Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The former World Bank president suggests the Fed's interest rates are too high and need to be cut, advocating for a remaking of their models to welcome growth [1] - The analysis indicates that current Fed models inherently limit growth, hindering wage growth and manufacturing job creation [1][9] - The report mentions that Europe is running at very slow growth, practically a recession all the time [1] Fiscal Policy & Debt - The report argues against raising taxes, suggesting extending current tax rates to avoid a tax increase and promote growth [2][3] - The analysis claims that financial markets are reacting positively to the bill because it gives stability in the tax code [10] - The report acknowledges the US government debt is a big problem [6] - The report claims that the additional $33 trillion (3300 billion) in debt is based on a static model that doesn't account for growth impact [5][7] Political Context - The report suggests that Fed chair Jay Powell's comments on tariffs were influenced by an anti-Trump sentiment in Europe [1] - The report claims that the CBO models and joint tax committee models were all put in by Biden [3] - The report claims that all of Washington DC is complicit in making the government bigger and bigger [10]

Welcome back. The Republican domestic policy bill now heads to the House as the GOP races against a clock of their own making to try and get an approved final version on President Trump's desk by July 4th to sign into law. Speaker Mike Johnson said the Senate made more changes than he would have liked, but remains publicly optimistic.We knew the Senate would amend the House product. Uh I encouraged them to amend it as uh lightly as possible. They went uh a little further than uh than than many of us would h ...

It is day 163 of the second Trump administration and after a marathon voting session, the Senate narrowly passed the president's sweeping budget bill. The vote was 51 to 50 with Vice President J. Dance casting the break the tiebreaking vote because three Republicans, can you guess who they were? Susan Collins, Ran Paul, and Tom Tillis voted no. In the end, Lisa Marowski of Alaska, a very vocal critic of several provisions of this bill. She voted yes, but she said it was an agonizing decision. Our own Ryan N ...

Legislation Overview - The bill under discussion has undergone significant changes in the Senate, with concerns raised about members not having adequate time to review the alterations [3][4] - The House Republicans are reportedly rushing to meet a July 4th deadline to satisfy Donald Trump's desire for a symbolic signing, leading to expedited hearings without sufficient review time [15] - The process is criticized as being driven by Trump's influence, with House Republicans allegedly being pressured to vote in favor of the bill [6] Potential Impacts - Approximately 17 million Americans are at risk of losing their healthcare coverage due to Medicaid and Affordable Care Act cuts [9][10] - Around 45 million individuals may lose SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits because of the cuts included in the legislation [11] - Changes to student loan repayment programs are expected, potentially affecting individuals currently repaying their student loans [12] Political Dynamics - Some Freedom Caucus members and other Republicans are expressing opposition to the bill due to the Senate's changes [7] - There is skepticism about Republicans' stated opposition, with a history of members ultimately voting in favor of bills despite initial resistance [8] - The cuts are perceived as subsidizing tax cuts that primarily benefit the top 1% of the country [12] Social Implications - Reduced SNAP benefits could lead to children experiencing hunger, impacting their ability to concentrate and behave in school [18][22][23] - Poverty affects both urban and rural areas, with a significant portion of the impoverished population being white [19][20][21]

Legislation & Policy - The Senate passed a bill with a 51-50 vote, using budget reconciliation to bypass the 60-vote threshold [1] - Budget reconciliation requires the bill not to increase the deficit outside a 10-year window [1] - The bill extends tax cuts from 2017, which previously expired to comply with the 10-year window [2] - Concerns arise as the bill cuts taxes more than it cuts spending, potentially violating budget reconciliation rules [2] Financial Implications & Accounting - The bill's math relies on a 2025 baseline, when 2017 tax cuts are still in effect [3] - Republicans claim the bill will reduce the deficit by $57 billion over 10 years through tax cuts and Medicaid reforms [3] - Critics argue that the bill uses "fake math and accounting gimmicks" to conceal its true cost [4]

Healthcare & Social Programs Impact - The bill is projected to negatively impact healthcare coverage for approximately 72 million Americans relying on Medicaid [3][10] - Food assistance will be reduced for over 40 million Americans dependent on SNAP [3] - Veterans' access to healthcare may be compromised due to the closure of rural hospitals [11][12] - Planned Parenthood and other vital services are facing cuts [7] Political & Fiscal Implications - The bill utilizes an accounting gimmick to obscure the cost of extending 2017 tax cuts, effectively lowering the sticker price by $3.8 trillion [16] - The reconciliation process was used to make sweeping policy changes beyond budgetary matters [18] - The bill is expected to balloon the deficit by trillions of dollars, potentially leading to increased interest rates [7][18][19] - Public disapproval of the bill is significant, with a two-to-one opposition [13][23] Legislative Process & Transparency - The bill was drafted and revised until the last minute, with lawmakers receiving drafts with red lines as late as 4 a m [8][9] - Concerns exist that even those who voted for the bill may not fully understand its contents [8]

Bill Overview & Impact - Senate Republicans passed a bill facing dismal polling and internal opposition [1] - The bill cuts Medicaid by $1 trillion and risks 118 million people losing health insurance [2] - The bill extends tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans and increases funding for deportations [2] - The bill could lead to a seismic shift in the nation's fiscal trajectory and raise the risk of a debt crisis [3] Political Dynamics & Opposition - Only 29% support the bill in one poll, with even Fox News showing approval at 38% [4][5] - Elon Musk threatened to fund primary challenges against Republicans who vote for the bill [5] - House conservatives are publicly stating they don't like what the Senate did because it doesn't cut enough [23] Senate Approval Process - Lisa Murkowski secured provisions to shield Alaska from the bill's consequences in exchange for her vote [9] - Murkowski acknowledged the bill's devastating consequences for 49 other states [10] House Outlook - House Republican leaders aim to vote on the Senate version of the bill quickly [20] - Some House conservatives may initially oppose the bill but are expected to eventually support it [24][25] - The President wants the House to take up the Senate version of the bill [26] Underlying Motives - The bill is primarily aimed at making the 2017 tax cuts for the wealthy permanent [29]

On this vote, the yays are 50, the nays are 50. The Senate being evenly divided, the vice president votes in the affirmative. The bill as amended is passed.We're here on Capitol Hill where the Senate just passed President Trump's reconciliation package on a 51-50 vote with Vice President JD Vance casting the tiebreaker. The plan combines $4.5% trillion in tax cuts with $1.2% trillion in spending cuts. Senate Republicans were broadly in agreement about the main pillars of the bill, including when it came to ...

Tyler how likely doesn't look done that the senators can get this vote through in the early hours of this morning. Yeah. Hey, Dani.Good morning. Well, they would certainly like to because they've been there since 9 a. m.Eastern yesterday. But the thing is, Senate Majority Leader John Thune at the moment still does not have the votes. And we're still watching closely the same eight Republican holdouts that we've been discussing at this point for weeks.And the issue is, is that they broadly do agree about the ...

Hammy Baldwin of Wisconsin taking a break from voterama. Senator Baldwin, are there any Republicans that are going to vote no this evening. The It remains to be seen.And if you can believe it, I believe they are still writing portions of this bill because they are discovering based on the massive input from constituents across the country that this bill is deeply unpopular. Turns out that people don't like uh bills that cut 17 million people off of their health care. And people don't like the idea of taking ...