Market Analysis - There were no net new retail buyers entering the market this cycle [1] - The market was driven by the same few participants and excessive leverage introduced via the 'perp dex meta' [1] - The 'perp dex meta' was bound to unwind eventually [1]

Market Analysis - Leverage is hindering the cryptocurrency bull market, while spot holding is considered a more sustainable approach [1] - $125 billion (1250 亿) in leveraged positions have been liquidated this year [2] Potential Impact - The market is experiencing thin liquidity due to excessive leverage [2] - Market crashes are exacerbated by leverage-induced cascades [2] - Selling pressure is increased by liquidations of leveraged positions [2] - The total cryptocurrency market capitalization could potentially reach $5-$6 trillion (5-6 万亿) if capital were allocated to spot assets instead of leveraged positions [2]

Trading Strategy & Risk Management - The report highlights the contrast between high-leverage and moderate-leverage trading in the ETH market [1] - High-leverage trading, exemplified by @machibigbrother, resulted in over $15 million in losses [1] - Moderate-leverage trading, exemplified by machismallbrother.eth, yielded over $8.5 million in profits [1] - The report suggests caution against high-leverage gambling trades [1] Market Participants - machismallbrother.eth and @machibigbrother both hold long positions on ETH [1]

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts predict Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 within 6 to 12 months, supported by recent market corrections and comparisons to gold [1][4]. Market Correction and Deleveraging - The crypto market has corrected approximately 20% from recent highs, with the deleveraging phase in perpetual futures now largely over [2]. - The ratio of open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures to market capitalization has normalized, indicating a stabilization in the market [2]. ETF Redemptions and Market Sentiment - Recent ETF redemptions were modest compared to strong inflows earlier in October, suggesting a resilient market [3]. - Concerns regarding the $120 million Balancer exploit briefly affected sentiment but did not lead to lasting structural stress [3]. Price Target Justification - JPMorgan's $170,000 target for Bitcoin is based on its volatility relative to gold, with the Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio dropping below 2.0 [4]. - To align with private-sector gold investment of approximately $6.2 trillion, Bitcoin's market cap of $2.1 trillion would need to increase by about 67% [4]. Institutional Interest and Market Outlook - The recent correction has improved Bitcoin's long-term setup, making volatility-adjusted returns appear more favorable [5]. - Bitcoin is viewed as undervalued relative to gold, with a potential strong recovery phase anticipated in the next six months [5].

Bitcoin is headed for what could be its worst week since early March, with few signs that investors are getting ready to buy the dip after a rout that erased about $300 billion of digital-asset market value. Most Read from Bloomberg The original cryptocurrency has lost 6.2% so far this week, a period in which it dipped below $100,000 for the first time since June. Strategists now point to a range of indicators flashing warning signs for Bitcoin and the broader market. It all adds up to a spectacular rev ...

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Market Overview - Risk appetite has weakened, impacting the crypto market with a market value of digital assets around $3.45 trillion and a Fear and Greed Index at 20, alongside liquidations exceeding $2 billion in a single day [1] - Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since June, while Ethereum dropped below $3,100, indicating a broader trend of deleveraging in the market [3] Liquidity and Positioning - Stressed positioning has altered the mix of liquidity providers, slowing the pace of spread tightening, which means rebounds often rely on fresh cash rather than mechanical squeezes [2] - The environment of patience in policy communication from the Federal Reserve has diminished the appeal of long-duration exposures, leading to tighter inventory limits among dealers [4] Market Dynamics - When both growth stocks and crypto decline simultaneously, hedges tend to migrate into listed instruments first, followed by cash selling as liquidity decreases, increasing the risk of price breaks during transitions between time zones [5] - The structure of the market has turned stress into liquidations, with open interest decreasing as long positions hit margin limits, leading to forced selling and wider spreads [6] Stablecoin Activity - Stablecoin flows mirrored market trends, with a slowdown in creations and an increase in redemptions, resulting in fewer spot bids to absorb forced sales, indicating a reduction of leverage in the system [7]

Core Insights - Carl Icahn's net worth has decreased from approximately $17.5 billion to around $4.8 billion, marking a nearly 75% decline due to allegations from Hindenburg Research regarding inflated valuations and unsustainable dividends [1][8] - Icahn Enterprises has lost about 80% of its market value since the short-selling attack in May 2023, leading to significant financial challenges for the company [6][8] Financial Performance - Icahn Enterprises reported a net income of $287 million in the last quarter, a significant increase compared to the previous year, driven by gains in CVR Energy [14] - Despite recent losses, Icahn pointed to a rebound in third-quarter earnings as one of the company's best performances [13] Management and Succession - Succession planning within Icahn Enterprises has become uncertain, with key personnel changes and a major loss in a position with Bausch Health exceeding $700 million [10][11] - Brett Icahn, the founder's son, rejoined the firm in 2020, but recent investment strategies have faced challenges [10] Strategic Focus - Icahn has shifted his focus towards addressing the influence of major index fund managers like BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, which he believes undermines shareholder activism [16][17] - He is drafting a white paper aimed at Congress to propose restrictions on the voting power of these firms [17] Personal Insights - Despite health challenges, Icahn remains committed to his work and has expressed a belief that his activism strengthens capitalism [5][18] - He continues to engage in personal interests, such as betting on NFL games, while maintaining a focus on investment reviews [4]

Bitcoin dropped below $100,000. The fear and greed index is flashing extreme fear and over a billion dollars in leverage positions were just vaporized in one of the largest liquidation cascades of the year. Yet, if you look at the headlines, the news has never been better.The Fed is cutting rates and ending quantitative tightening. Major crypto legislation has been signed into law and a wave of altcoin ETFs are waiting for the green light. This has created a two-faced market defined by a massive divergence ...

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