Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in exchange rates, particularly focusing on the strengthening of the RMB against the USD and the implications of these changes in the context of geopolitical and economic shifts [1][3]. Group 1: Three Confusions Regarding RMB Exchange Rate - The first confusion is that despite advancements in China's manufacturing technology and productivity, the actual RMB exchange rate has depreciated significantly since 2022, contradicting the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis (BSH) [3][7]. - The second confusion highlights the historical divergence between the nominal effective exchange rate and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB, which has reached unprecedented levels since 2022 [8][18]. - The third confusion points out that the depreciation of the RMB against the USD has been less than that of other currencies from China's trading partners, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting exchange rates [10][21]. Group 2: Analysis of the First Confusion - The limitations of the BSH are discussed, emphasizing that the hypothesis does not account for prolonged demand deficiencies, which can prevent price increases despite productivity gains [11][16]. - The article argues that the BSH primarily focuses on supply-side factors while neglecting the financial perspective, which can also influence the actual exchange rate [16][18]. Group 3: Analysis of the Second Confusion - The divergence between the nominal and actual effective exchange rates reflects a significant widening of the inflation gap between China and its trading partners, with China's inflation remaining low while that of major partners has increased [18][19]. - The article notes that China's inflation has been declining, with CPI growth averaging 0.2% from 2023 to 2024, contrasting sharply with the higher inflation rates in the US and other trading partners [19][20]. Group 4: Analysis of the Third Confusion - The RMB's depreciation against the USD has been less severe compared to the depreciation of currencies from other trading partners, suggesting that the current account has provided some support to the RMB [21][23]. - The article highlights that from January 2021 to April 2025, the RMB depreciated by 12% against the USD, while other currencies like the Japanese Yen and Australian Dollar experienced much larger depreciations [22][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook for RMB Exchange Rate - In the short term, there may be room for the RMB to appreciate against the USD, especially if the USD faces downward pressure due to fiscal and trade deficits [5][43]. - The article suggests that if the accumulated current account surplus is converted into RMB more rapidly, it could further support the RMB's appreciation [44][50]. - The analysis indicates that the RMB may have upward potential by the end of the year, driven by a weaker USD and supportive domestic factors [51][53].

Core Viewpoint - Recent U.S. economic data has shown weakness, raising concerns about economic growth and putting pressure on the dollar [1][3] Economic Data Impact - Initial jobless claims increased more than expected, and the U.S. GDP for the first quarter showed contraction, contributing to the decline in the Bloomberg Dollar Index and Treasury yields [1] - The U.S. International Trade Court's decision to halt several broad tariff measures has added to the uncertainty surrounding trade policies [1][4] Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Circuit Court's temporary stay on the Trade Court's ruling has led to skepticism among investors regarding the stability of U.S. trade policies [1][3] - Analysts suggest that despite the court's ruling, the Trump administration may still find ways to implement its economic policies through alternative measures [3][4] Market Reactions - The dollar initially strengthened during the Asian trading session due to the trade court's ruling but quickly reversed gains in the London session, declining against all G10 currencies [3] - Goldman Sachs analysts believe the ruling represents only a temporary setback for Trump's trade agenda, which could be offset by other tax measures [4] Options Market Sentiment - Options traders maintain a bearish outlook on the dollar for the next year, although confidence has slightly weakened [5] - The nominal value of bearish options positions exceeds that of bullish positions by approximately $13 billion, indicating a preference for downside protection [8] Currency Trends - The sentiment towards currencies such as the euro, Swiss franc, Norwegian krone, and New Zealand dollar against the dollar remains strong among options traders [8]

智通财经5月29日电，美元兑避险货币瑞郎上涨0.4%，美元兑日元上涨0.4%，此前美国一法院阻止特朗 普关税生效。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar continues to decline in the Asian trading session, while the British pound reaches its highest level in over three years [1] Currency Movements - The US dollar index (DXY) has decreased by 0.37%, now standing at 98.73 [1] - The USD/CAD pair has fallen to its lowest point since October 9 [1] - The EUR/USD has increased by nearly 0.5%, currently at 1.4156 [1] - The GBP/USD has risen by 0.4%, marking the highest level since February 2022 [1]

美元兑其他货币继续下跌，澳元涨0.6%。 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar continues its downward trend against other currencies, indicating potential shifts in currency markets [1] - The Australian dollar has appreciated by 0.6% against the US dollar during the day, reflecting a strengthening of the Australian currency [1]

这是2024年7月29日在美国首都华盛顿拍摄的美国财政部大楼。新华社记者胡友松摄 新华财经北京5月19日电（卜晓明）30年期美国国债收益率19日盘中突破5%。美国彭博新闻社当天评论，"卖出美国"再现。 彭博社认为，国际信用评级机构穆迪下调美国主权信用评级，这一举动推升30年期美国国债收益率并拉低美国股指期货。与此同时，10年期美债收益率19日 盘中突破4.5%。 穆迪16日宣布决定将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，缘于美国政府债务和利息支付比例增加。穆迪同时将美国主权信用评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳 定"。 法国《星期日论坛报》17日援引欧洲中央银行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德的话报道，美元对欧元汇率近期下跌反映出"金融市场某些部分对美国政策抱有不确定 性并失去信心"。 英国媒体4月29日报道，英国中央银行正在评估美元近期走软可能引发的影响，暗示美元已失去避险货币地位。 围绕穆迪下调美国主权信用评级一事，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特回应："穆迪是落后指标，每个人都如此看待信用评级机构。" （文章来源：新华社） 穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后，美国在三大主要国际信用评级机构中的主权信用评级均失去了Aaa最高等级。另两 ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all rose in the week of May 16, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.7, up 0.17% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.36, up 0.2%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 91.42, up 0.31% [1][2] - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.2103, appreciating by 358 points or 0.49% for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.2098, appreciating by 304 points or 0.42% [5] - The RMB's middle rate against the USD was reported at 7.1938, with a cumulative increase of 157 points or 0.22% for the week [5] Market Analysis - Analysts noted that the recent US-China trade talks led to significant consensus, providing support for the RMB exchange rate, while the middle rate remained relatively stable [5] - The RMB's depreciation pressure has significantly eased, and further appreciation will depend on future policy guidance [6] - Changes in exporters' foreign exchange settlement behavior will be crucial for the RMB exchange rate, as companies have retained substantial high-interest USD deposits [6] International Credit Ratings - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to increased government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a loss of the highest rating across all three major international credit rating agencies [7] Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index for May was reported at 50.8, below expectations of 53.4 [7] - The US April PPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, slightly below the expected 2.5% [7] Financial Policies - The Chinese government has introduced new policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, focusing on venture capital, monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has revised the major asset restructuring management measures for listed companies, introducing several new regulatory frameworks [10]

冉学东 中美贸易谈判一路披荆斩棘，轻舟已过万重山。 美国政府5月12日发布行政命令称，自5月14日起，通过邮政服务从中国寄送价值不超过800美元的商品，税率将从 120%降至54%。 5月10日至11日，中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行。经过双方的共同努力，此次会谈坦诚、深入、具有建设 性，达成重要共识，取得实质性进展。这个利好对于国际金融市场而言是超预期的，市场报以积极回应，就汇率 市场而言，美元大幅升值，同时人民币也大幅升值。 5月12日当天美元指数上涨1.73%，人民币汇率上涨0.56%，5月13日截至12点人民币升值0.20%，连破几个整数关 口到了7.18525，而美元指数小幅下行0.21%。5月12日，人民币和美元联袂上涨的局面是比较少见的。 从目前权威媒体透露的信息来看，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了 共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应暂停实施 24%的反制关税。 未来还将对一些重要议题进行磋商，主要是针对暂缓的24%关税部分；二是芬太尼问题谈判问题，当然还可能针 对具体的非税壁垒、汇率水平等进 ...

消息人士：美国并不寻求在贸易协议中压低美元汇率。 ...