今日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行副行长邹澜介绍2025年上半年金 融统计数据情况，并答记者问。 / / 中国人民银行副行长邹澜 / / 央行邹澜：结构性货币政策工具将突出支持科技创新、提振消费等主线 人民银行副行长邹澜7月14日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年5月，人民银行再次推出一揽 子金融政策措施，这其中有不少结构性货币政策工具，这些结构性政策措施已经在5月底前全 部实施启动。截至5月末，科技创新和技术改造贷款签约合同金额达1.74万亿元，企业随时可 以提款使用；科技创新债券风险分担工具为股权投资机构发债融资提供增进支持。下一步，还 将发挥好货币政策工具总量和结构的双重功能，结构性货币政策工具将继续坚持聚焦重点、合 理适度、有进有退的原则，在支持金融五篇大文章的基础上，突出支持科技创新、提振消费等 主线，进一步提升对促进经济结构调整转型升级、新旧动能转换的效果。 央行：下半年中美货币政策周期错位将得到改善 中美利差趋于收窄 人民银行副行长邹澜7月14日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，市场普遍预期美联储下半年重启降 息，主要发达经济体处于降息周期，市场对美联储重启降息的预期升温，中美货币政策周期 ...

人民银行副行长邹澜7月14日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，各方面对美联储的货币政策变化非常关注， 近期美国经济增速有所放缓，但物价水平仍然高于美联储的目标水平，关税政策进一步增加了美国通胀 走势的不确定性，影响美联储降息节奏，美元指数、美债收益率波动的加大，对全球金融市场都产生了 一定的溢出效应。相比较而言，我国金融市场表现出较强韧性，运行总体平稳，影响汇率的因素是多元 的，比如经济增长、货币政策、金融市场、地缘政治、风险事件等。当前美元走势仍然有不确定性，但 中国国内基本面持续向好，人民币汇率在双向波动中保持基本稳定具有坚实基础。 ...

Core Points - As of the end of June, the national foreign exchange reserves amounted to 3.32 trillion USD [1] - The exchange rate of the RMB against the USD was 7.1586 RMB per USD at the end of June [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar presents significant implications for individuals holding USD or engaging in overseas transactions, prompting questions about the optimal timing for currency exchange and future exchange rate trends [1] Exchange Rate Status - On July 12, the RMB to USD exchange rate midpoint was reported at 7.1475, marking a continuous rise for three days and reaching the highest point since November of the previous year. The onshore rate peaked at 7.1672, while the offshore rate was 7.1697, indicating a narrow spread of only 25 basis points, reflecting stable market expectations and balanced supply and demand for USD [2] Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The recent appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors: - Weakening of the USD: The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has led to a relative weakening of the USD, indirectly supporting the appreciation of the RMB [4] - Recovery in Exports: Continuous improvement in China's export data has increased the supply of USD from foreign trade enterprises, thereby suppressing the depreciation of the RMB [5] - Stable Market Sentiment: Optimistic market expectations and reduced demand for currency exchange among investors have contributed to a balanced supply and demand, stabilizing the exchange rate [6] Historical Comparison and Future Predictions - The current exchange rate is similar to the fluctuations seen at the end of last year, which ranged between 7.10 and 7.18. However, considering the earlier drop below 7.24, the current rate represents a recovery from previous lows. For those engaged in foreign exchange transactions or foreign trade, the current rate is more favorable compared to the past two months. Future exchange rate movements will be influenced by: 1. The strength of domestic economic recovery, which could provide room for further RMB appreciation 2. The trajectory of the USD, where the Federal Reserve's monetary policy will directly impact the USD's performance 3. Trade and investment flows, where growth in exports and foreign capital inflows will help stabilize the RMB exchange rate [7] Short-term Exchange Rate Outlook - In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.13 to 7.20, with limited potential for significant volatility unless unexpected international financial events occur [8] Currency Exchange Strategies for Different Groups - The impact of RMB exchange rate fluctuations varies among different groups: - Students, tourists, cross-border e-commerce practitioners, and those with foreign income or debts are directly affected by exchange rate movements, with recent RMB appreciation benefiting cross-border e-commerce sellers by increasing their RMB returns upon currency conversion [10] - Investors should closely monitor exchange rate fluctuations to avoid making impulsive foreign currency purchases at high points [10] Current Need for Currency Exchange - For individuals with immediate needs, such as tuition payments, rent, or travel expenses, it is advisable to exchange currency in batches to mitigate risks. For those merely observing the market without immediate financial implications, it is prudent to stay informed and wait for a more favorable exchange opportunity [12]

新华财经上海7月14日电（葛佳明） 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，7月11日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线上涨，CFETS人民币汇率指数报95.6，按周涨 0.3；BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数报101.16，按周涨0.54；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报90.52，按周涨0.36。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 95.60 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 101.16 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 90.52 | 图片来源：中国外汇交易中心 上周（7月7日至7月11日）美元迎来今年2月末以来最为强劲的反弹，全周累计涨幅达0.91%，报97.873；非美货币兑美元多数走弱，日元上周大幅收跌2%； 欧元上周最终收跌0.76%；受到低迷经济增长数据的影响，英镑上周持续自历史高位回落，最终收跌1.15%。 人民币汇率上周保持稳健，在主要货币中表现较为靠前，对一篮子货币亦出现小幅反弹。具体来看，离岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1736，全周累计跌90个基 点；人民币兑美元中间价报7.1475，创2024年11月8日以来最高，全周累计升60个基点 ...

2025年7月14日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1491，上调（人民币贬值）16点； 欧元/人民币报8.3610，下调87点； 港元/人民币报0.91072，上调1.8点； 英镑/人民币报9.6665，下调477点； 澳元/人民币报4.7127，下调29点； 加元/人民币报5.2349，下调42点； 100日元/人民币报4.8659，下调322点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.8731，上调407点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3047，下调178点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59388，上调2.9点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.9919，上调60点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5928，下调5点。 ...

Group 1: Fluorochemical Industry - The fluorochemical industry is expected to maintain a high level of prosperity, with companies like Juhua Co. and Yonghe Co. forecasting significant profit increases for the first half of 2025, with Juhua's net profit expected to rise by 136% to 155% year-on-year [8][9] - The prices of third-generation refrigerants have increased, with R32, R125, and R134a priced at 52,500 CNY/ton, 45,500 CNY/ton, and 49,000 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 2.94%, 0%, and 1.03% since April [7] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co. and Sanmei Co. [9] Group 2: Renminbi Exchange Rate - The Renminbi exchange rate has undergone significant changes, transitioning from a surplus-driven "surplus settlement" to a "interest rate holding" model due to the inversion of interest rates between China and the US [12] - The current account surplus reached a historical high of 165.6 billion USD in Q1 2025, with a strong trade surplus of 237.6 billion USD, indicating robust support for the Renminbi [12][13] - The willingness of foreign trade enterprises to settle in Renminbi has increased, with net settlement rates rising to 41% in April 2025, reflecting a recovery in the foreign exchange market [14] Group 3: Lexin Technology (688018) - Lexin Technology is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.22 to 1.25 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33% to 36% [17] - The company's net profit is expected to rise by 65% to 78%, driven by the adoption of its wireless SoC solutions across various digital scenarios [18] - Lexin's first Wi-Fi 6E wireless communication chip has completed engineering sample testing and is set for mass production in the second half of 2025, enhancing its competitive edge in high-speed wireless communication [19] Group 4: Renewable Energy and Power Equipment - The global wind power industry is expected to continue its growth, with an estimated 117 GW of new wind power capacity to be added in 2024 and a compound annual growth rate of 8.8% from 2025 to 2030 [25] - The report highlights the increasing demand for energy storage systems driven by the need for reliable power supply amid extreme weather and geopolitical events [24] - Companies with leading market shares and advanced technology in energy storage, such as CATL and EVE Energy, are recommended for investment [25]

Core Points - The central bank's foreign exchange market has reported the RMB exchange rates for July 11, 2025, indicating a mixed performance against various currencies [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1475, a decrease of 35 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.3697, down by 313 points, reflecting a stronger RMB against the Euro [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91054, down by 4.2 points, showing a slight appreciation of the RMB against the Hong Kong Dollar [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is at 9.7142, down by 209 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the British Pound [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.7156, up by 335 points, suggesting a depreciation of the RMB against the Australian Dollar [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.2391, up by 63 points, indicating a weaker RMB against the Canadian Dollar [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.8981, down by 65 points, reflecting a stronger RMB against the Japanese Yen [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 10.8324, down by 550 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the Russian Ruble [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.3225, up by 227 points, suggesting a depreciation of the RMB against the New Zealand Dollar [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.59359, up by 8.9 points, indicating a weaker RMB against the Malaysian Ringgit [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is at 8.9859, down by 426 points, reflecting a stronger RMB against the Swiss Franc [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.5933, down by 21 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the Singapore Dollar [1]

Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB exchange rate has evolved from a fixed system to a more flexible management system since the 2005 reform, with significant changes in pricing logic from "surplus settlement" to "interest rate differential holding" as the main driver[6] - In Q1 2025, the current account surplus reached $165.6 billion, a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 250%, driven by strong goods trade surplus of $237.6 billion, up 90% year-on-year[21] - The financial account recorded a deficit of $496.2 billion in 2024, an increase of $256.8 billion from the previous year, indicating significant downward pressure on direct and securities investments[25] Group 2: Investment Trends and Market Sentiment - Direct investment is expected to recover in 2025, with foreign direct investment (FDI) turning positive in Q4 2024, recording a net inflow of $34.1 billion, a 66% year-on-year increase[28] - Securities investment saw a historical high quarterly outflow of $149.5 billion in Q4 2024, but is anticipated to improve as market conditions stabilize[31] - The willingness of foreign trade enterprises to settle in RMB has increased, with the net settlement rate rising to 41% in April 2025, reflecting a recovery in market confidence[49] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are critical for the RMB exchange rate, with expectations of a slower and smaller rate cut cycle impacting emerging markets[14] - The resilience of the current account and the recovery of the financial account are essential for supporting the RMB's bottom line, with potential for continued appreciation in the second half of 2025[22] - Risks include potential setbacks in U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions that could affect capital flows and the current account surplus[42]

Core Viewpoint - The RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate and appreciate in July 2025, projected to be in the range of 7.10 to 7.25 against the USD, influenced by various domestic and international economic factors [1][6]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Trends - In June 2025, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated within the range of 7.1575 to 7.1986, with the onshore rate between 7.1656 and 7.1895, and the offshore rate between 7.1575 and 7.1986 [2][3]. - The overall trend of the RMB is supported by the continued interest rate cuts by major global economies, which have positively impacted the RMB [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Factors - In May 2025, China's retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a steady growth in consumer demand and ongoing economic recovery [3]. - The launch of the domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, marks a significant technological breakthrough for China, enhancing its economic stability [3]. Group 3: International Economic Factors - Major economies, including the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank, have continued to lower interest rates, which has created a favorable environment for the RMB [2][5]. - Despite the stability in interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, market expectations for future rate cuts have increased due to ongoing global monetary easing [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The combination of China's economic growth, military advancements, and technological breakthroughs is expected to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, supporting the RMB's stability [5]. - The anticipated passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US Congress, which could lead to significant fiscal pressure, may further influence market expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [5].