as the best performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. With a strong week in the books, markets now turn their attention to the July CPI report coming out on Tuesday. Can the numbers derail the recent rally.Let's bring in Jack Stewart. He's the lead portfolio strategist at Natixis. Jack, great to have you with us.What are your expectations. Do we actually start seeing inflation from tariffs show up. >> You know I think if you look at the most recent prints that we've had, we're seeing signs of it starting t ...

You can of course argue with the Edelman numbers[1] for any given jurisdiction. For example, I am skeptical about their stats for Nigeria and Kenya.However, their numbers do track both (a) the GDP figures[2] and (b) the visible improvement on the ground in places like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, and China.In general, the big picture is that the former first world is now mostly the descending world. While much of the former third world is now the ascending world. There are some exceptions, but that’s the ...

- [Narrator] The US economy is facing a make or break moment. - And our country's becoming very rich. - [Narrator] Key economic data is painting a murky picture.Inflation has so far defied the worst of economists' expectations, and the US consumer remains strong, but pockets of weakness in the labor market and slower growth are raising red flags. - I think most economists expected this summer to really be that period where, you know, you begin to see the effects, and I think we're now like we're right at th ...

I don't know if you noticed this axe, but people are talking about the QDP the second quarter print which was amazing for GDP. You were talking about it a bunch Jamath on the socials. He keeps referencing the first half.So he's trying to blend those two together I think because of the the tariff differences or you know maybe to to smooth it out as he said. What's your take on this. The GDP boomed in you know 3% which is pretty great.the the problem. No, the problem that Jerome Powell has is that he's trying ...

to see you. Yeah. Andrew.>> Me time. Thanks, Becky. Meantime, the state of the economy, the accuracy of data and the future of the fed, they are all the big topics of conversation right here at the Aspen Economic Strategy Group forum that's taking place.And last night I sat down with former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Here's what she had to say about what's going on. >> I think that perhaps the most recent data strengthens the case for some rate cut going forward.Of course, the markets ha ...

Group 1: Inflation and Policy Response - The core focus of July's policy is on "anti-involution," with multiple departments addressing the phenomenon of market "involution" [2][11] - The expected inflation rates for July are projected at -3.1% for PPI and 0% for CPI, indicating weak price performance despite rising commodity prices [2][11] - The increase in commodity prices is driven by expectations of supply contraction, but excess supply in downstream sectors limits the transmission of price increases from upstream to downstream [2][24] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Industrial production remains resilient, with July's industrial value added expected to be around 6.4%, despite a decline in new orders [4][61] - The PMI production index indicates that production is still expanding, with notable increases in sectors like general equipment and black metal rolling [4][55] - The supply situation is characterized by a divergence, where production is better than demand, contrary to market expectations of significant supply contraction [4][48] Group 3: Demand Structure - Demand is showing signs of differentiation, with weak goods demand but stronger service demand, leading to a projected slight decline in actual GDP to 4.9% for July [6][73] - Export performance is expected to exceed expectations in July due to the residual effects of "export grabbing," but there are concerns about a potential decline in exports in September [6][73] - The consumer market is experiencing a potential decline in goods consumption due to a "subsidy gap" in the "old-for-new" program, while service consumption is expected to improve due to increased travel activity [8][89] Group 4: Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed, with real estate and manufacturing investments likely to decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments may see improvement [8][102] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support infrastructure investment, with asphalt construction rates showing an upward trend [8][102] - The manufacturing sector faces downward pressure due to the nearing end of equipment renewal demand, while real estate investment is likely to continue weakening [8][102] Group 5: Economic Outlook - The main logic of economic operation in July revolves around "price increases," but the sustainability of these increases is relatively weak due to supply-side production increases and weak demand [9][112] - The overall economic indicators suggest a nominal GDP growth of 3.9% and an actual GDP growth of 4.9% for July, reflecting the current economic conditions [9][112]

If China spent another 1trn yuan on rural pensions, it would increase GDP by roughly 1.2trn, one expert says. But is the government willing to make changes? https://t.co/DkbYESzZO9 ...

July 30, 2025 02:22 PM GMT US Economics | North America 2Q GDP: The economy is cooling Headline US GDP rose by 3.0% q/q saar in 2Q, an improvement from the 0.5% decline in 1Q. Volatility in trade flows artificially suppressed growth in 1Q and, in our view, artificially boosted growth in 2Q. We suggest looking under the hood for signals about where the economy is... Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: GDP and private final demand 1.6 3.0 3.1 2.4 -0.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.4 2.9 1.9 1.2 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 ...

On this episode of the Everybody's Business podcast, @krogoff joins @svaneksmith and @chafkin to give his take on the latest GDP numbers and why President Donald Trump's policies can be compared to a game of "4D chess" https://t.co/i51n7zR9iH https://t.co/cHehqB2dkF ...

Group 1: Industrial Production Trends - The industrial production shows signs of seasonal weakness, but infrastructure construction is experiencing a slight recovery. The blast furnace operating rate and apparent consumption have both increased year-on-year, with a rise of +1.1 and +0.5 percentage points to 2.2% and -0.3% respectively [2][6] - The social inventory of steel has seen a rebound [2] - In the textile sector, operating rates are higher than the same period last year, while the polyester filament and automotive sectors have seen a decline in operating rates [14][20] Group 2: Cement and Construction Industry - Cement production and demand are recovering, with grinding operating rates increasing significantly by +6.0 percentage points to -0.2% year-on-year. Cement shipment rates have also improved by +0.8 percentage points to -2.2% [25][29] - The cement inventory ratio has slightly decreased by -0.5 percentage points to -0.2% [32] Group 3: Glass and Asphalt Production - Glass consumption has decreased, with production slightly rebounding but still down by -7.7% year-on-year. Apparent consumption has also fallen by -5.0 percentage points to 8.7% [37][41] - Asphalt operating rates have increased year-on-year, up by +2.5 percentage points to 8.0% [37] Group 4: Real Estate and Demand Trends - The transaction volume of commercial housing has declined, with a year-on-year decrease of -13.6 percentage points to -19.6% in 30 major cities. The largest drop is observed in third-tier cities, with a decline of -44.0 percentage points to -31.5% [49][50] - National railway and highway freight volumes have also decreased, with year-on-year declines of -0.5 percentage points to 6.5% and -0.8 percentage points to 2.8% respectively [60][64] Group 5: Export and Shipping Trends - The shipping prices continue to decline, with the CCFI composite index dropping by -2.3% week-on-week. The Southeast Asia route has seen a significant price drop of -3.9% [89][90] - The BDI average price has also decreased by -3.1% [89] Group 6: Price Trends in Agriculture and Industry - Agricultural product prices are showing divergence, with pork and fruit prices falling by -0.3% and -0.2% respectively, while vegetable and egg prices have increased by +0.6% and +3.6% [101][105] - The industrial product prices have generally declined, with the Nanhua Industrial Price Index dropping by -1.4% [113][114]