I sat down with @jvisserlabs at Bitcoin Investor Week to discuss why software stocks are losing their moats, how AI is driving deflation, and why capital is rotating toward scarce assets.We explore hyperscalers, data centers, AI agents, and why bitcoin may emerge as the only true growth asset in a world of abundant intelligence.YouTube: https://t.co/WOXY11DOFiSpotify: https://t.co/kUln77LICbApple: https://t.co/BbvVmUa0nsTIMESTAMP:0:00 - Intro0:56 – Cathie Wood’s AI take & why Jordi disagrees4:30 – Why Big T ...

One drastic solution to the scarcity is to rewrite music, or to write new music differently. But the loss of a voice is audible all the same https://t.co/o6PFJ54gNN ...

What is it about the Super Bowl that allows it to defy gravity and remain the one piece of American television that everyone watches? In a word, scarcity. The NFL has perfected the art of giving people what they want — but not too much. https://t.co/3TfbeM4gTa ...

Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) price recently dropped below $70,000. It's now pulled back more than 40% from its all-time high last October and has given up all its gains since President Trump won the election on Nov. 5, 2024. That sell-off can be attributed to elevated Treasury yields, a murky outlook for future interest rate cuts, and other macro headwinds -- which all drove investors to book profits and rotate toward more conservative investments. As Bitcoin's price plunged, leveraged liquidations at key supp ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are encouraged to focus on Bitcoin as the leading digital asset, especially given its current price being significantly below its all-time high, indicating a potential buying opportunity [2][8]. Market Performance - Bitcoin has experienced a remarkable increase of nearly 23,000% over the past decade, although it is currently trading 28% below its peak from October of the previous year, placing it in a bear market [2][3]. - As of the latest data, Bitcoin's market cap stands at $1.6 trillion, representing 59% of the entire cryptocurrency market [5][7]. Competitive Advantage - Bitcoin's first-mover advantage has established it as the most recognized cryptocurrency, with a strong brand presence among the general public [3][4]. - The asset benefits from deep liquidity due to its substantial market cap and is gradually being adopted for both investment and transactional purposes [3][5]. Network Effect - The presence of miners, nodes, and developers contributes to a powerful network effect, enhancing Bitcoin's value proposition and making it challenging for competitors to displace it [4][5]. Future Outlook - Ark Invest projects that Bitcoin's market share could rise to 70% by 2030, reinforcing the belief that Bitcoin will continue to dominate the cryptocurrency market despite the proliferation of other digital assets [5]. - Bitcoin's scarcity, with a hard supply cap of 21 million units, is a critical factor that makes it an attractive addition to investment portfolios, especially in the context of fiat currency debasement [7]. Investment Strategy - Bitcoin is recommended as a long-term investment, ideally held for 10 years or more, despite its inherent volatility, which has been decreasing as the cryptocurrency matures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken significantly due to persistent federal government deficits and rising national debt, which may lead to increased money printing [2]. Group 1: Economic Context - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that federal government deficits will continue for decades, pushing national debt towards approximately 150% of GDP [2]. - The need to pay interest on this growing debt is likely to necessitate the printing of more money, contributing to inflationary pressures [2]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Bitcoin is highlighted as a scarce asset with a maximum supply of 21 million coins, over 93% of which have already been mined, making it a potential hedge against inflation [5][6]. - Zcash mimics Bitcoin's supply design with a fixed cap of 21 million tokens and includes a privacy feature that may raise regulatory concerns, making it a higher-risk investment [7][9]. - Ethereum serves as the primary smart contract platform in the crypto sector, offering utility through decentralized applications and decentralized finance, while also having a reasonable supply situation [10].

Core Viewpoint - The current price of Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC) is under $400, while Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is priced around $93,000, leading some to suggest that Zcash could become as profitable as Bitcoin if purchased now. However, this notion is often misleading and oversimplified [1]. Group 1 - Zcash is priced at $375 as of January 19, with a market cap of approximately $6.2 billion, which is significantly smaller than Bitcoin's market cap of nearly $1.9 trillion [7]. - The concept of unit bias is prevalent among crypto investors, where the price of an asset is misleadingly equated with its potential for growth, ignoring market capitalization [6]. - Zcash shares a design feature with Bitcoin, having a capped supply of 21 million coins, but for it to reach Bitcoin's level, several conditions must be met in the coming years [10]. Group 2 - Bitcoin's supply policy includes a hard cap of 21 million coins and a halving schedule for mining rewards, which contributes to its increasing value over time [8]. - The comparison between Zcash and Bitcoin based solely on current prices is flawed, as historical price points do not guarantee future performance [9].

4 year cycle is NOT the same as stock-to-flow model.The 4 year cycle says that the year after a halving is a bull year, like 2013, 2017, 2021 🟩🟥🟩🟩 and 2025 did obviously not fit that pattern.But S2F says nothing about bull or bear, top or bottom. S2F is the thesis that scarcity drives value, that bitcoin should (ultimately) be more valuable than gold because BTC is scarcer than gold. S2F models the rough path of nonlinear phase transitions towards $30T+. S2F roughly models the average price during a 4 year ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **European Metals and Mining** sector, discussing trends such as **consolidation**, **scarcity**, and **regionalization** in the industry [2][78]. Core Insights 1. **Copper Supply Stress**: Anticipated intensification of copper supply stress in 2026 due to mine disruptions, a thin project pipeline, and new demand drivers such as data centers and grid upgrades. This is expected to maintain a scarcity premium in copper equities, supported by mark-to-market earnings upgrades [7]. 2. **Consolidation Trends**: The proposed merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources is seen as a potential inflection point for the sector, emphasizing the need for consolidation in copper production. Currently, the top five producers control only about 26% of global copper supply, compared to 75% in iron ore, indicating a strong industrial logic for scale [8]. 3. **Policy Landscape**: An improving policy environment in the EU is shifting the industry towards a multipolar structure. New trade measures are altering the economics of steel and aluminum, with companies like voestalpine and Norsk Hydro positioned to benefit from these changes [9]. 4. **Demand from Electrification**: The demand for metals, particularly copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium, is expected to rise significantly due to electrification and the growth of electric vehicles (EVs). For instance, incremental demand from EVs for copper is projected to be 601 kt from 2024 to 2027 [78][80]. Financial Metrics and Valuations 1. **Valuation Metrics**: The report highlights various valuation metrics for diversified miners, including a forecasted free cash flow yield of 6% and a dividend yield of 3% for 2025 [98]. 2. **EBITDA Upgrades**: There are consensus mining EBITDA upgrades on spot prices, with a projected increase of 15% for 2026 [112]. 3. **Industry Profitability**: The profitability of the copper industry is expected to remain strong, with spot prices above marginal costs for several metals, including copper and platinum [44][46]. Additional Insights 1. **Competition for Assets**: There is an increasing competition for quality copper assets, which is expected to underpin equity valuations, particularly for companies with copper-rich portfolios [8]. 2. **Long-term Supply/Demand Balances**: The long-term supply and demand balances for copper are supportive, with low inventories indicating a potential for price increases [63]. 3. **Regional Demand Variations**: The demand for metals varies significantly by region, with China and India showing distinct trends in production and consumption [32][37]. Conclusion The European Metals and Mining sector is poised for significant changes driven by supply constraints, consolidation efforts, and increasing demand from electrification and EVs. Companies that can strategically position themselves in this evolving landscape are likely to benefit from enhanced valuations and profitability.

Behavioral Psychology in Investing - Scarcity: Limited availability increases perceived value [1] - Reciprocation: Obligation to return favors influences decisions [1] - Social Proof: Mimicking crowd behavior, especially under uncertainty, impacts choices [1] - Liking: Persuasion is easier from those who are liked or found attractive [1] - Authority: Opinions from perceived authorities carry significant weight [1] - Consistency/Commitment: Sticking to previous conclusions or choices is common [1] - Unity: Identifying with a group leads to favoring in-group members [1]