Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reported that in the first half of 2025, the total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, the highest for the same period in history [1][3] Group 1: Cross-Border Transactions - The cross-border income and expenditure of enterprises and individuals amounted to $7.6 trillion, with a 10.4% year-on-year growth, and the proportion of RMB in cross-border transactions reached 53% [3] - The total settlement and sale of foreign exchange by banks was $2.3 trillion, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase, the second highest for the same period historically [3] - There was a net inflow of cross-border funds amounting to $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend since the second half of last year, with a 46% quarter-on-quarter growth in Q2 [3] Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics - The foreign exchange market showed basic balance, with a settlement deficit of $25.3 billion in the first half, but monthly trends indicated fluctuations from deficit to surplus [3] - The foreign exchange income settlement rate was stable at 60%, while the foreign exchange expenditure settlement rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 65% [3] - The total trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached $21 trillion, a 10.2% year-on-year increase, with spot and derivative transactions accounting for 35% and 65% respectively [4] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Currency Stability - As of the end of June, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.3174 trillion, an increase of $115.1 billion from the end of 2024 [4] - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, appreciating by 1.9% against the USD, fluctuating between 7.15 and 7.35 [5] - The current account surplus has been steadily increasing, with direct investment inflows into China reaching $31.1 billion, a 16% year-on-year increase [5]

Core Viewpoint - The current foreign exchange market shows no significant expectations for the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, with rational and orderly trading observed [1]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level due to high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing resilience in the foreign exchange market [2]. - In the first half of the year, the RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the USD, maintaining stability within the range of 7.15 to 7.35 [3]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Activity - In the first half of the year, six new banks initiated foreign exchange business reforms, bringing the total to 22 banks involved in the reform [4]. - The trading volume in the domestic RMB foreign exchange market reached 21 trillion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [6][7]. Group 3: Cross-Border Capital Flows - From January to May, net inflows of direct investment in equity from abroad amounted to 31.1 billion USD, representing a year-on-year growth of 16% [5]. - The total scale of cross-border income and expenditure for enterprises and individuals reached 7.6 trillion USD in the first half of the year, marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [8]. Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds saw a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in the first half of the year, reversing the trend of net selling observed in the past two years [9]. - The total amount of foreign-held RMB bonds exceeded 600 billion USD, indicating a stable interest in RMB assets [9]. Group 5: Service Trade Developments - In the first half of the year, service trade income grew by 13%, with cross-border travel income increasing by 42%, while the service trade deficit decreased by 14% [10]. Group 6: Global Central Bank Trends - A recent survey indicated that 30% of global central banks plan to increase their allocation of RMB assets, reflecting a growing recognition of RMB assets as important for risk diversification and yield enhancement [11].

国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌7月22日在国新办新闻发布会上回答证券时报记者提问时表 示，经济高质量发展，对外开放稳步推进，外汇市场韧性不断增强，这三个有利因素将支持我国外汇市 场继续保持平稳运行，人民币汇率有条件在合理均衡水平上保持基本稳定。(证券时报) ...

Core Insights - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that in the first half of 2025, the scale of cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, reached a historical high for the same period [1] Group 1 - The foreign exchange market maintained stable operations, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality [1] - Cross-border trade and investment financing were active, contributing to the record levels of cross-border income and expenditure [1] - The foreign exchange market expectations remained stable, with the RMB exchange rate maintaining basic stability and continued net inflow of cross-border funds [1] Group 2 - The supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were generally balanced, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves remained stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a paradox where China's trade surplus is expanding while the Renminbi (RMB) is depreciating, raising questions about the underlying economic dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Surplus and Currency Dynamics - Since 2022, despite rapid industrial upgrades and increasing export competitiveness, China's trade surplus has reached new highs, yet the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB has declined by over 15% from Q1 2022 to Q1 2025 [3]. - According to Balassa's theory, faster productivity growth in a country's trade sector typically leads to currency appreciation, a trend observed in Japan, but this has not been the case for China [3]. Group 2: Demand Insufficiency and Market Failures - Zhang Bin attributes the continuous depreciation of the RMB since 2022 primarily to insufficient demand, which also explains the expanding trade surplus and significant net capital outflows [5]. - The insufficient demand has resulted in low inflation and weak asset price expectations, indicating a market failure characterized by price stickiness and coordination failures among market participants [5]. - Individual rational behaviors, such as reduced investment by businesses and decreased consumption by households, collectively contribute to a negative spiral of income and expenditure, exerting downward pressure on demand and asset prices, leading to depreciation of the nominal and actual effective RMB exchange rates [5]. Group 3: Recommendations for Currency Valuation - Experts, including Zhang Bin, believe the RMB is undervalued and recommend timely and sufficient counter-cyclical policies to achieve a reasonable valuation of the currency [5]. - If overcoming the demand insufficiency in the short term proves challenging, maintaining a wide fluctuation range for the RMB against the USD while firmly defending the upper and lower limits of RMB exchange rate fluctuations is advised [5].

2025年7月22日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1460，下调（人民币升值）62点； 欧元/人民币报8.3601，上调373点； 港元/人民币报0.91034，下调9.1点； 英镑/人民币报9.6449，上调427点； 澳元/人民币报4.6654，上调59点； 加元/人民币报5.2282，上调130点； 100日元/人民币报4.8514，上调259点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9124，下调525点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.2680，上调86点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59165，下调6.6点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.9580，上调270点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5868，上调151点。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US Dollar Index increased by 0.80% to close at 98.64, with a weekly high of 98.95 [1] - USD/CNY rose by 0.10% to 7.1776, while USD/CNH increased by 0.11% to 7.1802 [1] - The Chinese Yuan showed mixed performance against other currencies, with notable declines against EUR, JPY, and AUD [1] Group 2: Economic Data Focus - Key economic data releases include the US Leading Economic Index for June, expected to decline from -0.1% to -0.2% [2] - The Eurozone's manufacturing and services PMI for July are anticipated to improve, while the US manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from 52.9 to 52.5 [2][4] - The US durable goods orders for June are forecasted to decrease significantly by 10.5% after a previous increase of 16.4% [2] Group 3: Central Bank Decisions - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting, with market focus on President Lagarde's comments regarding future monetary policy [3][11] - The market anticipates that the ECB will continue to reference inflation and tariff policies in its future decisions, which could impact the Euro's value [3][11] Group 4: Currency Trends - The USD/CNY is expected to remain stable around 7.18, influenced by the performance of the US Dollar Index [9][10] - The Euro is projected to face downward pressure if the ECB signals potential rate cuts, especially with upcoming PMI data expected to show improvement [11] - The Japanese Yen is under pressure due to inflation data and impending tariffs from the US, with the USD/JPY reaching a high of 149.18 [15]

短短半年之间，人民币发生巨变——从"对美元从快要跌破7.4"到"一度升至7.16"，从"华尔街投行一 致悲观预测的7.6"到如今的"7.0不是梦"。究竟什么变了？未来汇率的潜在客观走势如何？ 本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：Irene Zhou，题图来自：AI生成 6月开始，随着中美谈判缓和，人民币就开启了一轮对美元的升值行情，这也和亚洲货币升值潮同 步，毕竟今年以来美元指数贬值幅度达到10%。 高盛也在7月初高调表示——预计美元/离岸人民币未来三个月将缓慢下探至7.1，年底前降至7.0。一 时间，"保7争6"的预测不绝于耳。 事实上，不确定性依然存在，中国出口情况、美联储降息节奏等将成为主导因素。 美元反击、欧元故事又讲不下去 了 上半年，欧元一度对美元大涨近14%，美国政策的反复和关税大棒的折腾也加剧了这种行情，带有情 绪的欧洲投资者甩卖美元资产，持有大量美元敞口的亚洲出口商开始紧急结汇，加速了美元的贬值。 由于欧元在美元指数中的占比高达近60%，这也导致美元指数节节败退，此前最低跌至96，累计贬值 幅度一度超10%。然而，近期"强欧元"的故事有点讲不下去了。 在特 ...

7月19日，在岸人民币对美元夜盘收盘报7.1758，较上一交易日夜盘收涨51个基点；离岸人民币对美元 报7.1813元，较上一交易日纽约尾盘涨31点。 7月18日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.1498，下调37.00点。 近期，人民币中间价不断释放稳定信号。多家外资行交易员和策略师表示，面对8月1日"对等"关税的不 确定性，人民币中间价的逆周期因子已经非常小，但仍存在接近200个点的调节幅度，显示了中国央行 一定的呵护意愿。但即期交易顺应了近期强美元的逻辑，下半年人民币汇率将继续受到美元指数走势的 影响。 年中，重磅发布会接踵而至。7月14日、15日，国务院新闻办举行两场新闻发布会，邀请中国人民银行 副行长邹澜、国家统计局副局长盛来运，分别介绍上半年货币信贷政策执行及金融统计数据情况、上半 年国民经济运行情况。邹澜在会上表示，当前，美元走势仍然有不确定性，但中国国内基本面持续向 好，人民币汇率保持双向浮动、基本稳定具有坚实的基础。【此前报道：】 邹澜提出，各方面对美联储的货币政策变化非常关注，近期美国经济增速有所放缓，但物价水平仍然高 于美联储的目标水平，关税政策进一步增加了美国通胀走势的不确定性，影响美联储降息 ...

智通财经7月18日电，在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1766，较上一交易日上涨30点。 ...