There's a lot of data out there, but we're missing the data that can settle an argument. We're missing the data that you'd have higher conviction on. And frankly, the government data.The other piece, it is so much more comprehensive with the private sector or the surveys, you've got to stitch together all these different data series and they often go in different directions to tell a story. You don't have a long time series often, so it's really hard to think about the business cycle. So you're just you jus ...

Group 1 - The current data landscape lacks comprehensive and reliable information, particularly from government sources, which is essential for making informed decisions [1][2][3] - There is a significant challenge in understanding the labor market dynamics, particularly regarding job creation and the unemployment rate, which are influenced by factors such as immigration and workforce aging [4][5][6] - The Federal Reserve faces a blind spot due to the absence of accurate unemployment data, which complicates their ability to assess and manage economic conditions effectively [7][8] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is limited in its effectiveness, primarily relying on interest rates, which disproportionately affect financially constrained households and businesses [9][10] - The current economic environment presents a complex interplay of factors, with the Fed's restrictive policies being just one element influencing the broader economic landscape [11][12]

Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with some indicators suggesting conditions near recession levels [1][3] - Employment growth appears to be close to zero, potentially stabilizing at pre-shutdown levels [5][6] - Job openings and hiring are weak and potentially weakening, as indicated by Indeed numbers [6] - Layoff announcements, as summarized by the Challenger measure, are raising concerns [7][10] Economic Outlook - GDP is considered "doing okay" at 36%, but is distorted by front-loading effects and changes in inventories [8] - The labor market numbers are considered a more reliable measure of the economy's current state than GDP [9] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation numbers have been generally encouraging, despite the pass-through from tariffs [13][14] - The analyst remains comfortable with the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the December meeting [15] Technology Impact - There is a potential for a more significant and quicker impact from AI on the labor market than previously anticipated [11][12]

Market Overview - Pre-market trading has declined, reflecting a cautious sentiment towards AI infrastructure spending and a lack of economic data, particularly during what was expected to be Jobs Week [1] - The market has seen a downward trend over the past five days, moving away from all-time highs reached in late October [1] Employment Data - Non-farm payroll numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are unavailable due to a government shutdown, with estimates suggesting a loss of 60,000 jobs last month [2] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5%, while hourly wages are anticipated to remain steady at a year-over-year increase of 0.3% [2] - ADP reported an addition of 42,000 new jobs, which is better than BLS estimates but still indicates a weak labor market [3] - The Challenger Job Cuts report indicated 153,000 job cuts, highlighting ongoing challenges in employment [3] Interest Rate Expectations - There is a tentative expectation for a 25 basis-point interest rate cut in approximately 4.5 weeks, although market indexes may have already priced in this cut [4] - The "neutral rate" of inflation is uncertain but is believed to be higher than the optimal 2% [4] Earnings Reports - Wendy's (WEN) reported Q3 earnings of $0.24 per share, exceeding expectations by 20%, leading to a 9% increase in shares [5] - Six Flags Entertainment (FUN) posted earnings of $3.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate by 46.4%, although shares are down 2% in early trading [5] - Fluor (FLR) reported Q3 earnings of $0.68 per share, beating expectations by 54.55%, with shares up 4.6% in pre-market trading [6] - Constellation Energy (CEG) reported earnings of $3.04 per share, falling short of the anticipated $3.13, resulting in a 6.3% decline in shares [7] - Canopy Growth (CGC) shares increased by 12% despite reporting a loss of $0.01 per share, an improvement from the expected loss of $0.10 [8] Consumer Sentiment and Credit - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for November is expected to show a slight decrease to 53.0 from 53.6, remaining above the neutral threshold of 50 [9] - Consumer credit for September is projected to total $10.0 billion [9]

Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 229,000, remaining within the recent range [1] - Continuing claims are edging higher, potentially indicating future weakening in the labor market [2] - Continuing claims by federal workers surged, topping 23,000, the highest since 2019, possibly due to the shutdown and laid-off workers applying for benefits [3] - Alternative jobs reports suggest a cooling labor market, but without runaway signals in either direction [3] Employment Data - ADP preliminary data indicated an average of 14,000 weekly job gains [4] - The national report showed an increase from -29,000 to 42,000 [4] - The Chicago Fed's estimate of the unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged around 43% [4] - Challenger job cuts report indicated a gain of 153,000 [4] Indicators of Weakness - The Indeed jobs posting, while above the standard of 100, has been continuously decreasing [5] - ISM manufacturing and service employment indices both ticked up but remain below 50, subjectively categorized as weakness [5] Data Analysis & Future Outlook - The Fed is likely analyzing this data, potentially possessing more comprehensive information [6] - Good alternative data on prices is currently lacking, with plans to release some next week [6]

We are getting uh the jobless claims data from the US government despite uh the government shutdown and senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us with the data and a look at what all the alternative job numbers are telling us and a very firm conclusion about the the state of the labor market we're going to get from Steve I'm I'm told >> thanks for setting me up there Joe uh that's not going to happen I'll do the best I can uh first let me give you the jobless claims data it's gathered gathered individ ...

We are getting some numbers that are pretty important right now. We're going to be looking at the ADP private payroll data. It's just out.Steve Leeman joins us with those numbers. >> Numbers. What a what a what a thought.Fantastic. ADP saying that private payrolls grew by 42,000 in the month of October. Uh with a decent split when it comes to by sector.Goods producing up 9,000, service providing up 33,000. This is a question. Is this the new normal we have to get used to.Is a relatively lackluster number th ...

Core Insights - The lack of federal statistics, particularly on employment and unemployment, is creating uncertainty in assessing the labor market and potential recession risks [2][3][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to reduce rates is driven by concerns over a deteriorating labor market and slow job creation potentially leading to job contraction and recession [2][4] - Current recession indicators are not reliable due to significant fluctuations in labor supply and participation, complicating the interpretation of unemployment rate changes [5][6] Labor Market Analysis - There is a wealth of private sector data and surveys available, but the absence of core federal data limits confidence in labor market assessments [1][2] - The unemployment rate indicator is currently at 0.1%, well below the recession threshold of 0.5%, suggesting that the economy is not in a recession based on this metric [6] - Changes in labor supply, particularly due to immigration and labor force participation, have historically influenced unemployment rates, making it difficult to draw conclusions about recession status [5][6]

Core Insights - The job market is experiencing an increase in layoffs, particularly in white-collar sectors, with significant layoffs reported by UPS and Amazon, each announcing 14,000 job cuts [1][2] - The equilibrium in the job market has shifted, requiring only 30,000 jobs to be added monthly to maintain balance, down from 230,000 [3][5] - The decline in labor supply growth, largely due to reduced immigration, has contributed to this shift in job market dynamics [4][5] Labor Market Trends - Layoffs are rising to levels comparable to pre-pandemic times, indicating a potential increase in the unemployment rate and further weakening of the job market [2] - The current job market is characterized as a "low, higher, low fire" environment, suggesting a transition towards more layoffs and less hiring [1][2] Impact of Technology - AI is perceived as a job shifter rather than a job destroyer, with new technologies replacing specific tasks rather than entire jobs [6][7] - The impact of AI on job replacement is still modest, as businesses are primarily in the experimental phase with AI technologies [9][10] - While AI can perform certain tasks, it is unlikely to replace the human elements of jobs, such as communication and relationship building, in the short term [14]

Should we start to get concerned that we're seeing really big layoffs, especially when it comes to white collar jobs, and I'm talking about UPS and Amazon here, both 14,000 layoffs and white collar workers. >> So, we have been in a job market that economists have called low, higher, low fire for a year or two now. And I think we're starting to move into an environment that's more low, higher, some fire.So, we're starting to see layoffs tick up to where they were uh compared to prepandemic levels. And the fa ...