vitalik makes the [great] case that democracy could not function without privacyI'd go further and say that markets can not function without privacymarkets, like democracies, need secret ballots — private intent, public outcomeas an example, consider the idea of copytradingif one person with size (or authority) makes a trade to express their view of the market, others copy the trade (with varying size)so the market ends up representing not the aggregated view of individuals but the authority of fewer source ...

the reason gold is going up violently is not because of some extremely rare eventit is because of increasing reflexivity within an increasingly connected world causing self reinforcing beliefsthis is the new norm, I can not believe people don't get it yetgoing forward all narratives will be violently aggressively but short livedthe idea of a cycle is dead, the cycle happens every single daymert | helius.dev (@0xMert_):the idea of a cycle as you know it is likely deadthe internet increased the connectivity o ...

A Reflexive Thesis on Why Privacy Is About to Take OffReflexivity is the idea that investors' beliefs shape the market, and then the market shapes the investors' beliefs.For example, people buy because they think the price will go up, but if enough people do this, the price does go up, which then makes other people buy, and on and on.This, in turn, attracts attention, which drives fundamentals, which then attract more investors.So flows lead to fundamentals, which then feed back into flows.This is a big rea ...

Market Analysis - Crypto market sees a decent pullback on CCM coins [1] - Risk/reward ratio is currently favorable [1] - A new market has emerged, but Crypto Twitter (CT) is prematurely dismissing it after its first major pullback [1] Investment Strategy - Suggests studying reflexivity, implying a potential investment strategy based on market psychology and reactions [1]

Reflexivity and connectivity are the most important concepts to understand the future of finance, markets, and crypto.Put simply, reflexivity is the idea that investors' beliefs shape the market, and the market in turn shapes the investors' beliefs.The operative word here is "belief" — meaning one's perception instead of reality or fundamentals.This concept is not new; it has existed since the beginning of time and markets. Most people intuitively understand this loop.What is new is two-fold:i) The internet ...

Financial Analysis - MSTR trades at 230% of Bitcoin NAV due to a reflexivity loop [1] - Capital is raised at a 67% premium to buy Bitcoin [1] - $21 billion raised resulted in $42 billion in holdings [1] Market Dynamics - Leveraged derivative trades outperform spot trading [1]

Fundamentals vs. NarrativesIn a highly connected system, the thing that spreads the fastest winssee: COVID, fake news, viral memesThe Internet is a highly connected system — the financial system is notThe latter has circuit breakers, markets/banks close outside business hours, and inefficiency is a featureBut crypto connects the financial system with the internet, and so makes the financial system highly connected as wellBut in a highly connected system, speed of spread dominates, so fundamentals start matt ...

Market Connectivity & Reflexivity - Crypto increases the connectivity of markets by turning information into value and vice versa [1] - Reflexivity becomes exponentially more prevalent due to increased market connectivity [1] - Prices become more detached from fundamentals, requiring constant reassessment and recorrection from market participants [1] Cycle Dynamics - The traditional concept of a cycle is likely obsolete [1] - Cycles are accelerating, potentially occurring weekly or even daily [1]

Market Dynamics - Memetic consensus around a high price target supercharges the run, leading to intense supply discipline [1] - Everyone hoards their coins, forcing buyers to be sloppy, further entrenching the idea price will keep going up [1] - Reflexivity is at its finest [1]