💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 MORGAN STANLEY SAYS THE FED WILL CUT RATES THREE TIMES THIS YEAR.HERE WE GO! 🚀 ...

India‘s central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates as inflation shows signs of bottoming out, Pimco says https://t.co/XmT1XsheZk ...

Financial markets are betting the Federal Reserve will still be “ahead of the curve” when it starts lowering borrowing costs, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett https://t.co/o7R4gPafuF ...

Market Trends - Gold is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly gain [1] - Expectations of the Federal Reserve lowering US interest rates are supporting gold prices [1] - A weaker dollar is contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] Investment Flows - Inflows into bullion-backed exchange traded funds are aiding gold prices [1]

The cynics just can't believe what's happening in this market. They're so used to finding reasons to be bearish that they're being overrun by positive events. They are genuinely baffled by the tape on this terrific day where the Dow gained 617 points, SB jumped 85% and the Nasdaq climbed 72% with all three averages closing at record highs.Can these negativists stay baffled. Will they have to commit, convert, get bullish. I don't know if they can do it, but they're going to have to if they're going they want ...

Labor Market Analysis - Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations, reaching 263,000 instead of the anticipated 212,000, potentially signaling a weakening labor market [2] - The last time initial claims were over 250,000 was in October 2024, indicating a significant period of labor market strength prior to this [2] - The labor market's potential weakening could complicate the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3] - The current labor market dynamic is described as "no higher no fire," suggesting a period of unusual stability or stagnation [10] - Concerns are raised about the accuracy of jobs data and the need for improved data collection methods [11][12][13] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation figures show a Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) of 2.5% to 2.6% [3] - The speaker suggests the Federal Reserve should consider a 0.25% rate hike if the labor market weakens and inflation remains persistent [4] - The speaker believes the current inflation is not primarily driven by tariffs but by systemic factors and rising costs in services and everyday goods [5][6][7] - The Treasury Secretary's view is mentioned, suggesting that if the Fed's data is inaccurate, more rate cuts may be warranted [11] Market Observations - There's a significant amount of money on the sidelines in T-bills [8] - The speaker, identifying as a technician, prioritizes Fibonacci analysis over fundamentals in stock market analysis [8] - Gold has broken its inflation-adjusted all-time high, signaling a potentially strong investment [14][15]

Market Performance & Fed Policy Expectations - The market has already priced in a significant amount of exuberance, with the S&P 500 up almost 10% and the NASDAQ up almost 12% following a V-shaped recovery [1] - Markets have priced in more Fed easing than is currently reflected in Fed fund futures, which could be a cause for concern [4] - The market is questioning whether it is pricing in too much Fed easing, considering inflation numbers [5] Inflation & Economic Concerns - CPI data indicates persistent goods inflation and sticky services inflation, suggesting a higher inflation paradigm than the Fed desires [3] - A weakening jobs market coupled with rising inflation creates a challenging environment for consumers already facing increased prices due to tariffs and trade war uncertainty [6] - Jobless claims have reached a four-year high, the worst since October 2021 [8] - The current Fed policy of maintaining rates may be contributing to higher prices, particularly in shelter costs, which constitute a third of the CPI [9][10] Impact of Rate Cuts & Capex - A rate-cutting cycle could weaken the dollar and provide a tailwind for the stock market [7] - Significant capital expenditure (capex) has matched the consumer's contribution to two-thirds of GDP, acting as a substantial tailwind [7] - A pullback in capex and a weakening consumer could lead to a recession [8]

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The market has fully priced in a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of the next three meetings this year, totaling a 75 basis points reduction [2] - The market may be slightly disappointed if the Fed does not cut by 50 basis points [2] - The Fed is implicitly accepting a 3% inflation rate, despite aiming for 2%, and is prioritizing jobs data, which is currently weak, as the reason for cutting rates [3] - The expectation is that the Fed funds rate will eventually be brought down to 3% with cuts in every successive meeting [4] Economic Outlook - There is very little to no risk of recession or stagflation, with a 3% GDP print expected for the current quarter, following a 33% print last quarter [3][4] - Equity markets and credit spreads, currently at 300 in the high yield market, indicate growth and negate the possibility of recession or stagflation [5] - A significant stimulus package, along with productivity gains from AI, is expected to further boost the economy [6] - One trillion is expected to be spent in data centers [7] Credit Market Opportunities - Public market spreads have tightened, and rates have come down, but new issuance provides opportunities to gain alpha [8] - Direct lending is experiencing its most prolific period, with seven deals approved through the investment committee in the last week [9] - Lower interest rates are expected to spur more transactions, refinancings, and new issue activity for private equity [10] - Asset-based lending, particularly in financing property, plant, and equipment in the AI sector, offers attractive risk-adjusted returns with 60% LTVs and potential returns in the low to mid-teens [12][13] - Private credit offers a 500 basis point incremental spread pickup compared to public credit [13]

🇺🇸 FED: Polymarket currently shows an 87% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps. https://t.co/nudirlrFhm ...

Group 1 - The investing group Reading the Markets, led by Michael Kramer, provides daily commentary and videos to help members understand market dynamics and trends [1] - The group offers education on macro trends, interest rates, and currency movements to assist members in making informed investment decisions [1] - Subscribers benefit from unprecedented access to expert analysis at a fraction of the cost compared to similar services [1] Group 2 - Michael Kramer is affiliated with Mott Capital Management but operates independently, providing his own analyses and opinions [3] - The report emphasizes that the information is for educational purposes and should not be considered as specific investment advice [3] - There is no guarantee of completeness or accuracy in the analyses provided, and past performance does not indicate future results [3]