Core Viewpoint - Oil prices remained stable on Wednesday following a rise in the previous session, driven by expectations that the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown could increase demand in the world's largest crude oil consumer [1] Group 1 - Oil prices showed little change after a previous increase, indicating market stability [1] - The potential end of the U.S. government shutdown is anticipated to boost demand for oil [1] - The U.S. is recognized as the largest consumer of crude oil globally, highlighting the significance of its government operations on oil demand [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dow futures are experiencing a positive trend, driven by optimism regarding the potential conclusion of the longest US government shutdown in history [1] Group 1 - Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by over 200 points [1] - This rise reflects a change of approximately 0.2% [1]

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) had a rough week, with the token briefly slipping below $100,000, its lowest level in six months. On Friday, the world's largest cryptocurrency was sitting as much as 20% off its all-time high of above $126,000 notched on Oct. 6. Wall Street has attributed the slide to early adopters offloading their large holdings. Since late June, net sales from long-term holders have exceeded 1 million bitcoin, according to research from Compass Point analyst Ed Engel. A massive liquidation of lever ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the internal divisions within the Japanese government regarding exchange rate policies, highlighting a preference for a weaker Yen by the PM office to boost exports, while the Ministry of Finance prioritizes exchange rate stability [1][4] - The "Takaichi trade" may face challenges due to the coalition government's constraints, potentially leading to a smaller fiscal stimulus package than expected, which could result in a rapid pullback of the USD/JPY exchange rate [2][3] - The rapid depreciation of the Yen has raised concerns among officials, prompting verbal interventions to warn against excessive volatility [4][6] Government and Monetary Policy - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has formed a coalition with Ishin, which may limit aggressive reflationary policies and lead to a more balanced economic approach [3] - The Bank of Japan is experiencing internal debates regarding monetary policy, with a hawkish faction advocating for interest rate hikes, while a cautious faction emphasizes the need for data-driven decisions [7][8][9][10][11] - The upcoming Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is critical, as signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda could influence market expectations and the direction of the Yen [18] Market Reactions and Expectations - The market reacted strongly to the government's fiscal expansion expectations, leading to a weaker Yen and increased pressure on Japanese government bonds [5][13] - The U.S. economic resilience, indicated by lower initial jobless claims, supports the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate decisions, maintaining a significant interest rate gap with Japan [14][15][17] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, creating a paradox where the lack of data may prevent immediate easing, thus supporting the USD/JPY exchange rate [16][17]

just walk me through your latest estimate on exactly what the price is going to look like at the end of Q4 and how much more steam does this gold rally actually have. >> We look at the foundations of this rally. Yes, it started with a lot of central bank buying, record buying over the past couple of years, but this year that buying momentum tilted towards the ETF buyers and that has accelerated at a pace that we haven't seen since 2020.In fact, we're now just 20 tons shy of the all-time high that was reache ...

Group 1: Dollar Index and Economic Factors - The dollar index (DXY00) is up by +0.07% at a 1-week high, supported by weakness in the British pound following a weaker-than-expected UK September CPI report [1] - US-China trade tensions have eased, contributing to dollar strength after President Trump expressed optimism about relations with China [1] - Ongoing US government shutdown poses a bearish outlook for the dollar, with potential implications for the US economy and Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Euro and ECB Insights - The markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] - The euro (EUR/USD) is down by -0.05% at a 1-week low, influenced by dollar strength and a budget impasse in France [2] - ECB Vice President Guindos stated that the current ECB interest-rate level is "adequate," providing some support to the euro despite the bearish sentiment [2][3] Group 3: Japanese Yen and Trade Data - The USD/JPY is up by +0.01%, with the yen remaining relatively unchanged [4] - Japanese trade data shows September exports rose by +4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase in seven months, while imports rose by +3.3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations [5] - Concerns about new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi advocating for a less hawkish monetary policy may limit gains in the yen [4]

Group 1: Japanese Economic Data - Japanese exports increased by 4.2% year-on-year in September, rebounding from a 0.1% decline in August, while imports rose by 3.3% [1] - The rebound in demand is attributed to the US-Japan trade deal, where the US reduced tariffs on Japanese goods to 15% [1] Group 2: US-China Trade Relations - A 155% tariff on Chinese shipments raises concerns about a potential trade war, which could impact the global economy and risk sentiment [2] - US tariff threats are expected to continue influencing market risk appetite [6] Group 3: US Stock Market Sentiment - US stock futures experienced modest declines, with the Dow Jones E-mini falling 16 points and the Nasdaq 100 E-mini dropping 41 points [3] - The market remains focused on the potential for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts, with probabilities for 25-basis point cuts in October and December at 98.9% and 98.7%, respectively [4] Group 4: Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing US government shutdown could lead to more aggressive Fed rate cuts, as the previous shutdown in 2018-2019 reduced GDP by approximately 0.4% [5] - A Senate impasse may delay key economic data reports, which could support expectations for multiple Fed rate cuts [7] Group 5: Technical Analysis of US Indices - Despite morning losses, US stock futures remain above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, indicating bullish momentum [8] - Key resistance and support levels for the Dow Jones include a record high of 47,334 and support levels at 47,000, 46,750, and 46,500 [8]

Currency Market Overview - The dollar index (DXY) is up by +0.30%, reaching a four-session high, driven by weakness in the yen and easing US-China trade tensions [1] - The yen has fallen to a one-week low against the dollar, influenced by expectations that new Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi will maintain an expansionary fiscal policy [1][5] - The euro is down by -0.26% due to the strength of the dollar and negative sentiment from S&P Global Ratings cutting France's sovereign debt credit rating [3] Economic Indicators - The October Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing business activity survey fell by -9.9 to a four-month low of -22.2, indicating a slowdown in business activity [2] - Markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [2] Japanese Economic Developments - Japan's September machine tool orders were revised upward to +11.0% year-on-year, marking the largest increase in six months [6] - The yen is under pressure as Takaichi's policies favor increased deficit spending and expanded financial stimulus, alongside a rise in the Nikkei Stock Index to a new record high [5]

Group 1 - The dollar reached its strongest level in two months due to political risks abroad and a lack of US economic data [1] - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained flat after gains were erased by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, who supports further interest-rate cuts [2] - Demand for dollar-bullish structures has outpaced bearish ones, indicating a shift in market sentiment favoring the dollar [3] Group 2 - The US government shutdown has muted concerns about a softening labor market, reducing incentives for traders to sell the dollar [4] - Political risks in Japan and France have led to a repositioning in major currencies, with hedge funds closing short-dollar positions and showing interest in bullish exposure [5] - Hedge funds in Europe and Asia are increasing option trades, anticipating a weakening of currencies like the euro and yen against the dollar [6]

Core Insights - Investors significantly increased their investments in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in September, leading to the largest monthly inflow on record, with 146 tonnes added, compared to 53 tonnes in August [2][3] - The total monetary inflow for September reached $17.3 billion, pushing assets under management (AUM) to a new high of $472.5 billion, with third-quarter inflows totaling $26 billion, the strongest ever for any quarter [3][4] North American Market - North American investors contributed the most, adding 89 tonnes of gold worth $10.6 billion in September, resulting in total holdings of 1,966 tonnes and AUM of $245.5 billion [4][5] - This marks the fourth consecutive month of inflows for North American funds, driven by ongoing trade, policy, and geopolitical risks, alongside expectations of lower yields [5] European Market - European gold ETFs experienced their third-best month of inflows in September, with 37 tonnes added, raising total holdings to 1,436 tonnes and AUM to $176.6 billion [6][7] - The UK, Switzerland, and Germany were the leading countries in this activity, with the strong gold price rally contributing to increased demand [7] Asian Market - In Asia, gold ETFs added 18 tonnes valued at $2.1 billion, increasing total holdings to 334 tonnes and AUM to $41.6 billion, driven by strong demand in China and India [8] - The inflows in Asia were attributed to favorable local currency dynamics and heightened investment demand amid weaker domestic equities and ongoing geopolitical risks [8]