Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - The COMEX silver price reached a historical high, increasing by 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce during the Christmas market rally [2][30][80] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Australian stock index rose by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively [2][3] - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of US debt fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion [48][80] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3% (annualized), surpassing market expectations of 3.3%. This growth was primarily driven by strong consumer spending, which was influenced by a decline in the savings rate [61][80] - The unemployment claims for the week ending December 20 were 214,000, lower than expected, while the continuing claims were 1.923 million, exceeding market forecasts [64] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds mostly declined, with the yield falling to 4.14% [15][19] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.03, while other currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound, which rose by 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively [22][28] - Most commodity prices declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 4.4% to $56.7 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 4.1% to $60.6 per barrel [30][31]

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Impact - The market hasn't fully digested the dovish stance of the last Federal Reserve open market meeting, which included a rate cut and a $40 billion QE (Quantitative Easing) [1] - The Federal Reserve is becoming more concerned about labor market issues and less concerned about inflation [1] - The biggest risk is labor market weakness coupled with a slow response from the Federal Reserve [6] Investment Strategy & Market Outlook - The speaker recommends a risk parity strategy, which involves being fully long equities with a levered long hedge in fixed income [1] - The risk parity portfolio has been up approximately 25% to 26% this year, and similar returns are expected next year [1] - The speaker believes that both lower rates and higher equities are possible and will perform well [1] Geopolitical & Economic Factors - If the situation in Venezuela leads to a new regime, oil prices could fall to the mid-40s to high 40s, which would have disinflationary consequences [2] - The speaker suggests the Trump administration aims for lower rates, particularly lower mortgage rates, and is focused on the housing emergency [1] - Central banks may be reconsidering the safety of their reserve asset holdings in the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, potentially leading to a return to gold [3] AI & Labor Market - The impact of AI adoption on productivity, margins, and the labor market is uncertain [5] - Rapid AI adoption could lead to creative destruction in the labor market, necessitating easier monetary policy [6]

Market Prediction - Arthur Hayes 预计比特币短期内将交易在 8 万美元至 10 万美元之间，然后重新达到 12.4 万美元，并可能以 3 月份左右的情绪高峰为目标达到 20 万美元 [1] - BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，美联储的 RMP 实际上是“变相的量化宽松”，预测流动性恢复和加密货币上涨 [1] Investment Strategy - Hayes 表示他正在从 ETH 轮换到高质量的 DeFi 资产 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's introduction of the RMP (Reserve Management Purchase), equating it to a new form of quantitative easing (QE), which is expected to release liquidity and increase the long-term devaluation risk of fiat currencies, benefiting the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin [1] Group 1 - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 in the short term [1] - He anticipates that once the market recognizes "RMP = QE," Bitcoin could return to $124,000 and potentially surge towards $200,000 [1] - A peak in market sentiment is expected around March next year, followed by a correction, but the overall bottom is likely to remain above $124,000 [1] Group 2 - Hayes is shifting his positions from Ethereum (ETH) to high-quality DeFi projects, believing that improved fiat liquidity will allow related DeFi assets to outperform the market [1]

I wrote an Op-Ed in the @washingtonpost calling attention to the negative impact of QE on the average American family.Read it here: https://t.co/CwWYC8luZJ https://t.co/A8XCc6E36J ...

Monetary Policy & Market Intervention - The market anticipates continued monetary easing, but under a different label than "QE" [1] - Policy adjustments are expected to protect the stock market, given its perceived importance to the US economy [2] Market Outlook - The stock market is closely tied to the US economy [2]

Fed Policy & Market Liquidity - The market should take the Fed's storyline with a grain of salt, as they tend to downplay the impact of their balance sheet on risk assets [7] - The Fed's QE, even when disguised as reserve management purchases (RMPs), adds liquidity to the system and monetizes debt, which is a positive signal for risk assets [5][6] - The market reacted positively to the FOMC meeting due to the Fed's balance sheet actions [7] - The industry anticipates a more dovish Fed in the future, which is generally bullish for risk assets [14] Economic Data & Growth - Economic data is noisy and subject to revisions, with 15 million job revisions in 2023 and 2024 [2] - Despite the noise, the trend shows good growth data, high productivity, and rising real wages, though not fast enough to concern the Fed [3] - The economy may be in a Goldilocks scenario, similar to the 1990s, which is positive for equity markets [12] - The US had two consecutive quarters of 4% growth without significant job creation, indicating a productivity story [11] Market Outlook & Risks - The market expects a test for the new Fed chair, similar to what happened with previous chairs [8][9] - Lower oil prices and potentially lower mortgage rates support a bullish outlook [13] - The credibility of the new Fed makeup and potential machinations within the committee could create bumps in the market [12][14]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 亚太股市惨烈杀跌！ 12月16日早盘，权益类资产集体杀跌。日经指数跌超1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数大跌超1.7%。A股和港股也 受到了冲击，A股三大指数均跌超1%，军工、商业航天、光伏风电、影视等板块跌幅居前，沪深北三 市下跌个股超4500只。 那么，究竟有何不利消息？分析人士认为，从全球的角度来看，最大的变数可能来自日本央行加息。据 日经中文网消息，日本央行12月18日—19日将召开金融政策决定会议，上调目前为0.5%的政策利率。 最可能的方案是加息0.25%至0.75%。另外，日本央行最早将于1月开始出售ETF持仓。虽然外界认为， 套息交易规模已经小于去年，但若加上最近AI交易的退潮，冲击可能也不容小视。 惨烈杀跌 12月16日早盘，MSCI亚太指数下跌1%。日经指数跌超1.3%，韩国KOSPI指数大跌超1.7%。港股三大指 数亦是全线杀跌，恒生科技指数再度大跌近1.7%。富时中国A50指数期货跌幅也扩大至1%。 A股市场，几乎是全线下跌。平均股价跌超1%，并再度破位。A股三大指数早盘低开后持续调整，跌幅 皆超1%，板块方面，影视院 ...

Market Trends & Outlook - Bitcoin is moving sideways as markets head into holiday mode [1] - Major macro shifts could be brewing [1] - Discussion of the latest Fed rate cut and 2026 outlook [1] - Liquidity debates are ongoing in the crypto market [1] - Key "white swan" catalysts could wake crypto up [1] Promotional Offers & Community Engagement - Coin Bureau offers crypto deals and a club membership [1] - Opportunities to join the Coin Bureau Discord server [1] - Brand partners include Bitget (up to 50K USDT Deposit Bonus) and Toobit (100K USDT Bonus and 50% Lifetime Fee Discount) [1] - Tangem Wallet offers a 10% discount [1] Disclaimer - The information provided is for informational purposes only and not financial, legal, or tax advice [1] - Trading cryptocurrencies poses considerable risk of loss [1]

Market Trends - Gold and silver are surging due to renewed quantitative easing (QE) [1] - Bitcoin is underperforming and should be discontinued [1]