Welcome back to Squawkbox. Joining us now, former Biden Treasury Official Natasha Sarin. She's a professor at Yale School and president and co-founder of the Budget Lab and former economic advisor uh Steven Moore.He's now with Unleash Prosperity. Stephen, you you still have um ears with people that are in charge doing all these things. What what what is your best uh guess as to to what's happening behind the scenes right now.Do you expect what Chuck Schumer has wanted all along, some type of backroom deal w ...

Let's bring in Joe Leavia, counselor to the Treasury Secretary to discuss this. Joe, uh, it's great to have you on to to kind of flesh this out a little bit. And I I guess first of all, most important I would be to get at what the drivers of this narrower deficit are and whether they're structural, whether they're durable, whether they're going to continue because I mean you hear things about obviously tariff revenue, uh pretty high capital gains tax collections and then some maybe foregone spending that ma ...

Joining us tonight is the Republican senator for Kentucky, Dr. . Ran Paul. He's the chair of the Senate Homeland Security Committee and was the only Republican to vote no on the continuing resolution.Senator Paul, thanks for joining Top Story tonight. Like I said, you did not vote for this Republican spending bill. You have said it prolongs the Biden era spending.Can you tell our viewers more about your decision and the government shutdown. >> Whenever spending bills come before the Senate, I look at what i ...

All right, we got some breaking news out of Washington DC. The Treasury Department is releasing its monthly interest statement and Megan Cassella is all over the story. She's got the details.Megan, Don, that's exactly right. This time it was another big deficit month for the US Treasury. The US running a $345 billion deficit for the month of August.That compares with about $300 billion expected among economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Now, on an adjusted basis, that accounts for standard calendar differences ...

Fiscal Deficit & Debt - The US deficit is at $2 trillion [1] - The national debt is projected to increase from $30 trillion to $50 trillion in 10 years [1] - Current deficits of 6.5% to 7% are unsustainable [2] Fiscal Policy & Solutions - Tariffs will partially offset the deficit [1] - Tax breaks should be re-evaluated and potentially eliminated [3] - Multi-year budgeting could improve fiscal management [3] - Increased tax collection is a potential solution [3] - Congress needs to actively engage in responsible fiscal policy, including line-by-line budgeting [3]

Three months ago, Ray, you said that we were about three years away from the US going broke. A lot has changed since then. The tariffs, liberation day, the markets, no spasms from that.And Moody's downgraded the US debt. They were the third of the ratings agencies to do so. How close are we now, if not 3 years away.>> Well, it really depends on how we're going to deal with this. We are at a juncture right now. If we can soon, very soon, while the economy is still good, cut the deficit to 3% of GDP, which is ...

Government Spending & Taxation - Government spending is viewed as taxation [1] - Lowering employment and evolving a different mindset inside the government are happening [1] Economic Growth & Deficit - Getting growth going is the key to lowering the deficit [2]

Tax Policy & Economic Growth - The new tax policy allows companies to immediately write off 100% of the cost of new equipment in the year of purchase, instead of depreciating it over several years [1][3][4][5] - This 100% expensing is considered a significant pro-growth component of the tax bill, incentivizing equipment purchases, boosting manufacturing, and creating jobs [4][5][11][13] - Senator Langford argues that full expensing is beneficial to the economy and businesses, especially small businesses and manufacturers, by improving their cash flow and reducing the need to borrow money for taxes [3][4][7] Deficit & Budgetary Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scores the 100% expensing as a deficit increase due to its 10-year window scoring method, which doesn't account for depreciation beyond that period [6] - However, in real terms, the policy doesn't necessarily affect the actual deficit, as the depreciation would occur regardless, either in a single year or spread out over multiple years [9] - Other tax cuts, such as those on tips and overtime, are not considered as progrowth as the full expensing policy, although they provide tax relief to specific groups [10][11][12]

Fiscal Policy & Debt - The bill is projected to add $4 trillion to the national debt [2] - The bill could lead to deficits reaching 8% of GDP, a level almost unprecedented during peacetime without external shocks [2] - Future reconciliation packages are promised to cut the deficit, but the means to achieve this, especially without raising taxes on the wealthy, are unclear [6][7] Tax Implications & Distribution - The tax breaks in the bill may negatively impact poorer, working-class Americans while benefiting the wealthy [3] - Approximately 60% of the benefits are expected to go to individuals earning over $220,000 [14] - Certain aspects of the bill, such as no tax on tips, the child tax credit, and permanent no tax on overtime, could be supported in isolation [14] Market & Economic Impact - The bond market's reaction to the bill has been surprisingly muted [8] - There is a concern that tariff policy is slowing the economy, which, combined with massive deficit spending, could put pressure on interest rates [10] - Permanent expensing and making tax cuts permanent could be attractive to businesses and spur investment [12][13]

Bill Overview & Political Landscape - The bill extends Trump's tax cuts, increases border security, and eliminates taxes on tips and overtime [5] - The bill narrowly passed the Senate with the Vice President breaking a tie vote, but faces division in the House [4] - Every House Democrat is strongly opposed to this bill, referring to it as a "GOP tax scam" [3] - The White House and Speaker Johnson insist the bill will reduce the deficit, but critics disagree [18] Financial Implications & Economic Concerns - The bill is described as a massive tax cut for wealthy Americans that will explode the deficit and increase the national debt [10] - The bill is taking from the poor to give to the rich and charging a huge amount to the credit card [13] - Economists are concerned about America's debt and long-term financial viability [13] - Foreign investors are already dumping the dollar, and there is strain in the bond markets [16] - The tax cut is so big that even the extraordinary cuts they're making a Medicaid and other programs just don't come close to it [21] - The bill is expected to result in a $300,000 tax cut for the wealthiest Americans and some corporations [22] Specific Provisions & Criticisms - The bill includes a special carveout for Alaska to soften the blow of changes to Medicaid [6] - The bill is criticized for reducing incentives for clean energy production [11] - The bill breaks some of the promises that President Trump made such as to reduce or eliminate taxes on social security [23]