🚨BREAKING: IRAN FIRES MISSILES INTO STRAIT OF HORMUZ, 20% OF GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY UNDER THREATIran's Revolutionary Guard has reportedly launched live-fire military exercises directly into the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil chokepoint, in a dramatic show of force timed just hours before a new round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial international trade route through which 20% of the world's oil passes. ...

Sanctions are meant to choke off oil supply, but a hidden fleet is covertly keeping prices lower than they should be. The shadow fleet is a concealed network of tankers that moves sanctioned oil. The vessels operate by obscuring locations, routes, and even ownership.This keeps elicit crude flowing despite enforcement pressure. The shadow fleet can also be referred to as the dark fleet because the vessels turn off their locations to hide their illegal activity. That could be going to a port to either fill th ...

Sanctions are meant to choke off oil supply, but a hidden fleet is covertly keeping prices lower than they should be. The shadow fleet is a concealed network of tankers that move sanctioned oil. The vessels operate by obscuring locations, routes and even ownership.This keeps illicit crude flowing despite enforcement pressure. The shadow fleet can also be referred to as the dark fleet, because the vessels turn off their locations to hide their illegal activity. That could be going to a port to either fill th ...

Cuba is running out of oil. According to energy consultancy Kepler, it hasn't had a shipment since January the 9th, and now it only has enough to last for 15 to 20 days. Mexico was Cuba's biggest supplier last year, overtaking Venezuela, whose exports to the communist island dried up after the US captured Nicolas Maduro on January the 3rd.The shipment that arrived in Cuba on January the 9th, came from Mexico. But another shipment that had been planned has been shelved, at least for now, amid pressure from D ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese oil industry**, specifically discussing oil demand, imports, refinery operations, and inventory levels for December 2025 and the outlook for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Apparent Oil Demand Growth**: China's apparent oil demand grew by **4% YoY** in December, marking the **eighth consecutive month** of growth, driven by strong demand for naphtha and gasoline [3][7][22]. 2. **Record Crude Imports**: Crude imports reached a record high of **13.2 mb/d** in December, with significant contributions from the Arab Gulf, Brazil, and Russia. This increase was attributed to state-owned refiners boosting Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) injections [4][58][59]. 3. **Refinery Operations**: Refinery runs were flat month-over-month (MoM) in December due to a shortage of refined product export quotas and soft seasonal demand. State-owned refiners prioritized maximizing petrochemical feedstock yields over travel fuels [5][66]. 4. **Crude Inventory Build**: China's crude inventories built by **31.3 million barrels** in December, marking the first significant build since July. Total observable inventories increased by approximately **70 million barrels** in 2025 [6][169]. 5. **Diesel Demand Trends**: Diesel demand was broadly flat MoM, with a slight decline of **20 kb/d**. The manufacturing sector showed improvement, but cold weather impacted construction and logistics activities [13][15]. 6. **Gasoline Demand Dynamics**: Gasoline demand remained flat MoM but increased by **5% YoY** in December. The demand was supported by a low comparison base from the previous year [18][20]. 7. **Jet Fuel Demand**: Jet fuel demand was down **1% YoY** in 2025, but adjusted estimates suggest modest growth. Seasonal trends typically lead to a decline in demand towards year-end [33][31]. 8. **Naphtha Demand**: Naphtha demand fell by **40 kb/d MoM** but was up **13% YoY**. The increase was driven by new cracker capacity coming online [46][48]. 9. **Refinery Output Changes**: Overall refinery output of jet fuel rose **15% YoY** in December, while gasoline and diesel outputs fell by **2% and 1%** respectively [153][165]. 10. **Future Outlook for Diesel**: Diesel demand is expected to continue declining in 2026 due to fuel-switching trends in the trucking sector, although government policy may provide some support [16][19]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Impact of Tariffs and Subsidies**: The improved manufacturing PMI in December was attributed to lower tariffs and fiscal easing, which may support diesel demand [14]. 2. **Government Policies**: The Chinese government plans to introduce a consumption tax on naphtha, which could shift refiners' strategies towards importing naphtha rather than producing it domestically [49][85]. 3. **Independent Refiners' Performance**: Independent refiners increased their utilization rates to **56.2%** in December, benefiting from lower run rates at state-owned refineries and access to discounted crude [143][146]. 4. **Export Quotas**: China released its first batch of clean product export quotas for 2026, totaling **19 million tons**, which may influence future export strategies [104][106]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese oil industry.

Supply and Demand - Oil supply is growing rapidly [1] Geopolitical Risks - Market's geopolitical risks are increasing [1]

EQUITY FUTURES HIGHER ON THE S&P FUTURES, YIELDS MARGINALLY HIGHER ON THE 10 YEAR AND CRUDE CONTINUING TO FALL. THE REAL QUESTION HERE WITH THE OVERSUPPLY, EARNINGS FROM OIL GIANTS ARE CROSSING AT THIS HOUR AND EXXON SHARES LOWER. CHEVRON RISING AFTER POSTING STRONG RESULTS, JOINING US NOW IS THE HEAD OF RESEARCH.DAN, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE. I'M WONDERING WITH OIL GIANTS WHAT IT TELLS YOU ABOUT THE PATH OF PRODUCTION IN THE MONTHS AND YEARS TO COME. DAN: THE EARNINGS HELP US TO CHECK IN ON THE KEY ASSUMPT ...

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a slight increase due to geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, despite concerns regarding potential increases in oil supply and the impact of trade tariffs on global fuel demand [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East are contributing to the upward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Concerns - There are concerns about the prospect of increased oil supply which may counterbalance the price increase [1] - Trade tariffs are raising concerns about their potential impact on global fuel demand [1]

Oil Market Dynamics - Chinese traders are considered the most influential oil traders, primarily due to their significant purchases of Iranian crude oil [1] - Approximately 80% of Iranian oil is re-flagged through Malaysia before being exported, mainly to China [1] - The White House has seemingly turned a blind eye to sanctions, allowing Iranian oil to continue flowing at high levels [2] - There are concerted efforts to avoid interrupting the oil supply, with no party, including Iran, wanting to halt the flow [2] - Concerns about Iran closing the Straits of Hormuz are less about physical barriers and more about the potential for missile attacks on tankers [3] Supply and Demand - Current oil demand is extraordinarily high at 103 million barrels per day, equivalent to approximately 1300 barrels per second [5] - Global oil production capacity stands at 108 million barrels per day, indicating a spare capacity of 5 million barrels per day [5] - Spare capacity is primarily located in the Gulf region [6] - Strong demand, particularly due to Middle Eastern heat, has supported oil prices, with an extra 400,000 barrels per day of demand [9] - A cold winter in key markets (Northeast Asia, Europe, and the US) added over 1 million barrels per day of extra demand in Q1 [9] Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment - The market perceives a low risk of interruption in the Straits of Hormuz, as major players like China, the US, Europe, and Saudi Arabia want the oil to keep flowing [6] - The likelihood of the Straits of Hormuz being shut by the end of June is considered extremely low [7] - The market is in a plentiful supply situation, potentially pushing commodity prices lower even after accounting for risk premiums [8] - Incremental geopolitical disasters are needed to significantly increase oil prices [10]