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人民币市场汇价(10月10日)
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-10-10 02:48
100美元 710.48人民币 100欧元 823.38人民币 100日元 4.6534人民币 100港元 91.296人民币 100英镑 947.31人民币 100澳元 467.21人民币 100新西兰元 409.5人民币 100新加坡元 548.09人民币 100瑞士法郎 883.33人民币 100加元 508.05人民币 100人民币112.88澳门元 100人民币59.247马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1139.27俄罗斯卢布 100人民币241.56南非兰特 100人民币19882韩元 100人民币51.559阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.658沙特里亚尔 100人民币4750.68匈牙利福林 100人民币51.707波兰兹罗提 100人民币90.68丹麦克朗 100人民币133.86瑞典克朗 100人民币141.35挪威克朗 100人民币587.238土耳其里拉 100人民币258.31墨西哥比索 100人民币459.87泰铢 【纠错】 【责任编辑:赵文涵】 新华社北京10月10日电 中国外汇交易中心10月10日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、 英镑、澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、 ...
人民币对美元中间价报7.1048 调升54个基点
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-10-10 01:33
中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布,2025年10月10日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为: 1美元对人民币7.1048元,1欧元对人民币8.2338元,100日元对人民币4.6534元,1港元对人民币0.91296 元,1英镑对人民币9.4731元,1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6721元,1新西兰元对人民币4.0950元,1新加坡 元对人民币5.4809元,1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8333元,1加拿大元对人民币5.0805元,人民币1元对1.1288 澳门元,人民币1元对0.59247马来西亚林吉特,人民币1元对11.3927俄罗斯卢布,人民币1元对2.4156南 非兰特,人民币1元对198.82韩元,人民币1元对0.51559阿联酋迪拉姆,人民币1元对0.52658沙特里亚 尔,人民币1元对47.5068匈牙利福林,人民币1元对0.51707波兰兹罗提,人民币1元对0.9068丹麦克朗, 人民币1元对1.3386瑞典克朗,人民币1元对1.4135挪威克朗,人民币1元对5.87238土耳其里拉,人民币1 元对2.5831墨西哥比索,人民币1元对4.5987泰铢。 (责任编辑:田云绯) 中国经济网北京10月10日 ...
外汇储备飙到3.34万亿美元,人民币却意外贬值,套利窗口来了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 05:43
Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's foreign exchange reserves to $3.34 trillion contrasts sharply with the depreciation of the RMB against the USD, raising questions about the effectiveness of reserve accumulation in stabilizing the currency [2] Group 1: Data Paradox - The growth in reserves is accompanied by concerns over structural imbalances, with the proportion of USD assets falling to 58% from a peak of 73% in 2014, while holdings in EUR, JPY, and gold have increased to 32% [2] - The opportunity cost of holding USD assets is significant, with a yield of 2.3% compared to 4.8% for 10-year US Treasury bonds, resulting in an annualized opportunity cost exceeding $15 billion [2] - The RMB depreciation is driven by three main factors: widening interest rate differentials, narrowing trade surpluses, and diverging policy expectations [2] Group 2: Arbitrage Opportunities - The onshore-offshore price gap for the RMB has widened, creating an arbitrage opportunity with a potential annualized return of 1.9% [2] - The offshore RMB liquidity has tightened, as indicated by the spike in CNH Hibor to 13.4%, the highest since 2013, increasing the cost of arbitrage [2] - The derivatives market shows a 2.1% arbitrage opportunity between NDF and DF rates, with a significant increase in foreign institutional trading volume [2] Group 3: Policy Responses - The central bank has reactivated counter-cyclical factors in the exchange rate management model, adjusting the counter-cyclical coefficient to 0.8 to limit depreciation [2] - Capital controls have been tightened, requiring banks to conduct thorough reviews of large foreign exchange transactions, particularly in technology and real estate sectors [2] - The central bank has signaled stability by emphasizing the adequacy of reserves to manage short-term fluctuations and has increased gold holdings to diversify reserve assets [2] Group 4: Underlying Contradictions - Concerns about the quality of reserves are rising, particularly regarding the liquidity risks associated with the $1.1 trillion in US Treasury bonds held by China [2] - The balance between market-driven and interventionist approaches in exchange rate formation is challenged, with a significant increase in direct interventions by the central bank [2] - The real effective exchange rate has appreciated by 23% since 2015, impacting export competitiveness and increasing import costs for key commodities [2] Group 5: Future Outlook - Short-term arbitrage opportunities are expected to narrow by Q4 2025 as the US Federal Reserve nears the end of its rate hike cycle [2] - Long-term reforms are anticipated, including optimizing reserve structures and enhancing the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate [2] - The need for a new balance in reserve management, exchange rate mechanisms, and industrial upgrades is emphasized to ensure sustainable financial security [2]
人民币对美元中间价调贬47基点报7.1102
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-10-09 01:55
在9月30日发布的《2025年上半年中国国际收支报告》中,国家外汇管理局表示,下一阶段,着力防范 化解外部冲击风险,切实维护外汇市场稳定和国际收支基本平衡。密切关注内外部经济金融形势,持续 完善跨境资金流动监测预警,保持人民币汇率弹性,加强外汇市场逆周期调节和预期管理,促进境内外 汇供求平衡。 同日,在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元表现不一。截至当日9时35分,在岸人民币对美元报 7.1334,日内贬值幅度为0.16%;离岸人民币对美元报7.1381,日内升值幅度为0.17%。 北京商报讯(记者 廖蒙)10月9日,中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布,当日银行间外汇市场人 民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1102元,相较前一交易日中间价7.1055元,调贬47基点。 ...
人民币对美元中间价报7.1102 调贬47个基点
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-10-09 01:33
中国经济网北京10月9日讯 今日,人民币对美元汇率中间价报7.1102,较前一交易日调贬47个基 点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布,2025年10月9日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为:1 美元对人民币7.1102元,1欧元对人民币8.2825元,100日元对人民币4.6648元,1港元对人民币0.91377 元,1英镑对人民币9.5477元,1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6927元,1新西兰元对人民币4.1245元,1新加坡 元对人民币5.4972元,1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8887元,1加拿大元对人民币5.1067元,人民币1元对1.1277 澳门元,人民币1元对0.59165马来西亚林吉特,人民币1元对11.4219俄罗斯卢布,人民币1元对2.4079南 非兰特,人民币1元对198.49韩元,人民币1元对0.51559阿联酋迪拉姆,人民币1元对0.52660沙特里亚 尔,人民币1元对47.2464匈牙利福林,人民币1元对0.51373波兰兹罗提,人民币1元对0.9018丹麦克朗, 人民币1元对1.3236瑞典克朗,人民币1元对1.4008挪威克朗,人民币1元对5.85725土耳其里拉,人民币1 元对2 ...
美联储降息25个点!贷款便宜了,积蓄却缩水,普通人仍被割韭菜?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 10:38
2025年9月17日美国当地时间,美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点,至4.00%-4.25%。 这是自去年12月以来,美联储时隔9个月首次调整政策利率,且此次降息完全符合市场预期。 此前,美联储主席鲍威尔在8月杰克逊霍尔央行会议上释放出偏向宽松的"转鸽"信号,叠加美国非农数据连续两个月表现不及预期。 8月CPI温和抬升,市场对本次降息的预期概率已接近100%。 美联储选择此时降息,核心动因在于美国就业市场的显著降温。 近期公布的美国8月就业数据增长几近停滞,失业金申领人数更是攀升至近四年高位,这表明就业市场降温速度可能远超此前预期。 在此背景下,降息成为防止经济进一步下滑、提振就业的重要手段。 但决策背后,美联储始终面临就业与通胀的"跷跷板"矛盾。 当前美国通胀水平仍高于2%的目标值,这也是美联储在半年多时间里迟迟未再调整利率的关键原因。 既要通过宽松政策稳定就业,又要避免通胀反弹失控,这种平衡考量贯穿了此次政策制定的全过程。 除了如期降息,本次美联储议息会议还呈现出多个值得关注的细节,这些细节直接影响市场对未来政策走向的判断。 市场原本预计此次降息可能伴随内部分歧,尤其是在特朗普呼吁更大幅度降 ...
不确定性增加,人民币或震荡前行
不确定性增加,人民币或震荡前行 日本央行宣布维持基准利率在 0.5%不变。第二,9 月美国就业数据超预期下降,增加了前 期市场对 9 月美联储降息的预期。9 月 5 日,美国劳工部公布 8 月非农就业报告显示,美国 8 月季调后非农就业人口增 2.2 万人,远低于预期 7.5 万人和前值 7.3 万人。另外,9 月 9 日 美国劳工部公布初步修订数据显示,2024 年 4 月至 2025 年 3 月美国新增就业岗位比最初统 计的少 91.1 万个,进一步显示出美国就业市场的疲软。 国内方面,8 月 31 日至 9 月 1 日,上合峰会在天津举行;9 月 3 日,在北京天安门广场 举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年大阅兵,全球 20 余位国家领 导人亲临参会。九三阅兵和上合峰会的成功举办,进一步提升了中国的国际地位,彰显了 中国综合实力的提升,在复杂的国际环境下,提升了中国资产的吸引力。 图 1 人民币三大汇率走势图 6.2000 6.4000 6.6000 6.8000 7.0000 7.2000 7.4000 7.6000 2023-02-03 2023-03-03 2023-04- ...
主题报告 | 人民币汇率波动与美联储政策预期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 13:12
Core Viewpoint - The seminar focused on the fluctuations of the Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate and the expectations of the Federal Reserve's policies, highlighting the interplay between U.S.-China economic relations and currency movements [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since April 2022, the RMB has been under pressure, depreciating from around 6.3 to below 7.3, with a stabilization around 7.3 in the second half of 2023 [4][5]. - The depreciation of the RMB post-2022 is attributed to the divergence in economic cycles and monetary policies between China and the U.S., leading to a negative interest rate differential [5][6]. - The RMB's exchange rate is not significantly deviating from its equilibrium level, with both upward and downward factors present, suggesting a need for a risk-neutral market approach [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB's Strength - The RMB's recent strength against the dollar is driven by the weakening of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, improvements in the Chinese economy, and a thawing in U.S.-China trade relations [3][9]. - Historical context shows that during Trump's first term, tariffs led to a depreciation of the RMB, but the current environment suggests a potential for appreciation due to various factors, including market sentiment and economic recovery [10][12]. - The RMB's appreciation is also supported by the Chinese government's proactive measures to mitigate external shocks and improve economic conditions [19][20]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue with two more rate cuts in 2025, with the nature of these cuts being crucial for the dollar's performance [22][24]. - The Fed's independence is under threat due to political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which could impact its policy decisions and market perceptions [25][27]. - The Fed's dual mandate of managing employment and inflation is becoming increasingly complex, with rising inflation and a weakening labor market posing challenges [26][28]. Group 4: Implications for the Dollar and Global Markets - The weakening of the dollar is influenced by Trump's policies, which disrupt traditional economic cycles and could lead to a rebalancing of global assets favoring non-U.S. assets [32][33]. - The current environment suggests that the RMB may benefit from a weaker dollar, especially if U.S.-China trade relations stabilize and economic conditions improve in China [38][39].
美联储降息引发机遇,中国三大领域受益,普通百姓财富迎来新增长
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 18:38
降息一出,美元资产没那么香了,聪明钱四处流窜,找能落脚的新地方。这波没啥悬念,地缘局势这么 乱,钱就认安全感。中国,这个时候突然成了"新宠",说是地缘稳定,资产价格不高,更关键——"一 带一路"带火了新城市,外资往实体跑,有点意思。 全球美元水漫金山,人民币对美元的汇率一夜间破7.1——9月数据还在摆着,进口原油便宜了点,A股 和港股也跟着起跳。中债登的9月报表显示,外资多买了120亿国债,比8月多出8%。黄金更夸张,现货 价飙破3700刀一盎司,年内涨幅40%,连路边小金店都多了几个问价的中年人。 中国央行也没闲着,9月净投放1950亿,缓一缓短钱紧张。回头看4月,降准0.25个点,扔出来5000亿, 企业融资压力小了点,老板们呼吸顺畅点,招工的广告又多了两页。可这种"放水",总有人问:"这钱 会不会又流回楼市、股市,最后还是没到我们手里?" 9月的纽约,天还没冷金融街上的人群像蚂蚁,围着一则消息打转——美联储把基准利率往下挪了25个 点,4.00%到4.25%之间,像是一只温吞的手,推了下牌桌。谁都明白,这不是去年12月的旧招,2025 年第一次真刀实枪的降息,连老道的基金经理都忍不住小声嘀咕,今年还要再 ...
美联储降息,中国有三重机遇,对老百姓的钱袋子有何影响?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-06 08:01
美联储在2025年9月宣布将联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%,开启了自2024年12月以来的首次降息。 市场普遍预期年内还将有两次降息,全年累计降息75个基点的试探性节奏已基本明确。这一调整正在重塑全球资本流动的轨迹,曾经主导全球金融周期的美 元潮汐,威力正显著衰减。 高息时代的美国凭借4%-5%的稳定收益,成为全球资本的"吸储池"。国际金融机构通过将美元存款利息作为底层资产,设计各类理财产品吸引闲散资金,再 将归集的资本投入高收益领域,形成层层叠加的金融杠杆。 这种模式在维持美国金融韧性的同时,也催生了巨大的市场泡沫。但随着降息周期开启,美元资产的收益吸引力持续下降,机构为规避后续收益缩水风险, 开始提前清算资产离场,全球流动性随之重新分配。 与以往不同的是,当前全球地缘环境复杂,资本更倾向于流向安全边际高的市场。中国凭借稳定的发展环境、低估的资产价格,成为国际资本的重要备选方 向。 更关键的是,中国"一带一路"倡议下的节点城市与产业布局,正引导外资向实物经济沉淀,这种结构性调整使得资本难以被短期美元潮汐轻易抽离,从根本 上削弱了美元周期的冲击力度。 1. 货币政策获得自主空间 美联储高息 ...