July 1, 2021 CNBC reports my warning that meme stocks were set to crash.The red arrow belows points to July 1, 2021https://t.co/vrls1izhdy https://t.co/gmXEumc0Ww ...

Core Insights - The appetite for risk-taking remains high as the year-end 2025 approaches, despite the volatility in assets like Bitcoin [1] - "Meme stocks" are experiencing healthy trading activity, indicating continued interest in speculative investments [1] Industry Analysis - The technology sector is influenced by various themes shaped by experienced analysts and advisers, highlighting the importance of insights from professionals with backgrounds in both Wall Street and Silicon Valley [1] - The presence of contributors like Gary Alexander, who has been active since 2017, suggests a growing community of analysts providing diverse perspectives on market trends [1]

Market Sentiment & Meme Coin Performance - The author publicly expressed bearish sentiment towards meme coins after Trump-related events [1] - Meme coins experienced significant declines, with drops exceeding 70% [1] - The author hopes for a rebound in meme coin prices [1] Personal Reflection - The author reflects on the difficulty of aligning actions with knowledge ("知行合一") [1] - The author finds revisiting past posts insightful ("常看常新") [1]

Dogecoin Overview - Dogecoin aims to enhance its network with smart-contract functionality, allowing developers to create decentralized applications and integrate gaming features, potentially increasing demand for the cryptocurrency [1] - The Dogecoin community remains vibrant, and the token's relevance is maintained through its correlation with the broader crypto market [2] - Despite its popularity, Dogecoin lacks substantial real-world utility and has a high circulating supply of over 151.5 billion tokens, which affects its perception as a store of value [3][4] Beyond Meat Overview - Beyond Meat, with a market cap of $660 million, specializes in plant-based meat products but has seen its stock decline over 97% since going public in 2019 [7] - The company has faced challenges due to high production costs and increased competition, leading to a 20% year-over-year revenue decline in its recent quarter [8] - Reports of potential Chapter 11 bankruptcy surfaced earlier this year, although the company denied these claims [9] Financial Maneuvers - To alleviate its debt burden, Beyond Meat executed a debt-swap deal, reducing its debt by approximately $800 million while issuing over 326 million new shares, resulting in significant dilution [10] - This debt-swap attracted short selling, which in turn drew retail traders aiming to initiate a short squeeze, leading to volatile stock price movements [11] Market Position and Future Outlook - Beyond Meat is currently viewed as a more relevant meme trade due to its recent market activity, while Dogecoin has established a more enduring presence in the crypto sector [12][13] - The potential development of a Layer-2 solution for Dogecoin could serve as a catalyst for its future growth [13]

Core Viewpoint - The market is showing signs of increased speculation, particularly in non-profitable tech stocks, indicating a late stage in the current bull market that began in October 2022 [1][2][3]. Market Conditions - The bull market has been ongoing for nearly four years, with a shift in investor focus from potential losses to potential gains, leading to speculative behavior [1][2]. - Speculative stocks, especially those that are money-losing, have outperformed traditional stocks since the market low in April [2]. Economic Indicators - There is a concern that aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts could pose risks to the market, although the current fiscal policy is providing significant liquidity [3][4]. - Excess liquidity may inflate market bubbles more quickly, reminiscent of the rapid rise and fall of meme stocks in 2021 [5]. Earnings Outlook - Companies have been beating earnings expectations, and Wall Street has been slow to adjust its forecasts, which may lead to upward revisions in earnings estimates for the coming year [8][10]. - The current earnings environment is strong, with companies indicating they cannot keep up with demand, suggesting a positive outlook for certain sectors [11][13]. Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to focus on larger, established companies that are better positioned to meet demand, rather than betting against the market [10][12]. - Investors are encouraged to consider companies that are using cash flow for growth, although those taking on debt may present higher risks [12].

Core Viewpoint - Beyond Meat has experienced significant volatility in its stock price recently, driven by changes in its balance sheet and short covering, but the fundamental challenges facing the company and the plant-based meat category remain unchanged [3][4][10]. Company Performance - Sales and overall performance of Beyond Meat are under pressure, with retail sales in the plant-based meat category declining for five consecutive years and a lack of new households entering the market [2][4]. - The company is expected to face a material impairment charge due to long-term expectations for the category, which have shifted since its IPO in 2019 [5][6][8]. Market Dynamics - The plant-based meat category has struggled due to a focus on animal welfare and environmental issues, while consumer interest is primarily driven by health concerns [7]. - Despite achieving price parity with traditional beef, the demand for animal meat remains strong, presenting a new headwind for plant-based alternatives [9][10]. Valuation Scenarios - The base case valuation for Beyond Meat is set at $1.50 per share, based on discounted cash flow analysis over the next ten years [12]. - The bear case suggests potential downside to $1 or less if similar valuation multiples to peers like Oatly are applied [13][14]. Short Interest and Trading Dynamics - High short interest in Beyond Meat has historically led to short covering squeezes, impacting short-term trading rather than long-term fundamentals [16][17]. - Recent changes in equity float due to convertible exchanges may make it easier to short Beyond Meat shares, potentially increasing downward pressure on the stock [17][18].

Core Insights - Beyond Meat Inc. has joined the ranks of meme stocks, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and interest in the company [1] Company Summary - Beyond Meat is known for producing pea-based meat substitutes, which positions the company within the growing plant-based food industry [1] Industry Summary - The rise of meme stocks reflects a broader trend in the market where retail investors are increasingly influencing stock prices, particularly in sectors like plant-based foods [1]

Core Insights - The discussion focuses on the meme ETF and its impact on stocks like Beyond Meat, highlighting the recent surge in meme stock activity [1][24] - The meme ETF utilizes both quantitative and qualitative methods to identify potential meme stocks, including trading volume, implied volatility, and social sentiment from online communities [2][3] Group 1: Meme ETF Characteristics - The Round Meme ETF identifies stocks based on quantitative data such as trading volume and short interest, combined with qualitative social sentiment analysis [2][3] - The ETF is designed to be adaptive, with the ability to add or remove stocks on a daily basis, although it typically rebalances at least once a week [6][7] - Retail investors have become a significant force in the equity markets, now accounting for around 20% of total trading volume, which has influenced the dynamics of meme stocks [10][11] Group 2: Retail Investor Influence - Retail investors are increasingly recognized for their impact on the market, having shifted from being viewed as "dumb money" to being seen as a formidable force [8][9] - The adaptability of retail investors allows them to respond quickly to market changes, which is reflected in the meme ETF's strategy [11][12] - Retail investors are engaging more deeply with smaller companies, often conducting more research than traditional institutional investors [16] Group 3: Volatility and Strategy - Meme stocks are characterized by high volatility and can be seen as speculative, but they also present opportunities for outsized returns [17][19] - The meme ETF is intended as a satellite allocation in an investment portfolio, allowing investors to tap into retail momentum without being overly exposed [19][20] - The ETF includes a diverse range of stocks, such as Beyond Meat and Crispy Cream, and is designed to adapt to emerging market themes [20][21]

Core Insights - Beyond Meat's stock has experienced extreme volatility, surging by as much as 112% and then dropping nearly 30%, ultimately closing near the flatline. The stock has increased more than fivefold since Monday, primarily due to its inclusion in a new meme ETF [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Beyond Meat's stock has quintupled since Monday, driven by its addition to the meme ETF [1]. - The meme ETF, which began trading on October 8th, has seen a decline of over 9% since its launch [1]. Group 2: Options Market Activity - Beyond Meat's options trading volume was significantly high, with over 3.3 million contracts traded in a single day, indicating strong interest from traders [4]. - The stock traded over 11 times its average daily put volume, suggesting a notable level of bearish sentiment among options traders [3][4]. - A specific block of 5,000 October 24th weekly puts was traded at a strike price of 26, indicating a bet on the stock's decline [4]. Group 3: Market Context - Other meme stocks, such as Donut and Sweet Greens, are also seeing increased activity in the options market, with some stocks trading significantly above their average daily volumes [3][4]. - Many traders are utilizing options for leverage in stocks priced under $5, as margin trading may not be available for these lower-priced shares [5].

Core Insights - Beyond Meat's shares have surged approximately 1,000% over four days, marking a significant rally for a company that has struggled since its stock market debut six years ago [3][4]. Company Performance - Beyond Meat has faced sluggish sales and has not posted a quarterly profit in over five years, as consumer interest in its meat alternatives has waned [4]. - The company's stock price remains significantly below its all-time high of over $230 in 2019, trading just above $4 recently [7]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in Beyond Meat's stock has been fueled by online enthusiasm among retail investors, drawing comparisons to other meme stocks like GameStop and AMC [4]. - The addition of Beyond Meat to Roundhill Investments' meme stock ETF has contributed to a short squeeze, forcing investors who bet against the company to buy shares to cover their losses [5]. Strategic Developments - A distribution deal with Walmart has been announced, which is seen as a potential catalyst for improving demand and increasing product availability [5][6]. - Despite the positive impact of the Walmart deal, there are concerns that it does not resolve all of the company's underlying issues [6]. Market Sentiment - The surge in Beyond Meat's stock occurs amid broader concerns about an overvalued stock market and potential bubbles in sectors like artificial intelligence [8]. - The Securities and Exchange Commission has raised alarms about possible market manipulation related to meme stocks, highlighting risks for everyday investors [9].