiser Brewing also saw a decline of 4.8% to HK$8 [3] - Biotech firm Wuxi AppTec retreated by 3.7% to HK$108.50 following a major shareholder's announcement to sell a stake on the Shanghai exchange [3] - In contrast, Meituan's stock advanced by 2.4% to HK$102.40 due to a plan to sell US$3 billion of dual-currency notes [3] Geopolitical Impact - The meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump resulted in a tariff truce that was largely anticipated by the market [4] - Key outcomes included China delaying a curb on rare earth exports and resuming purchases of American soybeans, while the US would extend a pause on reciprocal tariffs for an additional year [5] - Analysts noted that the results of the meeting were in line with a preliminary agreement previously reached, which had already been factored into market expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have decreased slightly in the early Asian session as traders evaluate various geopolitical risks [1] Group 1 - Oil prices are experiencing a downward trend in the early Asian trading session [1] - Traders are currently assessing multiple geopolitical risks that may impact oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rally in gold prices has been significant, with gold experiencing a pullback but still showing strong year-to-date performance, indicating a favorable environment for gold investment [6][11]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have increased by 56% year-to-date, with a recent pullback of 3.5% for the week, which is considered minor in the context of the overall rise [6][7]. - Central banks globally are increasingly purchasing gold, viewing it as a key reserve asset, which has contributed to its rising status compared to the US dollar and euro [8][9][15]. - The US dollar has weakened, losing about 10% against other currencies this year, which has positively impacted gold prices [5][10]. Investment Strategies - Gold ETFs, such as the one managed by Granite Shares (ticker: BAR), are recommended as a straightforward way for investors to gain exposure to gold prices [12][14]. - While gold mining stocks can be an investment option, they do not provide a direct correlation to gold prices and carry additional risks [13]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The current environment includes persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, prompting investors to seek diversification, which benefits gold [11][17]. - Predictions for gold prices suggest potential increases to $5,000 or even $6,000 in the coming years, driven by ongoing demand from central banks and investors [7][8]. - The recent decline in US gold reserves to the lowest levels in 90 years contrasts with the increasing gold purchases by central banks worldwide, indicating a shift in reserve asset strategies [14][16].

Ah, the financial markets. A bastion of predictability, where logic reigns supreme and policy announcements are met with measured, rational responses. Or, at least, that’s what the textbooks tell us. In the era of Donald J. Trump, however, the markets have transformed into a thrilling, often baffling, spectacle, reacting to presidential pronouncements with all the nuanced grace of a bull in a china shop. The past few weeks alone have offered a dizzying array of policy pivots, tariff threats, and geopolitica ...

By Gregor Stuart Hunter SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian stocks fell for a second day on Thursday as lacklustre earnings from tech megacaps deepened a selloff on Wall Street, while U.S. sanctions against Russia and possible new export controls on China revived geopolitical worries. Oil prices surged 3% after the U.S. imposed sanctions on major Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil over the Ukraine war. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was last off 0.4%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 sank 1 ...

Core Insights - Gold is experiencing its largest weekly gain in five years, with prices reaching an all-time high near $4,380 an ounce, marking an increase of approximately 8% this week, the highest since March 2020 [1] - Silver has also reached new highs, with prices hitting nearly $54.50 an ounce, reflecting an increase of over 85% this year [3] Group 1: Market Drivers - Concerns over credit quality in the US and renewed trade tensions with China are driving investors towards precious metals as safe-haven assets [2] - Geopolitical risks, rising public debt, and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence are contributing to the increased demand for gold and silver [2] Group 2: Price Movements and Trends - Gold has surged more than 60% this year, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds, with traders anticipating at least one significant US rate cut by year-end [3] - The London silver market has tightened significantly, leading to a price increase above New York silver futures, with borrowing costs for silver sitting around 20% [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Over the past week, over 15 million ounces of silver have been withdrawn from Comex warehouses in New York, with much of it likely heading to London to alleviate tightness in the market [5] - A notable outflow of 10 million ounces from silver-backed exchange-traded funds occurred on Thursday, contributing to the ongoing supply dynamics [5]

Core Insights - Commodity traders are facing renewed geopolitical risks due to military conflicts, increasing tariffs, and pressure on global supply chains, which may lead to volatility-driven profits for some players [1][2] Risk Analysis - The report identifies tariffs as the biggest economic threat to commodity traders, reshaping trade flows and injecting unprecedented policy uncertainty [7] - China remains the largest buyer in most commodity sectors, with slowing growth and deflation risks potentially affecting balance sheets, necessitating close monitoring of the economy [7] - Climate change is reshaping commodity markets, altering seasonal fuel demand and straining logistics [7] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly around Ukraine, continue to impact commodity markets, raising fears of supply shocks due to potential Black Sea trade disruptions [7] - Maritime trade faces rising disruptions from drone-enabled attacks and weakening global security guarantees, increasing costs and threatening the flow of global commodities [7] Emerging Risks - The evolution of European sustainability regulations could become a significant concern, impacting the global market's operation and balancing the need for reliable imports with data privacy and climate impact [3] - Potential turmoil in the global bond market may arise from the end of extraordinary stimulus measures aimed at combating post-pandemic inflation, with isolated examples raising concerns for larger problems [3] Industry Perspective - The current protectionist era is prompting governments and businesses to move towards onshore production, yet trade remains crucial for commodities that are difficult to produce in many regions [4]

Is this a bubble. Well, thanks for having me on your program. And of course, that is the question that people are asking when things like this just go parabolic, to use a word that captures the imagination.People wonder, you know, how long can this go on. And they start comparing it to the past. We don't believe that it's a bubble.The underlying factor and force is the the usefulness that can be gotten from these A. I. models.And we're only at the very, very beginning of that. You know, companies are having ...