Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the economic and trade dynamics in Emerging Asia, focusing on the implications of the 90-day tariff deadline and its potential outcomes for various countries including China, Japan, India, and South Korea [2][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Deadline Scenarios**: The 90-day tariff pause is set to expire on July 9, with three potential outcomes: - Announce deals/frameworks with some trade partners - Extend deadlines with certain partners - Set new tariff rates for remaining partners [2][5]. 2. **Base Case Scenario**: The most likely outcome is an extension of the current status quo, maintaining a 10% baseline tariff for a longer period. This scenario suggests limited market reactions, with a slight risk-on sentiment but constrained upside [3][5]. 3. **Bull Case Scenario**: If trade deals are announced, effective tariffs may decrease, leading to a more optimistic market outlook. This could result in equities outperforming and a stronger performance from export-oriented currencies like KRW and TWD [6][9]. 4. **Bear Case Scenario**: If tariffs increase significantly, particularly above 15%, it could lead to a risk-off market reaction, with a stronger USD and concerns about global growth impacting Asia FX negatively [7][9]. 5. **Market Reactions**: The actual announcements regarding tariffs may be complex, potentially incorporating elements from all scenarios. The focus will remain on effective tariff rates and the risks of subsequent increases, alongside ongoing diversification from USD overweight positions [8][9]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Japan's Industrial Production**: Japan's industrial production increased by 0.5% MoM in May, which was below expectations. Companies are reportedly curbing production in anticipation of potential negative impacts from US tariffs [11]. 2. **China's Economic Indicators**: Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in China exceeded expectations in June, indicating continued growth momentum. However, domestic demand, particularly in property sales, may be waning [11][12]. 3. **India's Trade Dynamics**: Reciprocal tariffs have led to a front-loading of exports to the US, with a notable 25% YoY increase in Indian exports to the US from January to May 2025. However, this has not improved the overall trade balance due to a decline in exports to other regions [12]. 4. **South Korea's GDP Forecast**: The GDP forecast for South Korea has been adjusted downwards for Q2 2025 to 0.3% QoQ, but expectations for Q3 and Q4 have been revised upwards due to anticipated recovery in consumption and positive fiscal measures [12]. 5. **Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts**: The report includes projections for inflation and interest rates across various countries in the region, indicating a cautious outlook for monetary policy adjustments in response to evolving economic conditions [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in Emerging Asia.

pulling a bit of a Cory Booker the last couple of hours. We'll see when that finishes. Congressman Ro Khanna of California has been listening to Hakeem Jeffries, the minority leader, but just popped out for Squawk Box.Good morning to you, sir. >> Good morning. It's been a long night. >> It's been a long night.You're on the losing end of this situation. What do you think the implication is here. >> There are two major problems I have with the bill.One that Larry Summers and Bob Rubin pointed out. This bill i ...

Wednesday, July 2, 2025Ahead of today’s opening bell, the next Jobs Week report has hit the tape, and it is not good: Automatic Data Processing (ADP) private-sector payrolls for June came in negative for the first time since March 2023: -33K. This is obviously notably below the +100K analysts were expecting and the downwardly revised +29K the prior month, which was the previous low in more than two years.Goods-producing jobs held up their end, more or less: +32K last month. Services jobs in the private sect ...

J.P.Morgan Mid-Year O Global Research | June 25, 2025 | Foreword | 03 | | --- | --- | | Executive Summary | 04 | | J.P. Morgan Research Forecasts | 06 | | Global Market Outlook | 07 | | Asset Class Summaries | 11 | | Economics | 11 | | Equities | 1 | | Rates | 26 | | Currencies | 33 | | Credit | 38 | | Emerging Markets | 46 | | Commodities | 50 | | Thematic Research | ਦੇਤੋ | | Contributors | 58 | Foreword Dear Client, We are pleased to present the 2025 Mid-Year Outlook from J.P. Morgan Global Research. This ...

Key Takeaways STLA recalls 250,651 U.S. vehicles due to defective side curtain airbags that may not hold pressure. Q1 2025 revenues fell 14% to EUR 35.8B, driven by shipment declines and weak pricing and product mix. Despite North American slowdowns, STLA's European market share hit 17.3% after seven new launches.Stellantis N.V. (STLA) is recalling 250,651 vehicles in the United States because of a defect in the side curtain airbags that may not be properly sealed, per the U.S. National Highway Traffic Sa ...

We are now joined by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Betts. And just as the Senate has begun voting on what's known as the big, beautiful bill. You look at the latest version of the tax bill.The big question that remains is the GOP holdouts. What kind of deal can be cut with those holdouts. And what are you and the president prepared to offer for support.Well, I'm confident that the bill is going to progress, as is over the next few hours, and it'll be on the president's desk to sign on July 4th. So the Senat ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved net sales of $222.3 million, an increase of 10.6% compared to fiscal 2024, driven by growth in every sales channel and category [22] - Gross margins increased by 60 basis points to 44.6%, primarily due to higher sales volumes, partially offset by increased tariff and freight costs [26] - Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 was $17.7 million, up 80.8% from fiscal 2024 [29] - GAAP EPS for fiscal 2025 was a loss of $0.01 compared to a loss of $0.94 in the prior year, while non-GAAP EPS was $0.76 compared to $0.32 in fiscal 2024 [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Outdoor lifestyle category net sales grew by 16.2%, driven mainly by sales in Bubba, Meet Your Maker, and BOG brands [24] - Shooting sports category net sales grew by 3.8%, primarily driven by sales in the Caldwell brand [24] - Direct-to-consumer net sales increased to $29.6 million from $29.1 million last year, representing a significant growth in DTC sales from roughly 3% to over 13% of total net sales [16][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic net sales increased by almost 10%, while international net sales grew by 20% compared to fiscal 2024 [23] - E-commerce sales grew from 32% in fiscal 2020 to 38% in fiscal 2025, indicating a shift towards online sales channels [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its reach into new categories, customers, and geographies, focusing on innovation and sustainable growth [6][7] - The strategic shift from a concentration in shooting sports to a broader outdoor lifestyle focus has seen outdoor lifestyle sales grow from 46% of net sales in FY 2020 to 57% today [15] - The company has secured 170 new patents, growing its patent portfolio by over 65%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the uncertainty in the macro environment and evolving tariff policies, which may impact consumer behavior [33] - Despite the challenges, management expressed confidence in the underlying demand for their products and the strength of their innovation pipeline [60] - The company is proactively mitigating potential risks through a disciplined, multi-pronged approach to manage the evolving tariff landscape [18][39] Other Important Information - The company is set to join the Russell 3000 Index and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index, enhancing visibility within the investment community [41] - The company ended the year with cash of $23.4 million and no debt, maintaining a strong balance sheet [29][31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on the $8 million to $10 million of fiscal 2026 demand that was pulled into Q4? - Management indicated that retailers accelerated orders due to anticipated price increases from suppliers, benefiting the company [45] Question: What are the early Q1 trends for consumer discretionary spending? - Management noted strong point-of-sale trends, indicating healthy consumer demand despite some surface-level bumps related to inventory management [48][49] Question: What drove the strength in the traditional sales channel? - The strength was attributed to a combination of load-in related factors and the traditional channel's effectiveness in launching new products [50][51] Question: What is the current M&A environment and appetite for acquisitions? - Management expressed a clean balance sheet and readiness to pursue acquisitions, particularly in the outdoor lifestyle segment, with ongoing conversations for potential deals [53][54] Question: Can you clarify the reason for the withdrawn guidance? - Management explained that the acceleration of orders led to a slower start in Q1, creating uncertainty in order flow and prompting the decision to suspend guidance [59][60] Question: How much exposure does the company have to China in terms of cost of goods? - Management indicated that while there is exposure, they have built up inventory and are prepared to shift production to mitigate tariff impacts [70][72]

[Music] On June 18th, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its most recent FOMC meeting where they left the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth straight time and gave the largely expected comments about continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The chairman mentioned particular uncertainty around the inflationary effects of tariff policy. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.we're beginning to see ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $1.2 billion for the third quarter, an increase of $211 million or 22% year-over-year [20] - Adjusted operating profit rose to $222 million, up $55 million or 33% from the previous year, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 18.8%, an increase of 150 basis points [21] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased to $5.12, up $0.97 or 23% compared to the prior year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - ABL (Acuity Brands Lighting) generated sales of $923 million, a $25 million or 3% increase year-over-year, driven by growth in independent sales and direct sales networks [21] - Acuity Intelligent Spaces (AIS) reported sales of $264 million, an increase of $188 million, with Atrius and Distech combined growing 21% and QSC growing over 20% year-over-year [25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced accelerated orders in the third quarter, attributed to strategic pricing actions in response to evolving tariff policies [5][22] - The independent sales network and direct sales showed strong growth, while corporate accounts faced declines due to timing issues with a large retailer's renovations [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on product vitality, service enhancement, and technology improvements to drive productivity and market share growth [18] - Acuity is entering new verticals, including refuel and healthcare, and is making strategic acquisitions to enhance its product offerings [110][111] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage outcomes amid uncertainties from tariff policies and geopolitical instability [17] - The expectation is that the combination of third and fourth quarter performance will meet the anticipated results for the second half of fiscal 2025 [62] Other Important Information - The company generated approximately $400 million in cash flow from operations year-to-date and has effectively allocated capital, including a 13% increase in dividends and share repurchases [27][28] - A special charge of $30 million was taken this quarter related to productivity efforts, which will yield benefits in future quarters [29][96] Q&A Session Summary Question: QSC margin performance - Management noted that QSC's margin improved significantly due to strong top-line growth and the adoption of productivity tools, with no deal accounting affecting the results [34][92] Question: Impact of accelerated orders and pricing actions - Management confirmed that there was evidence of order acceleration in both ABL and AIS, with expectations for normalized performance in the upcoming quarters [40][41] Question: Gross margin expectations for Q4 - Management indicated that while Q3 had minimal impact from tariffs, Q4 is expected to see some margin dilution due to tariff costs and pricing actions [58][60] Question: Demand environment and customer behavior - Management observed rational behavior from customers in response to pricing actions and tariff uncertainties, indicating a conservative approach to future expectations [97][99] Question: Progress on new verticals - Management highlighted strong traction in new markets such as refuel and healthcare, with ongoing efforts to enhance product offerings in these areas [110][111]

After the regular trading day gets underway, New Home Sales for May will hit the tape. Expectations are for a big cooling off to 695K seasonally adjusted, annualized units from the previous month's 12-month high of 743K. Mortgage rates remained elevated last month, within a range of 6.76-7.06%, which provides a natural headwind. On Monday, Existing Home Sales actually outperformed expectations. Fed Chair Jerome Powell spends his second of two days on Capitol Hill, today across the rotunda to testify before ...