Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Deutsche Bank's "Pennsylvania Plan" aims to address the increasing U.S. deficit by reducing reliance on foreign capital and utilizing domestic resources to finance the deficit [1][2][7] - The U.S. is facing a "twin deficit" dilemma, characterized by both fiscal deficit and trade deficit, which severely limits its sovereignty due to a negative net foreign asset position [2][3] - The "Pennsylvania Plan" proposes a historic shift in U.S. debt holders from foreign to domestic investors, focusing on two main strategies: reducing dependence on foreign buyers and increasing domestic absorption of U.S. debt [3][4] Group 2 - The first strategy involves decreasing reliance on foreign buyers, as demand for U.S. debt from foreign investors is declining due to geopolitical and economic factors [4][5] - The second strategy aims to enhance domestic absorption of U.S. debt by leveraging the strong balance sheets and cash reserves of the private sector, including regulatory exemptions and tax incentives [5][6] - If incentives do not sufficiently increase domestic absorption, mandatory measures may be implemented to require more long-term U.S. debt purchases from domestic entities [6] Group 3 - The market impact of the "Pennsylvania Plan" includes potential erosion of Federal Reserve independence and a weakening of the U.S. dollar, as the government seeks to mobilize domestic savings to buy more debt [7] - The strategy may lead to higher U.S. debt yields and increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain a steep yield curve, which could pose financial stability risks [7] - A weaker dollar could help rebalance the external deficit, which may not necessarily be a negative outcome economically [7]

Core Viewpoint - The economic policies of President Trump are projected to reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade, contrasting with analysts' expectations of record-high government debt levels [1] Group 1: Deficit Reduction Projections - The White House economic advisor, Milan, estimates that the combination of Trump's policies will lead to a deficit reduction of approximately $8.5 trillion to $11 trillion within the ten-year budget window [1] - About half of the deficit reduction, estimated between $3 trillion to $5 trillion, is expected to come from accelerated economic growth due to the forthcoming Republican tax cuts and deregulation measures [1] Group 2: Revenue Increases - Milan highlighted that the increase in tariffs under Trump is anticipated to generate an additional $3 trillion in revenue [1]

白宫首席经济学家表示，美国总统特朗普的经济政策将在未来十年内削减多达11万亿美元的美国财政赤 字。这一预测与分析师的看法截然不同，分析师认为未来几年政府债务将达到纪录新高。"我们测算， 总体而言，在十年预算窗口期内，总统政策组合将导致赤字减少约8.5万亿至11万亿美元，"白宫经济顾 问委员会主席Stephen Miran周三在电话会议中向记者表示，"这些数字非常庞大。"(新浪财经) ...

金十数据6月25日讯，美国银行的Adarsh Sinha在一份报告中称，自特朗普4月份宣布全面征收关税以 来，利率差不再是美元走势的重要驱动因素。美元与利差脱钩反映了美国的结构性风险溢价。其驱动因 素包括：美国关税推高通胀并削弱经济增长的前景，美国经济已达例外主义峰值，以及财政赤字风险增 加。Sinha说，然而，利率差可能会重新成为推动美元的重要因素，特别是如果美联储比预期提前实施 更多降息措施的话。 美银分析师：利率差不再是美元走势的主要驱动因素 ...

白宫经济顾问委员会主席Stephen Miran：特朗普的政策将在10年内削减8.5万亿至11万亿美元的赤字。 ...

白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰表示，特朗普的政策将在十年内削减预算赤字8.5万亿至11万亿美元。 ...

白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰：特朗普的政策将在十年内削减预算赤字8.5万亿至11万亿美元。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：降息，然后赤字将减少，经济将飙升。 ...

美国商务部长卢特尼克：利率和赤字将缩减，经济将腾飞。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，债王比尔·格罗斯向美债多头发出警告，同时为股市投资者带来好消息。这位债券 市场传奇人物警告称，由于财政赤字膨胀和美元走弱共同推高通胀，10年期美国国债收益率将难以跌破 4.25%。 另一方面，格罗斯认为，即使国债市场表现不佳或经济增长乏力，人工智能时代的强大动力仍将推动股 市继续攀升。 "我建议对股票采取'小牛市'策略，对债券保持'小熊市'立场，"这位太平洋投资管理公司联合创始人兼前 首席投资官周二在X平台上发文表示，"股市由AI主导，仍预示着1-2%的经济增长。" 格罗斯的债券预测基于历史趋势，认为收益率没有理由从当前水平大幅下降。他指出，10年期收益率通 常比消费者价格通胀高出约1.75个百分点。目前10年期收益率在4.3%左右徘徊。 美国股市最近几周出现反弹，从4月初因关税引发的抛售中恢复。当时特朗普总统对全球贸易伙伴实施 全面关税，随后又暂缓执行。 4月初，在关税动荡期间，格罗斯曾敦促抄底者保持观望，称投资者应避免试图"接飞刀"。当时他表 示，特朗普不会放弃其惩罚性关税立场。 不过，他在当前预测中补充说明，认为"目前两种情况都不会出现戏剧性变化"。 标普500指数2025年迄今上涨 ...