Flash | 20 Aug 2025 11:47:30 ET │ 10 pages China Renewable Energy PRC Solar Module Export Value Dropped while Volume Rose in July; Inverter Export Growth from Anhui CITI'S TAKE Mild module production output decline in August – China module production volume was +1.5% yoy to 330.4GW in 7M25, according to SMM. The industry body estimates the monthly module output to decline 4.6% yoy and 0.6% mom to 46.8GW in August likely due to lower solar installation demand in China. China's solar installation was +106.5% ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For FY '25, the company achieved an EBITDAF of $786 million, down from the originally guided $820 million, reflecting a 10% reduction in hydro production [4][11][12] - The NPAT was impacted by fair value adjustments on non-hedged accounted derivatives, while dividends increased by 3%, marking the seventeenth consecutive year of dividend growth [12][13][17] - The company provided FY '26 guidance of EBITDAF at $1 billion and a dividend of 25 cents per share, indicating a positive outlook [5][39] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The trading margin decreased by 75 basis points due to reduced generation, partially offset by improved sales [11] - The telecommunications segment added over 30,000 connections, contributing positively to margin and reducing customer churn [14] - The company maintained a flat operating expenditure compared to the prior year, with a focus on reducing costs to $370 million in the future [16][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced near-record low hydrology early in FY '25, leading to high electricity spot prices, but managed to stabilize the situation with strong market responses [20][21] - The hydrology in Lake Taupo showed significant fluctuations, with the company managing to improve its net position later in the year [23][24] - Strong inflows in Q4 provided a tailwind heading into FY '26, with hydro generation reaching a record of 566 gigawatt hours in July [23][24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a refreshed strategy that emphasizes productivity and execution of its build program, targeting significant growth opportunities in wind and geothermal energy [2][3][6] - The strategy includes a commitment to invest in generation development, with plans to deliver 3.5 terawatt hours of new generation by 2030 [6][31] - The company aims to reduce operating costs per connection by 30% by FY '28, having already achieved 11% of that target [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges faced in FY '25 due to hydrology but expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage volatility and deliver strong shareholder returns [41][42] - The company is optimistic about future growth driven by electrification and demand growth, which will create a robust pipeline for generation development [42][43] - Management emphasized the importance of building a resilient energy system and supporting vulnerable customers through targeted programs [28][29] Other Important Information - The company has a disciplined approach to balance sheet management, with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.5, maintaining a strong credit rating [35][36] - The company plans to invest approximately $600 million in growth capital expenditures focused on major projects and network upgrades [39] - The company is actively engaging with government initiatives and industry collaborations to address energy challenges and enhance market mechanisms [49][50] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on geothermal opportunity of five terawatt hours - Management confirmed that updates will be provided as progress is made, emphasizing the priority of this initiative [45][46] Question: Concerns regarding government interventions - Management noted limited information from the government but expressed confidence in collaborative industry efforts to address energy challenges [48][49] Question: Details on the 50 megawatts signed with Genesis - Management clarified that the 50 megawatts is part of a strategic firming option, adding value to the portfolio [51][52] Question: Guidance on yield and portfolio impacts - Management indicated that yield impacts are being monitored, with expectations aligned with CPI [61] Question: Cost details on Taupo Gates upgrade - Management stated that the project is still in the solution phase, with specific costs not yet determined [63][64] Question: Clarification on OpEx targets - Management confirmed that the guidance includes premiums for HFOs and is reflected in the energy margin [66][67]

Financial Performance & Guidance - Second quarter 2025 CAFD reached $152 million, impacted by lower renewable resource[13] - The company is updating its 2025 CAFD guidance range to $405-440 million, raising the bottom end due to closed 3rd party M&A[13,40] - The company is targeting CAFD per share to $2.50-2.70 in 2027, increased from $2.40-2.60 previously[13] - The company expects to generate over $270 million of retained CAFD cumulatively between 2025-2027 and to have over $600 million of debt capacity to fund growth[44] Growth Initiatives - The company announced a dividend increase of 1.6% to $0.4456/share in 3Q25, or $1.7824/share annualized[13] - Mt Storm repowering is set to begin in 2H25, completed in two phases in 2026 and 2027, with estimated corporate capital of ~$220-230 million and a target 5-year average incremental annual asset CAFD yield of ~11-13%[13,19] - The company signed a 15-year PPA for Goat Mountain repowering with a hyperscaler customer, targeting a 2027 COD, with estimated corporate capital of ~$200 million and a target 5-year average incremental annual asset CAFD yield of +10%[13,19] - The company received an offer to invest in a 291 MW battery storage portfolio, requiring ~$65 million of estimated corporate capital[13] - The company closed a 3rd party M&A agreement for the operational Catalina Solar project, requiring ~$122 million of estimated corporate capital[13] Pipeline & Future Growth - The late-stage pipeline through 2029 vintages has over $1.5 billion of potential corporate capital investments beyond already offered/committed projects/advanced repowerings[32] - Clearway Group has 9.4 GW of late-stage projects through the end of the decade[13,60]

Core Insights - The company has published its factsheet detailing its investment portfolio, key events, business strategy, operating segments, and financial indicators as of June 30, 2025 [1] Financial Performance - For the year-to-date 2025, the total revenue reached 5,634 kEUR and EBITDA amounted to 3,138 kEUR [6] - The company has successfully refinanced 37.2 mEUR of outstanding green bonds due in December 2025 through a new 100 mEUR Green Bonds Programme [6] Project Developments - The construction of the PV Energy Projects portfolio, totaling 67.8 MW, is nearing completion, with 47.9 MW operational as of the reporting period [6] - In the PL SUN sp. z o.o. portfolio, with a total capacity of 113.99 MW, the first phase (66.6 MW) is largely completed, with 20 MW energized in the current quarter [6] - The Energy Production license for the Anykščiai wind farm was obtained in August 2024, while Jonava and Rokiškis wind farms received their licenses in April 2025 [6] - Construction for a 112 MW wind farm under Zala Elektriba SIA is scheduled to begin in mid-July [6] Hybrid and Wind Projects - Hybrid projects managed by UAB "Ekoelektra" and UAB "KNT Holding" are progressing, with most land lease agreements and servitudes secured [4]

Core Viewpoint - Pardee Resources Company is making a significant investment in renewable energy by acquiring a 90% equity interest in four partnerships to install solar photovoltaic systems in Virginia schools, totaling an investment of $15.2 million [1]. Investment Details - The investment will be partially financed through commercial bank loans amounting to $8.3 million at the partnership level [1]. - The solar photovoltaic systems will have a total capacity of 4.6 MW and are scheduled for installation and service commencement in Q4 2025 [1]. Strategic Partnership - Pardee Resources Company is partnering with Secure Solar Futures, a Virginia-based solar developer, to execute this renewable energy project [1]. - The investment qualifies for federal investment tax credits, which will be utilized by the company [1].

Core Viewpoint - INVL Renewable Energy Fund I is raising up to EUR 15 million through a bond offering by REFI Sun, targeting retail and institutional investors in the Baltic countries from July 28 to August 15 [1][4]. Group 1: Bond Offering Details - The bonds have a maturity of 2.5 years with a fixed interest rate expected to be between 7.5% and 8.5%, announced upon completion of the offering, and interest will be paid quarterly [2]. - The minimum investment amount for the bond offering is set at EUR 1,000 [4]. - The lead arranger for the bond program is Artea Bank, with participation from Evernord, LHV Pank, and Signet Bank as distribution partners [5]. Group 2: Fund's Investment Strategy - The funds raised will primarily refinance a previous loan and support the construction of solar power plants in Romania and Poland, where the fund sees significant growth potential [3][8]. - The total capacity of projects in development in Poland and Romania is 389 MW, with investments expected to exceed EUR 250 million [8][9]. - As of June 2025, the fund has invested over EUR 90 million in the acquisition and construction of solar projects, with completion expected by the end of 2027 [9]. Group 3: Fund Background and Performance - The INVL Renewable Energy Fund I was established on July 20, 2021, focusing on early- and mid-stage renewable energy projects in the EU and EEA [11]. - The fund has successfully raised EUR 73.9 million from investors through investment units and bonds to date [10]. - In February 2025, the fund's company REFI Energy completed an EUR 8 million bond offering with strong demand, indicating investor confidence in the fund's management [7].

Core Insights - California Water Service (Cal Water) has signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with EDPR NA Distributed Generation LLC for a solar photovoltaic array to be installed at its Northeast Bakersfield Treatment Plant, aimed at reducing environmental impact and energy costs [1][2][3] Group 1: Partnership Details - The solar array will have a capacity of 2.35 MWdc / 1.75 MWac and is expected to generate approximately 3,800 megawatt-hours of renewable energy annually [1][2] - The partnership is projected to save about $1.7 million in grid energy costs over the agreement's term, based on current electric rates in the Bakersfield District [2] Group 2: Company Commitments - Cal Water emphasizes its commitment to environmental stewardship and aims to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets through this partnership [3] - The company has been recognized as one of "America's Most Responsible Companies" and "World's Most Trustworthy Companies" by Newsweek, highlighting its dedication to sustainability and community well-being [4] Group 3: EDPR NA DG Overview - EDPR NA Distributed Generation focuses on accelerating the adoption of distributed generation and has an operating capacity of 337 MW across 545 active sites [5] - The company provides a comprehensive range of renewable energy services, including financing, development, construction, and operation of energy and storage assets [5]

Industry Transformation - The utility energy industry is experiencing a significant transformation due to global decarbonization efforts, technological advancements, and changing regulatory environments [1] - There is a notable increase in investments in renewable energy, driven by rising demand influenced by AI-driven data [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the opportunity for South Africa, as the G20 chair, to advocate for issues related to emerging economies, particularly the subsidies provided to private fossil fuel companies [2] - Fossil fuel subsidies are defined as government payments that cover part of the costs of fossil fuel energy production, which can increase revenues for oil, gas, or coal companies or lower consumer prices [2][3] - Countries like South Africa, Ethiopia, and Morocco provide subsidies to fossil fuel companies, which may lead to increased debt, higher taxes, or cuts in public spending, disproportionately affecting low-income households [2] Group 2 - South Africa has set four key priorities for its G20 presidency in 2025: enhancing disaster resilience, reducing debt levels, raising funds for the transition to renewable energy, and establishing a green industry [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, a concept supported by organizations like the IMF, UNEP, and IEA, as well as civil society advocacy groups [3] - Despite a 2009 G20 commitment to gradually eliminate fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and hinder climate change efforts, progress has been slow due to political resistance and lobbying from the fossil fuel industry [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported first quarter 2025 earnings of $2.27 per share, indicating a solid start to the year [21] - The earnings guidance for 2025 is projected to be in the range of $5.17 to $5.27 per share, assuming normal weather conditions [22] - The Board of Directors raised the dividend by 6.9%, marking the 22nd consecutive year of dividend increases [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focused on a balanced power generation mix, with plans to add 4,300 megawatts of renewable generation over the next five years, requiring an investment of $9.1 billion [24] - Significant investments are planned in natural gas generation and liquefied natural gas storage to enhance reliability [24][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Economic development opportunities are expected to drive significant growth in electricity demand, with major investments from companies like Microsoft and Eli Lilly in the region [22][23] - The company anticipates a compound annual growth rate in earnings of 6.5% to 7% [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced a $28 billion investment plan, the largest in its history, aimed at supporting safety, reliability, and growth [23] - The capital plan includes projects for renewable energy, natural gas generation, and strengthening the distribution network [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ability to execute the capital plan and highlighted the bright future and significant investment opportunities ahead [27] - The company is focused on maintaining reliability while integrating a mix of energy sources to meet growing capacity needs [30][34] Other Important Information - The proposals to amend the articles of incorporation and bylaws to eliminate supermajority voting did not pass, while the advisory vote on executive compensation was approved [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will there be less demand for renewable energy during the Trump years? - Management indicated that a mix of energy sources, including renewables, is necessary to meet growing electricity demand, and customers are benefiting from fuel savings due to renewables [29][31] Question: Why not invest in reliable power sources like nuclear instead of renewables? - Management emphasized the need for a mix of energy sources and noted that nuclear is a long-term option that requires significant time to develop [32][34] Question: Can you comment on the current regulatory environment in Illinois and the Chicago pipeline replacement program? - Management reported receiving clarity on the need to replace approximately 1,100 miles of old pipeline and is ramping up efforts to execute the replacement program efficiently [35][37]