Market Technicals & Supply/Demand - The underperformance was largely driven by technical factors, including uncertainty around tax exemption and pulled-forward supply [1] - Supply wasn't met by enough buyers due to questions around tariffs and concerns around federal spending [2] - A recovery of the technical sell-off has been observed recently [3] - Supply tends to dampen a bit in the fourth quarter, which is constructive for yields [11] Federal Funding & State Budgets - Reduced federal funding is expected under the current administration, impacting state budgets [3] - Medicaid accounts for approximately 60% of state revenues from the federal government, making it a key area of impact [4] - States have limited options: cut coverage or make difficult budget decisions [5] California's Fiscal Situation - California's revenues are more than 50% higher than pre-COVID levels, indicating a spending problem rather than a revenue problem [7] - California is dipping into its reserves despite 20+% equity market gains, which is concerning [7] - A credit downgrade for California is possible as early as this summer [9] - A downgrade would be a notch downgrade from A to single-A, still very strong [8] Investment Strategy - Investments favor local geos and public schools financed by property taxes due to their reliability [9] - The industry expects to achieve the year of carry for 2025 [11]

Market Breadth & Concentration - S&P 500 market breadth reached a historic low, indicating extreme market concentration [2][3] - A 4-day streak showed market cap weighted index outperforming the equal weight index by over 0.5% each day, an unprecedented event [4] - The cap weighted index has outperformed the equal weighted index by at least 2.5% for two consecutive months, a trend not seen since 1999 [5] - Across most sectors, cap-weighted versions are outperforming equal-weighted versions, highlighting the dominance of mega-cap stocks [9] Impact of Government Shutdown - Government shutdown is creating uncertainty, driving investors towards mega-cap stocks as defensive plays [6][7] - The gap between cap-weighted and equal-weighted indices widened in the last six weeks due to the government shutdown [7] Consumer & Sector Performance - Consumer discretionary sector is up 1% this month, primarily driven by Tesla and Amazon; excluding these, the sector is down an average of 3% [9] - 75% of stocks in the consumer discretionary sector are down, reflecting consumer concerns and reduced spending [9] Potential Reversal & Future Outlook - Expectation of a reversion to the mean between equal-weighted and market-cap-weighted S&P 500 [8] - Anticipation of a "boomerang effect" in consumer spending once the government reopens, favoring consumer-leveraged stocks [10] - The benefits of AI are expected to accrue to smaller firms in the future [6]

U.S. Economy Could Take $14 Billion Hit From Government Shutdown, CBO Sayshttps://t.co/q0VpLbQLXD https://t.co/fUBWDbgIV6 ...

And joining me now is Democratic Congressman from North Carolina, Don Davis. He's also a member of the House Agriculture Committee. Thank you so much, Congressman, for being here. So, some 1.4% million people in your state of North Carolina could see their SNAP benefits run dry by November 1st. What's your message to those people in your state who are now scared, frankly, that they might not have basic necessities? >> The message is, and it should be loud and clear, it's time to get the govern government up ...

RT BSCN (@BSCNews)🚨XRP ETF DELAYED?!The SEC has paused its review of $XRP ETFs due to a government shutdown. Here’s what’s really happening👇https://t.co/ISATSm2qAz ...

Looking ahead to the week ahead. Lots of tech earnings come Wednesday and Thursday. Big meeting between the US and Chinese leader coming up on Thursday, too.Sandwiched in between somewhere, a Federal Reserve decision that we're all taking for granted make the case just an assumption. They cut interest rates again and it's easy sailing, except you and I both know it's different that committee. Mike, how difficult will it be for the Chairman Powell, to communicate anything beyond the October decision.Oh, it's ...

on again offagain fight with Canada after a television ad got under his skin. First, he called off trade talks with Canada earlier this week because of the ad from Ontario's government using a 1987 speech from Republican President Ronald Reagan on the dangers of tariffs and protectionism. Last night, Trump posted on social media that he planned to hike tariffs on imports of Canadian goods by an extra 10% because the ad wasn't pulled off the air immediately and ran Friday during the first game of baseball's ...

SNAP Program Concerns - Millions of Americans face potential loss of SNAP benefits due to the government shutdown, causing families to seek alternatives [1] - Majority of SNAP recipients are children, followed by older adults and people with disabilities, including veterans and youth aging out of foster care [3] - Main reasons for SNAP enrollment include job loss, wage reduction, or caring for a family member, with most people on SNAP for 6 to 24 months depending on the economy [3] - One in eight Americans relies on SNAP, highlighting its critical role in food security [9] Funding and Potential Solutions - Congress has provided USDA with the authority to issue funding to prevent millions from losing food [1] - USDA was aware of the deadline to move funds forward to avoid benefit delays [5] - Contingency funding, Section 32 funds, and credit corporation funding are available resources [7][8] - Senate Republicans are discussing a bill to prevent the loss of food aid, but the Secretary of Agriculture could act more quickly by reallocating funds [8] Impact and Challenges - Families are struggling to afford rent, medicine, and car insurance, leading to food insecurity [11] - Food banks are working extra hours to address increased need, but they were created as an emergency mechanism, not a long-term solution [9][10] - SNAP recipients often allocate 70% to 80% of their limited income to housing [11]

They have gutted our programs. They have they have, like you said, dehumanized employees. What are we going back to, right.It's broken. And so, at some point, someone has to stop the bleeding, but I I'm a firm believer that you can hold more than one truth at a time. Yeah, we need to get paid.And being out here, I think people don't necessarily understand we can't do GoFundMes. It is against the law. We can't go get another job.That is against the law. Um, and so there are there's no unemployment. You got t ...

Tonight, the major military escalation. The largest aircraft carrier in the US Navy ordered to move towards South America as President Trump ramps up the pressure on Venezuela. A massive display of firepower, including thousands of sailors, dozens of aircrafts, several destroyers, and a submarine, all heading to the Caribbean, where overnight the US military struck another boat allegedly carrying drugs and cartel members. Is this all to deter drug trafficking? The deadly crane collapse in Massachusetts. Two ...