Citadel Securities经济学家Nohshad Shah在最新专栏文章中表示，美联储可能在可预见的未来保持利率不 变，随着沃什被提名为下任美联储主席，这一前景变得更加明确。在美国经济展现韧性、通胀风险重新 抬头的背景下，过去一年大幅下挫的美元可能迎来喘息时机。 Nohshad Shah指出，在宽松的金融条件、放松的货币政策以及即将到来的大规模财政刺激(OBBA法案) 等几乎前所未有的政策组合下，美国今年的名义GDP可能处于5-6%区间。达拉斯联储将四季度GDP增 速追踪在2.49%，纽约联储的实时预测为2.74%，这还是在政府长时间关门的情况下实现的。 在上周的会议上，美联储承认了更强劲的经济增长现实，并表示风险平衡已从就业目标转移。FOMC声 明将经济活动描述从12月的"温和"上调至"稳健"扩张，失业率显示出"稳定迹象"。主席鲍威尔在新闻发 布会上传递的信号表明，委员会普遍认为政策利率已不再处于限制性区域，在去年实施75个基点的"保 险性降息"后，利率已接近大多数机构对中性利率的估计值(约3.25%)。 美元在过去一年已下跌约11%，跌幅可观。但Shah认为，随着美联储可能在未来数月保持观望、美 ...

Core Viewpoint - Markets in Japan and South Korea have experienced significant surges as investors eagerly await the results from AMD, indicating a strong interest in technology sector performance and its impact on regional markets [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Japanese market has shown a notable increase, reflecting positive investor sentiment and potential growth opportunities in the region [1] - South Korean markets have also surged, suggesting a broader trend of optimism among investors in Asia [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Investors are particularly focused on AMD's upcoming results, which are anticipated to provide insights into the technology sector's health and future prospects [1] - The anticipation surrounding AMD's performance highlights the importance of tech companies in driving market trends and investor confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street perceives Trump's Federal Reserve nominee as a hawkish figure regarding inflation and the strength of the dollar [1] Group 1 - The nominee is expected to adopt a strict stance on inflation control, which may lead to tighter monetary policy [1] - Analysts believe that the nominee's approach could strengthen the U.S. dollar, impacting global markets [1] - The potential for increased interest rates under the nominee's influence may affect borrowing costs and economic growth [1]

Plus, Fed meeting and big tech earnings ...

Group 1: Dollar Performance and Economic Indicators - The dollar is under pressure due to the Fed's liquidity boost, with $40 billion monthly purchases of T-bills starting in mid-December [1] - The dollar is expected to weaken as the FOMC is projected to cut interest rates by approximately -50 basis points in 2026, while the BOJ is anticipated to raise rates by +25 basis points [2] - US weekly initial unemployment claims fell by -9,000 to a 6-week low of 198,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected increase to 215,000 [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Central Bank Policies - The dollar index climbed to a 6-week high, up by +0.36%, supported by better-than-expected US economic news and hawkish comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic [4] - The euro fell to a 6-week low, down by -0.36%, as the dollar's strength weighed on it, despite Eurozone industrial production rising by +0.7% month-over-month [5] - The yen is under pressure due to a stronger dollar and dovish signals from the BOJ, with the December PPI easing to +2.4% year-on-year, the smallest increase in 20 months [6][7] Group 3: Precious Metals Market Dynamics - Gold and silver prices are sharply lower, with March silver down -1.36%, influenced by the dollar's strength and easing geopolitical risks in Iran [10][11] - Demand for precious metals is supported by concerns over the Fed's independence and potential influence from the Trump administration, despite Trump stating he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Powell [12] - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC reserves increasing by +30,000 ounces to 74.15 million troy ounces in December, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of increases [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in jobless claims in the U.S., highlighting the implications for the economy and the labor market [1][2]. Group 1: Jobless Claims Data - Jobless claims in the U.S. have shown fluctuations, indicating varying levels of unemployment and economic stability [1]. - The latest report indicates a decrease in jobless claims, suggesting a strengthening labor market [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The decline in jobless claims may lead to increased consumer confidence and spending, which could positively impact economic growth [1]. - Analysts suggest that sustained low jobless claims could influence Federal Reserve policy decisions regarding interest rates [2].

Core Insights - The dollar is experiencing a slight increase as traders analyze recent U.S. retail sales and producer prices data while anticipating further economic indicators [1][2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Retail sales in November rose by 0.6%, surpassing expectations, indicating strong consumer spending as the year-end approaches [2] - Producer prices increased by 0.2% month-on-month in November, raising the annual rate to 3.0% from 2.8% in October, suggesting that inflation has not yet peaked [2] - Analysts from Danske Bank note that the retail sales data reflects robust consumer spending, while the PPI data indicates potential for faster increases in consumer prices [2]

Core Insights - Involvement of politicians in central-bank decisions leads to increased unpredictability in inflation, the dollar, and the stock market [1] Group 1 - Political interference in central banking can disrupt traditional economic indicators and market behaviors [1] - The relationship between monetary policy and economic stability may be compromised due to political agendas [1] - Investors may face heightened uncertainty as a result of this political involvement, impacting their decision-making processes [1]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) increased by +0.23%, supported by a decline in the yen, which reached a 1.5-year low against the dollar [1] - US October new home sales fell by -0.1% month-over-month to 737,000, which was better than the expected 715,000 [3] - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem indicated that the US economy is robust and anticipates above-potential growth, suggesting that an accommodative stance from the Fed is unnecessary [3] Group 2 - US December core consumer prices remained unchanged from November at +2.6% year-over-year, which was below the expected +2.7% [2][3] - The market is pricing in a 3% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 27-28 [4] - The Fed has started purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills since mid-December, which is contributing to dollar pressure [5] Group 3 - Concerns regarding Fed independence have emerged after Fed Chair Powell faced threats of criminal charges related to his testimony, which may impact dollar strength [2] - President Trump is expected to appoint a dovish Fed Chair, with National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett being the likely candidate, which could be bearish for the dollar [5]

Core Insights - The dollar has continued to strengthen, adding to its gains from earlier in the year, indicating a positive trend for the currency [1] Group 1 - The dollar's early gains this year suggest a robust performance in the foreign exchange market [1] - However, two significant risks are emerging that could impact the dollar's trajectory moving forward [1]