Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is weaker than headline unemployment suggests due to sluggish hiring and declining labor supply, potentially influenced by immigration policies [1][2] - Businesses are not firing, but hiring is slow, contributing to the weakness in the labor market [1][2] - BLS data may require updates in practices, technology, and funding to maintain confidence in the numbers [4][5][9] - Alternative data sources and trends over three, six, or nine months should be considered to assess the labor market, rather than over-relying on any single data print [10][11] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Prospects for future GDP growth have slowed from initial estimates of 225%-250% to 125%-150%, impacting treasury yields [17] - The ten-year treasury yield is influenced by supply and demand factors, future growth prospects, and deficits, with concerns about the amount of treasuries being sold [18][19] - The market anticipates a potential rate cut in September, but it is not a certainty due to conflicting factors such as above 2% inflation and sluggish growth [20][21][22] - The Fed faces a conflict between its dual mandates of employment and inflation, potentially requiring a serious look at cutting rates by 25 basis points in September [24][25] Fed Independence and Treasury Market - There is a strong culture of independence at the Fed, and the onus is on the chair to uphold that ethic [14] - Concerns exist regarding the weakening dollar and upward pressure on rates due to factors like firing a statistician and the rest of the world looking elsewhere [16] - The US is running a $2 trillion deficit, adding to concerns about the supply and demand of treasuries [18]

Market Risks - US labor market weakness could push the dollar and Treasuries lower [1] - Changes to the Federal Reserve Board and Bureau of Labor Statistics pose risks [1] Potential Impact - Dollar and Treasuries could experience a decline [1]

A $2 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation data could be the first area of Treasuries that would crack if the Bureau of Labor Statistics is politicized: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/LTQZI5sXd0 ...

Market Risk - The politicization of the Bureau of Labor Statistics could potentially destabilize the $2 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation data [1]

USDT Market Activity & Infrastructure - USDT monthly transaction volume reaches $1 trillion [1] - Market underestimates USDT's utility, viewing it solely for trading [1] - $127 billion in treasuries back USDT [1] Asian Expansion - Kaia ATMs are operational in Korea [1] - Grab enables top-ups for 112 million users [1] - Line Next integration is underway [1]

Treasuries rallied after a report on US jobs showed weaker-than-expected payroll growth, prompting traders to boost bets that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates. https://t.co/tMyUbdtcri ...

🤑 NEW: Tether posted $4.96B in Q2 profit, driven by yield on $127B in U.S. Treasuries and gains from its Bitcoin and Gold treasuries. https://t.co/JdcRV5cYoZ ...

Tether's Financial Performance - Tether's year-to-date (YTD) $USD₮ issuance totals $20 billion [1] - Tether holds $127 billion in U S Treasuries [1] - Tether's Q2 2025 profit reached $4 9 billion [1]

Financial Performance - Tether 今年迄今已发行 200 亿美元的新 USD₮ [1] - Tether 持有 1270 亿美元的美国国债 [1] - Tether 在 2025 年第二季度的净利润为 49 亿美元 [1] Company Highlights - Tether 最新认证报告显示以上数据 [1]

Bond traders cut bets on Treasuries over the past week, as markets brace for a Fed meeting that's expected to shed light on how aggressively it will lower interest rates in coming months https://t.co/sqKToIt9X1 ...