Group 1 - Copper prices rebounded by as much as 4.9% to $13,526 a ton on the London Metal Exchange after an 11% decline from a record high [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association called for an expansion of strategic reserves and collaboration with state-owned producers to increase commercial stockpiles [1] - Signs of dip-buying from investors in China, the largest consumer of copper, contributed to the price rally as fabricators returned to the market to replenish stocks ahead of the Lunar New Year [2] Group 2 - Fabricators are willing to buy copper when prices correct by more than 10%, indicating strong fundamental support for the metal [3] - Investor interest in metals has surged due to doubts about the US dollar and a shift away from currencies and sovereign bonds, leading to significant price rallies in January [3] - However, drivers for further price increases have weakened due to uncertainty over US monetary policy and reduced risks of a supply squeeze on the LME [4] Group 3 - Spot prices are trading at a discount to the three-month benchmark contract on the LME, indicating ample near-term supplies [5] - Large premiums on Comex contracts over LME contracts have diminished, which may discourage metal flows to the US ahead of potential import tariffs [5]

Market Trends - Copper traded near a record high, indicating strong market confidence [1] - Investors are betting on a continued copper rally [1] Supply and Demand - The rally is fueled by US stockpiling, suggesting increased demand [1] - Tight global supply is contributing to the upward price pressure [1]

As the world’s largest importer of commodities transforms global markets, it is wasting money, creating dependencies and exposing itself to new risk. What is behind China’s stockpiling strategy? https://t.co/WsTPlf2SK6 ...

All right. So, how should we interpret this big rebound. Not huge rebound.We didn't recover all the losses, but a a a percent and a half move to the upside on oil just off a social media post and some comments is pretty significant. Does that mean that investors now don't believe that tensions are going to ramp up and they just simply don't believe we're going to see that 100% increase to tariffs. >> I do think both sides tried to deescalate the situation over the weekend.So I do think there'll be some um c ...

Group 1 - The recent rebound in oil prices, although not a full recovery, indicates a significant market reaction to social media posts and comments, suggesting a belief that tensions may not escalate further [1][2] - Market sentiment reflects an expectation that both the US and China will maintain current tariff levels around 53% rather than increasing them to 100%, despite a deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop [2][3] - There has been a shift away from safe haven assets, with gold and silver rallying, indicating that the overall macro environment is not favorable for risk appetite [3] Group 2 - Concerns about a global economic slowdown, particularly between the US and China, have been prevalent, with China stockpiling significant amounts in its strategic petroleum reserve [4][5] - Chinese stockpiling has been a critical factor in the oil market, with 90% of stock increases this year going into Chinese reserves, keeping the physical market tight [5][6] - The broader implications of stockpiling extend beyond oil, touching on issues like dollarization and potential currency devaluation, which could affect import costs [7] Group 3 - For investors, the key question is whether the outcome of US-China trade talks matters for the oil market, with the consensus being that a resolution allowing for continued global economic growth is more important than which side prevails [8] - Current oil demand growth is estimated to be around 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day, which is manageable, but concerns arise if conditions worsen, potentially leading to demand growth dropping to half a million barrels per day or less [9][10] - Initial fears that drove market reactions have subsided, indicating that the worst-case scenarios may no longer be anticipated [10]

Market Trends & Industry Dynamics - China is expected to accelerate crude stockpiling through 2026 [1] - Lower prices are driving a buying spree [1] - Energy security concerns are fueling the stockpiling [1] Analyst Predictions - Goldman Group predicts accelerated crude stockpiling [1]

I guess if you take away the worst case scenario, that's actually helpful for lower oil prices. A couple of things to consider, though. One, Ali McCrossin RBC said over the weekend that she would caution against that knee jerk reaction that, quote, The worst is behind us.Now, the other factor to consider here, irrespective of the supply issue that may or may not happen with Iran is the demand side. So there's been a lot of stockpiling by China, a lot of stockpiling by other countries within the West as well ...