It is impossible to trust many government economic data points.Job growth, inflation, and others are all manipulated or inaccurate.Insane problem! https://t.co/SimKILfSIo ...

America’s Economic Data Disaster is Worse Than We Thought https://t.co/luMn6RotRG ...

Investors didn't get the dovish Fed they were hoping for, and that means the economic data, such as tomorrow's jobs report, loom larger than ever https://t.co/5otpYq0fTS ...

The VIX volatility index falling below 15 for the first time since February. For more, let's bring in Mandy Shu, head of derivatives market intelligence for SIBO Global Markets. Mandy, it's always great to see you. Great to be here.It's not just the VIX. I mean, volatility across asset classes, bond volatility is also very low. What does this tell you.Yeah, to me, I think it's a sign that what we're seeing in the markets is very much fundamentally driven, right. The fact that equities keep making new all-ti ...

Joel, just start with you on the tariff back and forth with the EU. I guess what's the advice while this plays out. I I think hold on to your seats because this this back and forth that we've been dealing with uh is unfortunately just part of the norm.Now, we do think we're going to end up with baseline tariffs of around 15%. Uh but Kelly, until we get there, these negotiations, it's going to create some volatility in the markets. It's going to create a little bit of anxiety.Uh and I think there is risk her ...

The unbearable slightness of aggregate economic data. https://t.co/DFUADyjl6E ...

Market Overview & Strategy - The market deserves the benefit of the doubt, favoring growth sectors like technology, communication services, and industrials [1] - Economic data suggests the economy is cooling but not collapsing, with solid retail sales and declining initial job claims [2] - Earning estimates for the market continue to move higher, supporting a positive underlying trend [2] - The market is warming up to a 30-year rate floating around 5%, with focus on the velocity of the move [3] Hedging & Portfolio Allocation - Gold remains a diversifier in portfolios, performing well when stocks and bonds decline [4] - The firm is more focused on the equity side, seeing more upside overall in the market [5] - International equities have been moved to neutral, but the firm maintains a US bias, favoring US large caps and growth sectors [6][7] - International equities experienced mean reversion after underperforming since the 1990s last year [6]

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

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