Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to multiple factors, including domestic economic recovery and macroeconomic policies, with expectations for continued stability and potential mild appreciation in the second half of the year [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Performance - As of July 4, the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1643, an increase of 58 basis points from the previous close [1]. - In the first half of the year, the onshore and offshore RMB to USD exchange rates rose by 1.82% and 2.45%, respectively [1]. - The RMB to USD central parity rate was adjusted up by 298 basis points in the first half of the year [1]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - The decline of the US dollar index by 10.79% in the first half of the year contributed to the strengthening of the RMB [2]. - Domestic policies aimed at counter-cyclical adjustments provided significant support for the RMB exchange rate [2]. - The narrowing gap between onshore, offshore, and central parity rates indicates a potential convergence of these rates, suggesting a more stable exchange environment [2]. Group 3: Outlook for the Second Half of the Year - Experts predict that the RMB may experience mild appreciation due to favorable external and internal factors [2]. - Continued domestic growth policies are expected to play a crucial role in stabilizing the exchange rate [2]. - The People's Bank of China plans to enhance the foreign exchange market, including the introduction of RMB foreign exchange futures trading, which may further support the RMB's stability [3]. Group 4: Market Resilience and Risk Management - The maturity and rationality of market participants have improved, with the proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging rising to around 30% [3]. - The ability to manage exchange rate fluctuations has significantly increased, bolstering confidence in maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive market atmosphere created by the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, leading to a collective rise in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) experienced a slight decline of 0.56% as of 10:35 AM, despite having gained over 4% last week and nearly 30% year-to-date [1] - Notable stock performances include a rise of over 7% for companies like Innovent Biologics and CanSino Biologics, while companies such as Kelun-Biotech and Zai Lab saw increases of over 6% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened in the market by selling US dollars and buying Hong Kong dollars, involving an amount of HKD 20.018 billion to stabilize the currency [1] - The total bank system surplus has decreased to HKD 144.1 billion, following a cumulative purchase of approximately HKD 30 billion by the HKMA from June 26 to July 2 [1] - The Hibor rate has dropped from 4.5% to 0.4%, indicating a significant change in the liquidity environment [1] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs indicated a strong interest from investors in the Hong Kong market and Hong Kong dollar assets, with a relatively abundant liquidity environment [1] - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active without causing liquidity issues, and there is an increasing demand for the Hong Kong dollar from overseas investors [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513860) account for 69.41% of the index, including major companies like Xiaomi, Tencent, and BYD [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The June PMI shows that the domestic prosperity level remains in an expansion state, which is beneficial to the stock market. The State Council Executive Meeting emphasizes strengthening the main position of enterprise technological innovation, which is expected to bring more benefits to growth - style technology stocks. The recent weakening of the US dollar index has also relieved the pressure on the RMB exchange rate. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) is 3894.2 (+4.8), IH (2509) is 2696.8 (+4.2), IC (2509) is 5756.6 (-14.0), IM (2509) is 6117.0 (-17.0). IF (2507) is 3921.0 (+6.0), IH (2507) is 2703.0 (+4.6), IC (2507) is 5856.6 (-15.4), IM (2507) is 6262.2 (-24.8) [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1218.0 (+2.4), IC - IF spread is 1935.6 (-20.8), etc. [2]. - **Season - to - Current Month Spreads**: IF when - season to current month is - 26.8 (-1.2), IH is - 6.2 (0.0), IC is - 100.0 (+3.4), IM is - 145.2 (+8.2) [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,725.00 (+104.0), IH is - 11,962.00 (-155.0), IC is - 10,395.00 (+7.0), IM is - 34,573.00 (-258.0) [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 is 3943.68 (+0.9), SSE 50 is 2722.55 (+4.8), CSI 500 is 5892.95 (-41.7), CSI 1000 is 6309.48 (-64.3) [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume is 14,051.09 billion yuan (-914.22 billion), margin trading balance is 18,545.63 billion yuan. North - bound trading volume is 1318.02 billion yuan (-260.71 billion) [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks is 35.87% (-12.64%), Shibor is 1.365% (-0.002) [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares score is 4.00 (-1.60), technical aspect is 3.60 (-1.20), capital aspect is 4.40 (-1.90) [2]. Industry News - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, up 0.2 points from last month; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 points; comprehensive PMI is 50.7%, up 0.3 points [2]. - A - share major indices generally declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index weakened. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.13% [2]. Key Data to Focus On - On July 2, at 19:30, focus on US June Challenger job - cuts; at 20:15, focus on US June ADP employment [3]. - On July 3, at 20:30, focus on US June non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In June, the capital market was loose with a slight downward shift in the capital center under the central bank's care. In July, the capital market may continue to be moderately loose due to favorable factors, but it may not loosen significantly [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 6 - Month Review: Central Bank's Care Leads to Slight Downward Shift in Capital Center - **Capital Market Looseness**: In June, the capital market remained loose, with most - term capital centers moving down. DR001, DR007, and DR014 operation centers decreased by 11bp, 2bp, and 1bp respectively compared to May. DR001 mostly operated below the policy rate, and the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate "anti - seasonally" narrowed [2][12]. - **Central Bank's Warm Attitude**: The central bank showed a warm attitude. It conducted two outright reverse - repurchase operations in June with early announcements, net - injecting 2000 billion yuan. MLF continued to increase, with a net injection of 118 billion yuan in June. The central bank's total net - injected funds in June were the second - highest among the same periods since 2018 [16]. - **Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit (NCD)**: In June, the maturity scale of NCDs reached a record high, and the issuance scale was the second - highest in history. However, the NCD issuance rate, after rising in mid - to - late May, started to decline in June under the central bank's long - term capital injection. The R - DR spread seasonally widened [3][19][21]. 3.2 7 - Month Outlook: Capital Market May Continue to be Moderately Loose under Favorable Factors - **Historical Seasonal Pattern**: Historically, capital rates in July tend to decline seasonally. Since 2018, the capital market in July has been more relaxed than in June, mainly manifested by the narrowing of the deviation of DR007 from the policy rate [4][24]. - **Exchange Rate Factor**: The recent dissipation of RMB depreciation pressure and the exchange rate approaching 7.15 mean that the current exchange - rate environment no longer restricts the central bank's monetary easing [4]. - **Central Bank's Mention of "Preventing Capital Idling"**: Although the central bank mentioned "preventing capital idling" in the second - quarter monetary policy meeting, since 2024, when this statement was made, the capital rate did not rise significantly. The central bank's frequent mention of it in 2025 may not be directly related to a change in its attitude [5][31][32]. - **Liquidity Gap**: In July, the net financing pressure of government bonds will slightly increase by 80 billion yuan compared to June. The increase in government deposits may widen the liquidity gap. Considering the maturity of monetary tools, the liquidity gap will be 2.06 trillion yuan. Assuming the central bank conducts equal - amount roll - overs, the estimated excess - reserve ratio in July is about 1.3%, slightly lower than in June [6][37][42].

Group 1 - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) closed at 7.1650 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 14 points compared to the previous night session [1] - The trading volume for the yuan was reported at 44.223 billion USD [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 1, 2025 [1] - Authors: Wang Mengying (Z0015429), Liao Chenyue (F03120676) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review - Stock Index Performance: The stock index continued to rise, with the CSI 300 index closing up 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 20.842 billion yuan. Among the stock index futures, IF decreased in volume, IH and IC increased in volume, and IM decreased in volume. [2] Group 3: Important News - Tariff Announcement: With only 10 days left until the "tariff deadline" on July 9, Trump clearly stated that there is no need to extend the upcoming tariff deadline. He will directly send letters to hundreds of countries to notify them of the tariff rates and will no longer conduct individual trade negotiations. [3] Group 4: Core View - Market Outlook: The stock index continued to rise today, but the trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink. There is a lack of positive information to drive the index up, and the future strength of the RMB exchange rate remains to be seen. The market sentiment is cautious, and the sustainability of this round of the stock index rise is uncertain. If the trading volume continues to shrink and the upward momentum weakens, a short - term adjustment is expected. [4] Group 5: Strategy Recommendation - Strategy: Hold and wait for further development [5] Group 6: Futures Market Observation | Futures Type | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Volume (10,000 lots) | Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.03 | 7.0001 | -0.8991 | 23.8772 | -0.5835 | | IH | 0.08 | 3.2102 | -0.8576 | 8.3173 | -0.2668 | | IC | 0.01 | 6.8686 | -0.2617 | 22.0821 | -0.054 | | IM | -0.36 | 18.1858 | 0.9846 | 32.7974 | 1.0329 | [5] Group 7: Spot Market Observation | Index Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 0.11 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.03 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 146.6015 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | -20.842 | [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the three major RMB exchange rate indices indicates a weakening of the Chinese yuan against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS index hitting its lowest level since December 2020 [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index is reported at 95.36, down 0.56% week-on-week, marking a low not seen since December 2020 [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index stands at 100.73, down 0.78% week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index is at 90.21, down 0.54% week-on-week, the lowest since August 2020 [1][2]. Market Context - The geopolitical situation and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have contributed to a decline in the US dollar, which fell 1.52% last week to 97.26, its lowest in nearly three years [5]. - Non-USD currencies saw gains, with the Swiss franc rising 2.35%, the British pound up 1.97%, and the euro increasing by 1.7% [5]. - The onshore RMB against the USD closed at 7.1711, down 126 basis points for the week, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1729, down 65 basis points, a decline of 0.09% [5]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that the future trajectory of the RMB is closely tied to the outlook for the US dollar, with a clear direction for gradual appreciation of the RMB in the medium to long term [6]. - Li Liuyang, Chief Analyst at CICC, indicates that the RMB exchange rate will maintain a moderate appreciation in a weak dollar environment, supported by stable exchange rate policies [5][6]. Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to May, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 27,204.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6,034.1 billion yuan compared to the previous four months [7]. - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to May, total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises was 328,062.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while total profits were 16,514.5 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows mixed signals with some indicators stable and others facing challenges. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, while PPI continued to decline, and industrial enterprise profits were under pressure. Fiscal policy is expected to play a more active role in the second half of the year, and the bond market is generally optimistic in July. The stock market presents structural opportunities, especially in certain sectors like innovation drugs and AI - related areas [2][14][22][33] - Global trade is affected by the US "equivalent tariff" policy, which has drawn strong opposition from China. International geopolitical events also impact commodity markets, such as the situation in the Middle East affecting the oil market, and Canada's digital service tax on US tech companies causing trade frictions [3][15] - The gold market has long - term upward potential but is subject to significant short - term volatility due to Trump's unpredictable policies. The copper market has seen shortages outside the US due to import investigations, and the lithium market continues its downward trend [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from April. Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators showed different trends, and industrial enterprise profits in January - May decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [1] - The trade balance in May showed exports growing by 4.8% year - on - year and imports declining by 3.4% year - on - year. The CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China will release June PMI data on June 30. The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing policies in the second half of the year, and incremental policies may be introduced. The US "equivalent tariff" policy has been strongly opposed by China, and domestic refined oil prices may rise on July 1 [2][3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, rose 2.7% year - on - year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations. Personal consumption and income declined, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice this year, with the first cut possibly in September [4] Metals - In May, the upstream physical gold demand weakened seasonally, and the gold出库 volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 35% month - on - month. Gold prices have been oscillating at a high level recently, and there is long - term upward potential. The copper market outside the US is facing shortages, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has fallen below 60,000 yuan/ton [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada imposed a 50% tariff on steel imports from non - free - trade - agreement countries. The iron ore market may face negative feedback in the future due to factors such as the end of export rush and unstable domestic demand [8] Energy and Chemicals - China's first national - level continental shale oil demonstration area in Xinjiang reached a record high daily output. The Haifa refinery in Israel has partially resumed production. The ICE Brent crude oil speculators reduced their net long positions, and OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July [10] Agricultural Products - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions of Japan. Argentine exporters have declared 6.1 million metric tons of soybeans and their derivatives for external sales in June [11] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan. This week, 2.0275 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature [13] Key News - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested strengthening policy regulation. The fiscal policy will focus on implementing existing policies and may introduce incremental policies. The Sino - US trade teams are in close communication, and China will approve eligible export applications, while the US will cancel some restrictive measures [14] - From January to May, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The total revenue of state - owned enterprises was 32.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the total profit was 1.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [16] - The bond market is generally positive, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining. The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and falling, and the convertible bond market also showed different trends. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1690 on June 30, down 6.0 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.04% in New York trading [26] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB exchange rate may maintain a low - volatility state in the short term. The current active equity products are over - allocated in stocks and under - allocated in bonds, and future products may increase the allocation of equity assets with similar bond attributes [27] - Huatai Macro points out that the impact of tariffs on industrial enterprise profits is emerging, and there is still great uncertainty in tariff policies after July 9. Guosheng Fixed Income suggests maintaining a long - term position in bonds and seizing the bull market after the end of the quarter [28][29] Today's Reminders - On June 30, 241 bonds will be listed, 38 bonds will be issued, 67 bonds will make payments, and 617 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 4. Stock Market Key News - Starting from June 30, the share transaction fee in the Hong Kong market will be adjusted from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, which is beneficial for reducing small - scale transaction costs and optimizing institutional investors' trading strategies [31] - In the first half of this year, hot topics such as innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and the Beijing Stock Exchange drove the market. The performance of funds investing in innovative drugs was outstanding, while AI - themed funds had poor performance. The Hong Kong stock market's financing was booming, and the A - share market showed an upward trend last week [32][33] - Some institutions believe that the stock market will present structural opportunities during the interim report season. AI and military industries are expected to be the focus of structural opportunities in the third quarter, and new consumption and innovative drugs may rebound after June 30 [33][34]

Core Points - The central exchange rate of the Renminbi (RMB) against various currencies has shown fluctuations, indicating a mixed performance in the foreign exchange market as of June 30, 2025 [1] Currency Exchange Rate Summary - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1586, reflecting a depreciation of 41 points for the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.4024, showing an appreciation of 256 points for the RMB [1] - The HKD/RMB rate stands at 0.91195, with a decrease of 5.5 points for the RMB [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is recorded at 9.8300, indicating a decline of 45 points for the RMB [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.6817, down by 104 points for the RMB [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is reported at 5.2358, reflecting a decrease of 161 points for the RMB [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.9594, with an increase of 12 points for the RMB [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is reported at 10.9558, showing a decline of 228 points for the RMB [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.3475, indicating an appreciation of 30 points for the RMB [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.58996, with a slight increase of 0.1 points for the RMB [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is reported at 8.9721, reflecting an appreciation of 274 points for the RMB [1] - The SGD/RMB rate stands at 5.6179, showing a decrease of 22 points for the RMB [1]

不过，业界普遍认为，下半年仍有降准降息的可能和空间。银河证券研报分析，将"择机降准降息"转变 为"灵活把握政策实施的力度和节奏"，不代表三季度不会降准降息。降息方面，当前的实际利率依然显 著高于自然利率，仍需进一步调降，预计下半年还会有1次至2次降息，总计调降政策利率20个基点至30 个基点。降准方面，预计下半年降准幅度达到50个基点。 王青预计，下半年央行还会继续降准降息，其中降息幅度可能达到30个基点，降准幅度有可能达到50个 基点，这将引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下调，降低实体经济融资成本，激发内生性融资需求。 日前，中国人民银行货币政策委员会召开2025年第二季度例会。会议提出，要实施好适度宽松的货币政 策，加强逆周期调节，更好发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，保 持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 对于下阶段货币政策的主要思路，2025年第二季度例会建议加大货币政策调控强度，提高货币政策调控 前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，灵活把握政策实施的力度和 节奏。 灵活把握货币政策节奏 在货币政策基调上，2025年第二季度例会延续了"适度宽松 ...