The onset of Q3 earnings season is just around the corner, and it looks like it will be a good one. Not only is there an outlook for S&P 500 NYSEARCA: SPY earnings growth and sequential acceleration to follow, but the forecasts are also improving, providing a lift for market spirits. As of early October, the consensus for the year is for earnings to grow by 8.0%, an 80-basis-point improvement from the lows of the revision cycle, and the forecast for the following year is also improving. Get SPDR S&P 500 ETF ...

Let's talk about all of this with Emily Roland. She is co-chief investment strategist at Manu Life. John Hancock Investments.Sorry about your Red Sox. I know it was tough. It's tough.All right. Um Emily, outside of baseball, it's one historical stat. Okay.But I like it. It's better than it markets usually fall 7.7%. Is the direction of this market up.I mean, Brian, nothing can stop this market right now. It's all been about momentum. It's been about technicals. It's been about embracing the pocks of the mar ...

Home Builders Industry - Evercore has downgraded the home builders sector, indicating that margins must bottom before stocks can rerate, which is not expected to happen in the next several months [1] - D.R. Horton (DHI) shares fell by 5%, reflecting a broader negative sentiment in the home builders group [1] Milrose Properties - Milrose Properties was spun off from Lennar (LAR) in February and operates as a land bank, separating high-risk, high-reward growth from asset-heavy, slow-growth cash flow operations [3][4] - The company holds thousands of acres of land across 10 states and offers a 9% dividend yield, with plans to distribute all earnings and funds from operations as dividends [4][5] - Milrose has a unique external management structure by Kennedy Lewis, which may impose a valuation cap but allows for consistent cash flow through land options for builders like Lennar [6][5] Kimberly Clark - Kimberly Clark, known for brands like Kleenex and Huggies, is trading at a 52-week low with a 4.2% dividend yield and a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 [8][10] - The company has divested its international family care and professional business, which analysts believe has not been fully accounted for in earnings projections [9] - JP Morgan has set a price target of $144 for Kimberly Clark, suggesting potential for earnings growth of 3-6% in the future, with possible upward revisions from analysts [10][11]

Core Insights - Nike has returned to revenue growth but continues to face profit pressures due to restructuring efforts [1][7] - The company commands a 16% share of the sportswear market, maintaining its dominance [2] - Nike's marketing strategy, which includes a $1.2 billion demand creation expense, plays a crucial role in its brand visibility and consumer engagement [4] Company Strengths - Nike's ability to design products for both athletes and regular consumers is a core competency [3] - The brand's global recognition and differentiation support its pricing power, allowing for consistent gross margins above 40% [5][8] Financial Performance - Nike's net income fell by 31% in the first quarter, with profits of $727 million, significantly lower than three years prior [9] - The company experienced a 1% sales increase in Q1, ending a five-quarter decline [7] Long-term Outlook - Historical performance shows a total return of 2,750% over the past 30 years, outperforming the S&P 500 [10] - Future earnings growth is expected to be less robust, indicating that substantial long-term returns may not be achievable [12]

Group 1 - The quarterly reports from Pepsi and Delta Airlines, among others, will contribute to the September-quarter earnings tally for the S&P 500 index [1] - Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to increase by +5.4% year-over-year, with revenues up by +6.1%, marking the lowest earnings growth since Q3 2023 if actual growth aligns with expectations [2][8] - Positive revisions in earnings estimates have been noted for Q3 and Q4, with 7 of the 16 Zacks sectors seeing increased estimates for Q4 [3][5][7] Group 2 - Pepsi is expected to report earnings of $2.27 per share on revenues of $23.88 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -1.7% in earnings and an increase of +2.4% in revenues [12] - Delta Airlines is projected to report earnings of $1.60 per share on revenues of $15.93 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of +6.7% in earnings and +1.6% in revenues [15] - Year-to-date, Pepsi shares are down -6.1%, while Delta shares have decreased by -5.2%, both lagging behind broader market gains [13][16] Group 3 - Among the 19 S&P 500 members that reported results for fiscal quarters ending in August, total earnings increased by +11.9% year-over-year, with 73.7% beating EPS estimates [17] - The overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 index shows expected EPS growth rates of $258.12 for 2025 and $290.98 for 2026 [25]

Market Overview - The S&P 500 has reached its 30th record close, driven by prospects for lower interest rates and a strong second quarter earnings season [1][2] - Initial earnings growth estimates for the quarter were around 5% year-over-year, but actual growth was nearly double that [2] - Tariff fears are subsiding, and the recent passage of a significant bill is expected to positively impact earnings and stock prices [2] Economic Conditions - Concerns remain regarding the government shutdown and its potential impact on the economy, although past shutdowns have not significantly affected equity markets [4][5] - The labor market is showing signs of softening, but it is not viewed as a major concern at this time [5] Company Insights - **Levi Strauss**: The company has been added to a value dividend strategy due to its attractive fundamental valuation. It has successfully navigated tariff challenges by diversifying operations and focusing on product lines [6][7] - **Valero Energy**: As a downstream refinery, Valero is less affected by crude oil prices and has benefited from favorable crack spreads. The closure of a refinery in California due to regulatory costs is expected to improve future earnings [8][9][10] - **United Health**: The stock has shown strong momentum, with a five-day winning streak. Analysts are becoming more optimistic about the company following federal investigations, and its recent confirmation in the CMS star program is expected to positively impact revenues and profits [10][12] Market Sentiment - There is a belief that high valuations do not preclude further market advances, with a focus on earnings being crucial for future performance [13][14] - The third quarter earnings are anticipated to show a year-over-year growth rate of about 7%, which could help maintain market momentum [15] - The market is beginning to see a broadening of leadership beyond the top-performing companies [15][16] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is not expected to make significant moves in the near term, as the economy remains strong and inflation is relatively tame [17][18] - Companies are starting to lay off employees as a response to tariffs, indicating a shift in labor market dynamics [18]

Right now, we're seeing a market that continues to hit highs even as we enter a shutdown. We entered a shutdown yesterday without any clear end to it in sight. Is this a non-event for the market. It may be an event for the economy.We'll talk a bit about that some more, but is this just officially a non-event. >> Um, history shows that government shutdowns are indeed a non-event both for the economy and for the markets. Now in the short term there may be some effects on things like uh maybe a rise in jobless ...

Group 1 - Evercore ISI downgraded Allstate Corp. from Outperform to In Line, setting a price target of $233.00 due to a more balanced risk-reward following strong stock performance this year [1] - Analysts noted that earnings forecasts showed limited differentiation, with upside potential reduced to approximately 2.5% compared to over 4% previously [1] - Margin normalization is expected in 2026 and 2027, with lower loss ratios being offset by weaker expense ratios, which limits the scope for positive estimate revisions [1] Group 2 - Allstate remains inexpensive compared to historical levels, rival Progressive, and the equal-weighted S&P, but slower earnings growth over the next two years limits rerating potential [2] - The firm highlighted that Allstate is not under-earning on investment income as it had been in 2018-2019 [2]

Earnings are growing at a rapid pace and companies are becoming more valuable, yet some people are scratching their head on why stocks are going up.Just ridiculous. ...

Market Overview & Outlook - Equity market experienced a phenomenal recovery, with low stocks up 38% since Liberation Day [1] - A potential 5-10% correction is possible, considering the S&P's forward multiples at approximately 22 times earnings and the 10-year Treasury yields slightly above 4% [2] - The market is expected to see a rolling rotation, with profit-taking from the "Magnificent Seven" benefiting small-cap, value, and international stocks [3] Earnings & Revenue Performance - Second-quarter revenues increased by 6% year-over-year, and earnings increased by 12% year-over-year, both exceeding expectations [4] - Third-quarter revenues are projected to increase by approximately 6-7%, with earnings expected to show solid double-digit growth [4] - Federated Hermes is reevaluating and increasing its earnings estimates for the remainder of the current year and the following year [5] Economic Indicators & GDP - The U S GDP estimate for the next year is 28%, while the blue-chip consensus is 15% [6] International Markets - International stocks are considered attractive due to valuations being 40% cheaper than domestic stocks, compared to a typical discount of 20% [8] - The dividend yield on international stocks is approximately 29%, significantly higher than the S&P's 12% [8] - A weak dollar and accommodative foreign central banks are expected to facilitate stronger economic and earnings growth in international markets [9] - The company maintains an overweight position in international assets, viewing them as a favorable subcategory [10]