What Warsh Means for Markets, Rates, Housecleaning at the Fed - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# What Warsh Means for Markets, Rates, and Housecleaning at the FedShareResize---ReprintsIn this article[SLV]Kevin Warsh in 2013 (Pa ...

Quantitative Easing (QE) Analysis - Full QE involved hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars in buying [1] - Interest rates during these QE periods were 0-025% [1] Market Timing - Waiting for QE confirmation may cause investors to miss the most profitable part of the market move [1]

Economic Outlook - The economy has been resilient, with growth around 18% annually, despite uncertainty [2] - The labor market has been near full employment but is cooling, with both demand and supply decreasing [2] - Inflation is closer to 3% than the 2% target [2] - Companies report resilient consumption, with growth being fine, and the labor market softening slightly [5] Consumer Finance - Higher-income households are consuming due to wealth effects from the stock market and home prices [7] - Lower-income households are taking on more credit card debt to maintain consumption [7] - Consumer balance sheets are generally okay, but there was an increase in subprime loan and credit card defaults over the past year, which have since stabilized [8][9] Business Concerns - Companies indicate uncertainty has plateaued, allowing them to operate with a higher level of uncertainty [11] - Some companies are passing on higher costs related to terrorism, insurance, and upstream production [11][12] - Companies closer to the consumer are facing difficulty passing on costs due to pushback from final buyers [12][13] Labor Market - The labor market is cooling in an orderly way, with both supply and demand decreasing [13] - Layoff announcements have been noted, but weekly claims remain stable [13][14] Monetary Policy - Monetary policy should consider both cyclical/demand-side factors and structural transitions in the economy [15][16] - The real federal funds rate has declined by 250 basis points in the past year, with 150 basis points from nominal interest rate reductions and 100 basis points from rising expected inflation due to tariffs [18][19] - Companies are more concerned about non-interest costs, such as raw material and insurance costs, than interest costs [20][21] - There is limited room to ease policy further without it becoming overly accommodative, with the real federal funds rate around 1%, which is the long-run neutral rate [25] Inflation and Household Impact - It's important to bring inflation back towards 2% to allow households to catch up with their real incomes [21][26][27] - People are increasingly experiencing "more month than money," going to food pantries, and requesting utility assistance [26][27] Asset Prices - Financial conditions are very accommodative, and asset valuations are notable, with house and stock prices appearing elevated [28][29]

Economy & Rates - Fed Chair Powell delivered remarks on the economy and interest rates at NABE (National Association for Business Economics) [1]

Monetary Policy - Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann believes holding rates is appropriate for the current period [1] - The statement addresses the risk inflation poses to the UK economy and potential future actions by the central bank [1]

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - The report focuses on Powell's speech and its implications for the Fed's economic outlook and interest rates [1] Financial Markets - The report is relevant to financial markets, as it discusses potential impacts on rates [1]

Market Trend - BTC 图表显示，利率下调 25 个基点后，市场表现值得关注 [1]

Monetary Policy - Powell indicates no immediate urgency to adjust interest rates [1]

Upcoming Event - The FED officials' dot plot, projecting rates for the coming years, is dropping tomorrow [1] Market Outlook - The dot plot is extremely important and will be analyzed [1]

Market Trends - Gold is expected to consolidate [1] - Interest rates are anticipated to decrease [1] - Altcoins are projected to increase in value, with significant potential for further growth [1]