【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16585 | 0.45% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1965.5 | 0.59% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 49645 | -775 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5987 | -1177 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 50305 | -1722 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 176330 | -578 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -43.55 | 6.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -40 | -20 | 进口升贴水（美 | 87.5 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -97.18 | -44.26 | 沪铅连三进口盈亏 ...

人民财讯2月6日电，中金认为美联储短期或难"缩表"，但持续"扩表"与QE的门槛也明显上升。如果美 联储不愿通过"扩表"支持财政宽松，一个新的临时性货币-财政协同方式可能是美联储增加降息幅度， 财政部增加短债发行，首先推动金融去监管，然后再开启"缩表"进程。美联储最终降息幅度或超出市场 预期，美元宽松交易可能在短期回归。美债收益率曲线陡峭化叠加金融去监管，利好美国银行股票。美 联储或将决定黄金牛市的终点，但这一拐点尚未到来。中国股票与全球商品只是暂时承压，静待宽松预 期回归。 ...

【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 在前期市场最亢奋时，我们提示本轮春季行情会走成两波，目前市场走势验证中。 需要看到，本次A股跨年行情第一波的隐线其实还是跟着海外：去年底低点是担心联储不降息 /AI泡沫论（当时我 也指出市场过于悲观，是布局机会），这波是担心新联储主席缩表 。 年初市场的宽 【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 至于市场担心沃什缩表，我认为：1. 相信常识，既然特朗普要换鲍威尔不是要换上一个鹰派。 2.沃什上任后的联储决策和多年前沃什的观点不宜画等号。 3.市场对沃什的鹰派已做出反应，后续可以看下他的最新言论，例如后续国会听证会他的表态可能会给市场一颗 定心丸。 总体来说，我认为后续预期会收敛，不至于鸽到QE预期，也不至于太鹰。 市场稳住阵脚后，发现国内微观流动性基础仍在。 经历了第一波的回荡之后，春季行情第二波的躁动程度预计会降低，海外因素预计会降低，结构会比第一波更平 衡，也会有一些资金着眼三四月之后，开始布局内需，等待相关政策。 看得更长 ...

市场对沃什的政策主张短期落地并不抱太高期待。 沃什反对 QE ，认为其让美联储充当了财政角色，造成了大量的资源浪费和价格扭曲，通过缩减资产负债 表来控制通胀，从而为降息铺路。但是市场认为短期其政策难以落地， 2025 年 12 月开始，美联储开启技术性扩表，后续迅速转为缩表的可能性不大，主要 受制于美元流动性和就业压力。同时在沃什当选之后，美国联邦基金利率期货市场对全年降息的次数预期仍为 2 次，并未出现大幅上升。说明市场认为沃什 的独立性会相对占优，短期大幅降息的可能性不大。 美联储新主席人事任命公布后，引发商品市场大幅调整，但我们认为其只是贵金属市场短期过快上行后调整的触发剂，而不是本质原因。 凯文 · 沃什当选美 联储新主席的超预期和政策主张，使得美元指数上行，美债利率上行，美股受冲击下跌，与此同时，金银等贵金属出现大幅调整，但我们认为沃什当选只是贵 金属价格短期快速上行后调整的触发剂，而并非本质原因。其有一定的催化作用，一方面美联储维持了其相对独立性，另一方面，短期降息难落地，对贵金属 价格也有冲击。但是沃什当选本身，对美联储政策方向的改变并非本质性的，黄金等价格短期技术性调整为主，后续或仍有支撑。 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 耿佩璇 ☎欢迎交流：申万宏观 赵宇、陈达飞、赵伟 周度研究成果汇总 （1.24-1.30） 重点推介 热点思考：美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？ 1.全球债市恐慌再现，美国上演"股债汇三杀" 近期海外市场再度上演"股债汇三杀"，触发因素是美欧格陵兰争端、丹麦养老基金宣布将退出美债投 资、高市早苗提前选举。流动性冲击下，特朗普达沃斯论坛再度TACO，市场阶段性缓和。 2.美债短期风险可控，长期根本矛盾未解决 2026年美国紧财政政治动力已减弱下，减税、增加供给侧投资，令赤字率或上升至6.8%。关税风险、美 国引发的地缘风险或长期存在，美债或不再安全。 3.常规政策区间，不宜期待联储QE或YCC 为缓和债务风险，特朗普或采取"结构性"金融抑制措施，压低实际利率。在非战争或非零利率状态下， 美联储极不可能通过QE或YCC压降美债利率。 热点思考 1、热点思考 | 美债恐慌重演，市场误读了什么？——"大财政"系列之二 高频跟踪 电话会议 1、"速见系列" 第21期: 《1月FOMC例会解读与展望》 2 、"洞见系列" 第112期: 《美国通胀风险有多大 ...

Group 1: Major Asset Classes & Overseas Events & Data - The COMEX silver price reached a historical high, increasing by 4.7% to $78.8 per ounce, while COMEX gold rose by 2.5% to $4546.2 per ounce during the Christmas market rally [2][30][80] - The S&P 500 index increased by 1.4%, with most developed and emerging market indices also showing gains. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Australian stock index rose by 2.5% and 1.7%, respectively [2][3] - The US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased to $801.5 billion, and the net issuance of US debt fell, with a rolling net issuance of -$55.26 billion [2][43] - The US fiscal deficit for the calendar year 2025 reached $1.77 trillion, down from $1.95 trillion in the same period last year, with total expenditures at $7.79 trillion [48][80] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US GDP growth rate for Q3 was 4.3% (annualized), surpassing market expectations of 3.3%. This growth was primarily driven by strong consumer spending, which was influenced by a decline in the savings rate [61][80] - The unemployment claims for the week ending December 20 were 214,000, lower than expected, while the continuing claims were 1.923 million, exceeding market forecasts [64] - The US Treasury yields for 10-year bonds mostly declined, with the yield falling to 4.14% [15][19] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The US dollar index fell by 0.7% to 98.03, while other currencies appreciated against the dollar, including the euro and the British pound, which rose by 0.5% and 0.9%, respectively [22][28] - Most commodity prices declined, with WTI crude oil dropping by 4.4% to $56.7 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 4.1% to $60.6 per barrel [30][31]

Federal Reserve Policy & Market Impact - The market hasn't fully digested the dovish stance of the last Federal Reserve open market meeting, which included a rate cut and a $40 billion QE (Quantitative Easing) [1] - The Federal Reserve is becoming more concerned about labor market issues and less concerned about inflation [1] - The biggest risk is labor market weakness coupled with a slow response from the Federal Reserve [6] Investment Strategy & Market Outlook - The speaker recommends a risk parity strategy, which involves being fully long equities with a levered long hedge in fixed income [1] - The risk parity portfolio has been up approximately 25% to 26% this year, and similar returns are expected next year [1] - The speaker believes that both lower rates and higher equities are possible and will perform well [1] Geopolitical & Economic Factors - If the situation in Venezuela leads to a new regime, oil prices could fall to the mid-40s to high 40s, which would have disinflationary consequences [2] - The speaker suggests the Trump administration aims for lower rates, particularly lower mortgage rates, and is focused on the housing emergency [1] - Central banks may be reconsidering the safety of their reserve asset holdings in the US Federal Reserve and the ECB, potentially leading to a return to gold [3] AI & Labor Market - The impact of AI adoption on productivity, margins, and the labor market is uncertain [5] - Rapid AI adoption could lead to creative destruction in the labor market, necessitating easier monetary policy [6]

Market Prediction - Arthur Hayes 预计比特币短期内将交易在 8 万美元至 10 万美元之间，然后重新达到 12.4 万美元，并可能以 3 月份左右的情绪高峰为目标达到 20 万美元 [1] - BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，美联储的 RMP 实际上是“变相的量化宽松”，预测流动性恢复和加密货币上涨 [1] Investment Strategy - Hayes 表示他正在从 ETH 轮换到高质量的 DeFi 资产 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's introduction of the RMP (Reserve Management Purchase), equating it to a new form of quantitative easing (QE), which is expected to release liquidity and increase the long-term devaluation risk of fiat currencies, benefiting the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin [1] Group 1 - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) may fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 in the short term [1] - He anticipates that once the market recognizes "RMP = QE," Bitcoin could return to $124,000 and potentially surge towards $200,000 [1] - A peak in market sentiment is expected around March next year, followed by a correction, but the overall bottom is likely to remain above $124,000 [1] Group 2 - Hayes is shifting his positions from Ethereum (ETH) to high-quality DeFi projects, believing that improved fiat liquidity will allow related DeFi assets to outperform the market [1]

I wrote an Op-Ed in the @washingtonpost calling attention to the negative impact of QE on the average American family.Read it here: https://t.co/CwWYC8luZJ https://t.co/A8XCc6E36J ...