Welcome to ETF Edge, your go-to place for all things exchange traded funds. I'm your host, Dominic Chu. From a new Fed share nominee to a hard turn to risk off trading in some parts of the market, the broader landscape is rapidly changing for ETF investors.Joining me now is Joanna Gyos, the co-founder and COO of Bond Blocks, alongside Todd Son, the technical strategist over at Strategica Securities. Thank you both for being with us this uh this afternoon here. I'm going to start a little bit with you, Joann ...

Joining us now, George Heel. He's the vice president of commodity research at George, great to have you with us. >> Thanks for having me.>> You know, it's funny that we we had this list of fundamental reasons why the metals would decline today and yet the move has been sort of memeish, which is by definition not pinned by fundamental drivers. So, what did you make of the of the drop today. Of course.Well, I think you know silver has obviously had a outsized move against gold over the last few months and thi ...

Gold Market Outlook - Gold has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 this year, with predictions from Goldman Sachs suggesting a price target of $4,900 to $5,100 by the end of 2026 [1][4] - Despite the bullish outlook, there is an expectation of a substantial pullback in gold prices, with central bank buying anticipated to resume and accelerate into 2026 [2][10] - The current price levels of gold may not justify initiating new positions, as the reward-to-risk ratio for new longs is considered unfavorable [5][6] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider reallocating gains from gold into sectors with more constructive growth potential, such as AI [5][10] - Gold miners have shown tremendous returns, with ETFs like VANC gold miners ETF up over 160%, presenting a more conservative investment approach for 2026 [7][8] - The miners are expected to benefit from higher gold prices, maintaining larger profit margins even if gold prices stabilize [10] Silver Market Dynamics - Silver has seen a remarkable return of 150% this year, driven by its dual role as both an industrial and precious metal, particularly benefiting from electrification and AI demands [11][12][19] - The current market dynamics suggest that silver could still be a good buy even if it experiences a 15% decline, as it is positioned to take advantage of ongoing industrial demand [14][18] - There is a noted deficit in the silver market, which differentiates the current situation from past short squeezes [18][20] Copper Market Insights - Copper is on track for its largest annual gain since 2009, driven by the ongoing AI electrification buildout [15][17] - The medium to long-term outlook for copper remains positive, with expectations of continued structural deficits due to increasing industrial demand [17][24] - However, there are concerns about froth in copper prices, as current levels may not align with actual industrial demand [24] Comparative Analysis with Cryptocurrencies - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have outperformed cryptocurrencies this year, with gold up over 70% and silver up 165% year-to-date, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin's decline of 7% [28][30] - The liquidity and stability of precious metals are attracting investors away from the more volatile crypto market [29][30]

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Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) is considering lifting the ban on banks providing digital asset services, with potential new regulations expected by April 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The BCRA previously prohibited banks from facilitating cryptocurrency operations for clients, but the stance has shifted towards a more crypto-friendly approach following the election of President Javier Milei in 2023 [2]. - New regulations could allow banks to offer digital asset-related services, indicating a significant policy shift in Argentina's financial landscape [1][2]. Group 2: Cryptocurrency Adoption in Argentina - Argentina is recognized as a global leader in grassroots cryptocurrency adoption, largely due to an economic crisis characterized by triple-digit inflation, strict capital controls, and distrust in the local currency [3]. - The country ranks 15th globally for active crypto wallet users, with approximately 10 million users [3]. Group 3: Market Activity - From July 2023 to June 2024, Argentina is projected to have $91 billion in on-chain transaction volume, making it the most active crypto market in Latin America [4]. - Over 60% of this transaction activity involves stablecoins, which are utilized by Argentines to dollarize savings and safeguard purchasing power against currency devaluation [4]. Group 4: Regional Context - In Latin America, Brazil has established comprehensive laws for banks to provide crypto services, while Panama has a more permissive but less structured approach [5]. - El Salvador, which made bitcoin legal tender in 2021, has recently introduced a banking law allowing private banks to offer digital asset services to high-net-worth investors [5].

Core Insights - The shift of dollar-pegged stablecoins from trading tools to retail products is driven by inflation and weak currencies in various economies [1][2] - Tether's strategy involves allocating profits into Bitcoin while expanding USDT issuance, and OKX has launched a high-yield stablecoin wallet and card in Brazil [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Access and Local Economic Conditions - Tether's ongoing Bitcoin allocation is linked to the growth of USDT, providing dollar liquidity through continuous crypto operations [3] - The demand for dollar proxies may increase as local savings tools lose purchasing power, raising questions about the speed of retail flow migration [3] Group 2: OKX's Product Launch in Brazil - OKX's new wallet and card offer interest on dollar balances and facilitate easy conversion from reais to stablecoins [4] - The design of these tools reduces friction in spending and may prompt regulatory assessments on their interaction with local financial systems [4] Group 3: Implications of Dollar Tokens - Dollar tokens can enhance payment access and remittances but may also lead to increased dollarization and liquidity moving outside traditional banks [5] - Regulatory clarity on reserves and cross-border use will determine whether these services complement or replace local financial systems [5] Group 4: Market Structure and Liquidity - A larger base of retail dollar balances can support smoother settlement across cryptocurrency pairs and stabilize funding during market fluctuations [6] - Controlled expansion of stablecoin supply with reliable redemption can help recover liquidity faster after market shocks [6] Group 5: Transparency and Yield - Issuers offering yield should enhance transparency regarding reserves and conduct regular independent checks to maintain user trust [7] - Clear explanations of asset and liability shifts are essential to prevent liquidity strains during periods of volatility [7]

Currency & Economic Policy - The dollar provides a store of value for those escaping inflation resulting from lenient economic policies [1] - America should not actively promote dollarization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates is viewed as a mistake, with inflation remaining significantly above the target, necessitating higher rates instead [2][3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Fed is perceived to have stopped hiking rates prematurely, which is considered a misstep [2][3]. - The current inflation rate is at least 50% above the Fed's target, indicating a need for higher interest rates [2]. - The Fed's balance sheet remains at $6.7 trillion, which is significantly larger than the $4 trillion at the end of QE3, suggesting ongoing debt monetization [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted negatively to the Fed's rate cut, with a notable flattening of the yield curve, particularly in the two-year and ten-year bonds [7][9]. - Long-term interest rates are expected to rise following the rate cut, as the bond market does not believe inflation will return to the 2% target [14][15]. - The price of gold is projected to increase significantly due to the anticipated decline in the dollar's value and the Fed's easing stance on inflation [13][16]. Group 3: Future Expectations - There is speculation that the December rate cut may be the last for a while, as dissenting opinions within the Fed indicate a shift in future policy [8][12]. - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) is seen as a precursor to a potential return to quantitative easing (QE) [16].

Gold Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing a rebound after facing back-to-back losses, marking the first negative week in ten weeks, indicating a shift in momentum [1] - A significant level for gold was around 4,000, which was tested recently, showcasing strong buying interest [2][3] Market Influences - Recent sanctions on Russian oil companies are contributing to a bullish outlook for gold, as these sanctions may drive money away from the dollar and into gold [4][5] - The concept of dollarization is gaining traction, with implications for gold as a tier one asset on balance sheets, supported by widening fiscal deficits [4][5] Mining Companies Insights - Companies like Newmont and Agnico Eagle are trading below their long-term forward price-to-earnings ratios, presenting potential investment opportunities [6] - Year-over-year earnings growth for Newmont is expected to be between 70-80%, with significant free cash flow anticipated [7] - Mining companies are experiencing stagnant input costs relative to revenue growth, which could lead to substantial capital returns to shareholders through buybacks or dividends [8]

Core Insights - Citi has raised its 2030 market cap outlook for stablecoins to $1.9 trillion, reflecting growth in the crypto market since the passage of the GENIUS Act in July [1] - Stablecoins account for 5%–10% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization and are primarily used as an on-ramp to crypto [1] Market Dynamics - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar or gold, playing a crucial role in payment infrastructure and international money transfers [2] - Tether's USDT is the largest stablecoin, followed by Circle's USDC [2] Banking Impact - The impact of stablecoins on bank deposits is expected to be modest, with potential shifts in funding costs and lending appetites, similar to the rise of money market funds in the 1980s [3] - The stablecoin boom has increased activity on the Ethereum blockchain, although this dominance may diminish as issuers create their own networks [3] Adoption Drivers - The primary driver for stablecoin adoption is their role as a "store of value" in emerging markets facing inflation or weak institutions, which may increase demand for dollar assets [4] - Payments remain a niche use case, primarily involving small transactions [4] Regulatory Landscape - The U.S. dollar continues to dominate the stablecoin market, but euro-denominated stablecoins are beginning to gain traction [5] - New regulations in Hong Kong could significantly reshape the stablecoin landscape outside the U.S. [5]