Tariff Impact & Inflation - JP Morgan 认为，行业特定的 Section 232 关税可能比国家特定的关税对有效关税率产生更大的影响，预计稳定在 22% 左右 [1] - 总体而言，预计关税总成本的约 60% 将转嫁给消费者，而公司承担约 40% [2] - 关税成本可能会在今年剩余时间内增加，但明年可能会被减税的一些好处所抵消 [3] - 商品成本可能会继续上涨，但服务领域可能会出现转变，有助于明年年底通胀下降 [4][5] - 增长和通胀通常朝着相同的方向发展，这可能会使明年上半年的通胀保持在高位 [5] Monetary Policy & Labor Market - 如果明年通胀保持在高位，增长加速，即使只是在较短的时间内，可能会进一步将降息推迟到下半年，并且总体而言，降息幅度可能会低于市场预期 [7] - 劳动力市场可能存在更大的复杂情况，明年上半年如果增长略高，可能会延长劳动力市场的寿命 [8][9] - 税收减免将在很大程度上帮助消费，但如果劳动力市场总体疲软，则存在疑问 [9] - 小型企业面临的十大业务问题中，利率和融资成本排名第 10，而劳动力质量排名第 2，劳动力质量高于劳动力成本 [12] - 人口结构变化正在减缓劳动力供应，需求也在变得更加疲软 [13]

All right, let's talk about uh President Trump's economic agenda, crypto regulation, the Fed, and more. With us now, to our delight, uh House Speaker Mike Johnson. Mr.. Speaker, um thanks for joining us this morning. Good morning. Glad to be with you as always. I don't uh think we've talked since the um I'm just it's the OBB. I you know, I can't explain it every time, but I don't think we've talked to you since the OBB. I don't know whether uh you saw earlier. I I had to laugh because we had President Obama ...

Let's be honest, most people are never going to know all the details of the bill, but they they certainly will know that there's something in there about tax cuts affecting incomes and also possible health care cuts when this actually starts to work its way through to the economy. I mean, one of the things uh that's likely to happen, I mean, is we are going to see health care cuts that are going to result in people losing healthcare coverage. By some estimates, we'll have 16 million additional Americans uni ...

Tax Policy & Economic Growth - The new tax policy allows companies to immediately write off 100% of the cost of new equipment in the year of purchase, instead of depreciating it over several years [1][3][4][5] - This 100% expensing is considered a significant pro-growth component of the tax bill, incentivizing equipment purchases, boosting manufacturing, and creating jobs [4][5][11][13] - Senator Langford argues that full expensing is beneficial to the economy and businesses, especially small businesses and manufacturers, by improving their cash flow and reducing the need to borrow money for taxes [3][4][7] Deficit & Budgetary Impact - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) scores the 100% expensing as a deficit increase due to its 10-year window scoring method, which doesn't account for depreciation beyond that period [6] - However, in real terms, the policy doesn't necessarily affect the actual deficit, as the depreciation would occur regardless, either in a single year or spread out over multiple years [9] - Other tax cuts, such as those on tips and overtime, are not considered as progrowth as the full expensing policy, although they provide tax relief to specific groups [10][11][12]

Political Landscape - The GOP aims to promote Trump's new tax plan to America [1] - Trump's 2017 tax cuts were not well-received by voters [1]

Joining me now is California Democratic Congressman Robert Garcia. He is the newly minted ranking member on the House Oversight Committee. Congressman, thank you so much for joining us.Um, look, Congressman Hakee Jeff directly tied today's vote to next year's midterm elections using the term Project 2026. Do you see things the same way. I I think uh the leader is is absolutely right. I mean, first, this bill uh is horrific for the American public.And certainly, it is crazy that you would have Republicans in ...

One of the Democrats who spoke out overnight on the House floor was Congressman Brendan Bole of Pennsylvania. He's the ranking member of the budget committee. Here's a bit of what he had to say.The decision we have been entrusted by the American people to make will have ramifications for millions of our fellow Americans and indeed for our country for decades to come. There may not be a lot of people able to watch at 4:05 in the morning, but in just a few short hours, some of them on Medicaid will be waking ...

Fiscal Policy & Debt - The bill is projected to add $4 trillion to the national debt [2] - The bill could lead to deficits reaching 8% of GDP, a level almost unprecedented during peacetime without external shocks [2] - Future reconciliation packages are promised to cut the deficit, but the means to achieve this, especially without raising taxes on the wealthy, are unclear [6][7] Tax Implications & Distribution - The tax breaks in the bill may negatively impact poorer, working-class Americans while benefiting the wealthy [3] - Approximately 60% of the benefits are expected to go to individuals earning over $220,000 [14] - Certain aspects of the bill, such as no tax on tips, the child tax credit, and permanent no tax on overtime, could be supported in isolation [14] Market & Economic Impact - The bond market's reaction to the bill has been surprisingly muted [8] - There is a concern that tariff policy is slowing the economy, which, combined with massive deficit spending, could put pressure on interest rates [10] - Permanent expensing and making tax cuts permanent could be attractive to businesses and spur investment [12][13]

Joining us now straight from the House floor, Democratic Congressman Morgan McGarvey of Kentucky. He's a member of the House Budget Committee. You've already had a long night and I know that we're sort of on the clock for whenever Hakee Jeff stops speaking and this actual vote goes on, but take us inside the mood on the floor right now among Democrats and if there's any conversation with Republicans between the parties. Democrats are still fighting and obviously we're frustrated. This matters to us. This is ...

we would amend the house product. Uh I encourage them to amend it as uh lightly as possible. They went uh a little further than uh than than many of us would have preferred.But we have the product now. We are going to try to to to to uh answer all those concerns and get this bill delivered on time as we expected and hope from the very beginning. So a lot of work ahead, but that's that's the job.So we'll get it done. All procedural and legislative options are on the table. Do you expect the entire caucus to ...