people expected some sort of blowoff top this year. You have these massive positive factors, the Bitcoin ETFs, but the reality is you have a lot of uncertainty in the market right now. Bitcoin is is kind of the the perfect liquidity fire alarm and it soaks it up.If there's too much, it soaks it up and it goes up a lot. And by the way, when there's not enough, it's also more sensitive than gold. It goes down more.We're getting closer to what I think is going to be a trigger event that's going to lead to the ...

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🚨UPDATE: CRYPTO CRASH DRIVEN BY US LIQUIDITY, NOT FUNDAMENTALS: RAOUL PALThe $250B crypto market wipeout is macro-driven, @RaoulGMI says.He argues US dollar liquidity shortages are the real cause.No evidence points to a crypto-specific breakdown. https://t.co/ED1h3wLvrfBSCN (@BSCNews):🚨JUST IN: BITCOIN HITS ONE-YEAR LOW AS WARSH NAMED NEXT FED CHAIRBitcoin $BTC briefly fell below 74,550, its lowest level in a year.The asset later rebounded toward the 75,500 level.Moves came as the US dollar strengthened sha ...

Remember the last time the Government shut down? Yes, the market did exactly this. It's all about liquidity still and the TGA is still trapped until this finally resolves. Meanwhile expect more ugliness.The beatings shall continue until morale improves. ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has experienced a decline of 6.53%, trading at $78,719.63, continuing a downward trend from the previous session [1] - On Friday, Bitcoin reached a low of $81,104, marking its lowest point since November 21 [1] - Ether has also fallen by 11.76%, trading at $2,387.77 [4] Federal Reserve Influence - Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has been appointed as the next Fed chair, raising concerns among investors about potential tightening of cash in the financial system [1] - Warsh advocates for a smaller Fed balance sheet, which could negatively impact cryptocurrencies that have benefited from a larger balance sheet and liquidity in the markets [2] Market Sentiment and Trends - The current market environment has seen cryptocurrencies struggling for direction, particularly as they lag behind rallies in gold and stocks [4] - Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, noted that the Fed's "bloated balance sheet" and stringent bank regulations have trapped liquidity on Wall Street, contributing to asset bubbles in various sectors, including cryptocurrencies [3] - The overall sentiment indicates a possibility of further selling in the coming days, as recent price adjustments have reminded investors of inherent risks [4]

Core Insights - The recent selloff in gold and silver highlights the importance of liquidity rather than just market direction or valuation [1][4] - An estimated $7.4 trillion in combined market value was erased from gold and silver due to a sharp pullback [2] - Gold dropped 9% from its peak of $5,598, while silver fell 27% from its peak of $121, indicating a significant contraction in global liquidity [3] Market Dynamics - The selloff was not driven by fundamental shocks, as inflation data and policy expectations remained stable [4] - The assumption that defensive assets would maintain liquidity under stress proved to be incorrect [5] - The crowded ownership of gold and silver created an illusion of safety, leading to accelerated selling when volatility surged [6] Asset Behavior - The selloff was characterized as mechanical rather than emotional, with silver experiencing a more significant decline than gold [7] - Silver's market is thinner and more aggressive in positioning, leading to amplified movements during liquidity tightness [8]

Core Insights - The October 10 flash crash in cryptocurrency markets was attributed to a macro shock combined with high leverage and reduced liquidity, rather than issues within Binance's trading systems [1] - Global markets were already under pressure from trade-war headlines, which contributed to the vulnerability of crypto markets [1] Market Conditions - At the time of the crash, open interest in bitcoin futures and options exceeded $100 billion, creating a scenario for forced deleveraging as prices began to decline [2] - The selloff led to a self-reinforcing cycle where market makers activated automated risk controls, further reducing liquidity in order books [3] Impact on Markets - The U.S. equity markets experienced a loss of approximately $1.5 trillion on the same day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their largest one-day declines in six months [4] - Binance reported that around $150 billion in systemic liquidations occurred across global markets during the crash [4] Blockchain and Transaction Issues - Ethereum gas fees surged above 100 gwei, causing blockchain congestion that slowed transfers and limited arbitrage opportunities, which exacerbated price gaps and fragmented liquidity [5] Binance-Specific Incidents - Binance acknowledged two specific incidents during the crash but clarified that these did not cause the broader market movement. The first incident involved a slowdown in its internal asset-transfer system, affecting transfers between accounts [6] - The second incident was related to temporary index deviations for certain assets, which occurred after most liquidations had already taken place, attributed to thin liquidity and delayed rebalancing [7] Compensation and Methodology Changes - Binance implemented changes to its methodology and compensated affected users with over $328 million, launching additional support programs to stabilize impacted participants [8] - Approximately 75% of the day's liquidations occurred before the index deviations, indicating that the initial macro shock was the main driver of the market movement [8]

Group 1 - Gold reached a new all-time high while Bitcoin fell to its lowest level since November, highlighting a significant divergence between the two assets [1] - Bitcoin was trading at $83,926 after a 7% drop in 24 hours, and it has decreased by 20% over the past year [1] - Bitcoin has been described as digital gold due to its finite supply and has risen over 150% relative to the US dollar in the past five years [3] Group 2 - Bitcoin is generally more volatile than gold, with multiple double-digit drawdowns, and has rarely acted as a safe haven asset [2] - The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is infrequent, with Bitcoin often behaving like other volatile assets, particularly tech stocks [4] - The divergence in performance between gold and Bitcoin is attributed to different investor focuses, with gold traders concerned about long-term macro imbalances and Bitcoin buyers being more liquidity-sensitive [5][6] Group 3 - Bitcoin experienced a significant crash in October, following a peak of $126,080, leading to a $19 billion wave of liquidations that severely impacted its price [7] - Since the crash, Bitcoin has struggled to regain its value, trading mostly below the $100,000 mark [7]

#Bitcoin has taken all of the important liquidity levels.It doesn't NEED to drop beneath the low at $80K to be having enough liquidity to turn around.This is a great area for a potential turn of events, what does need to happen next?It needs to break above $87K as then, we'll be back in the range and $100K is next. ...

Market Overview - Bitcoin remained stable at $83,873, increasing by 0.2% on the day, while gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with gold dropping nearly 9% to $4,877 per ounce and silver plunging 28% to $82 per ounce [1] - The CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index surged to 46.02, the highest since March 2020, and the Cboe Silver ETF Volatility Index peaked at 123.03, marking a record high since its launch in 2011 [2] Interest Rate Expectations - The recent market movements indicate that traders have rapidly adjusted their expectations regarding interest rates and liquidity, which typically impacts precious metals negatively [3] - The selloff in precious metals coincided with President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which has implications for monetary policy [3][4] Cryptocurrency Sentiment - Bitcoin's trading range on Friday was between approximately $82,000 and $84,000, following a sharp decline from $88,000 to nearly $81,000 [5] - Market sentiment among Bitcoin users is mixed, with a 57.5% probability of Bitcoin rising to $100,000, while skepticism remains high as indicated by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which dropped to 16, the lowest level since the beginning of the year [6][7]