2025.06. 28 本文字数：1837，阅读时长大约3分钟 例会公报重申，要实施适度宽松的货币政策，加强逆周期调节，发挥货币政策工具的总量和结构双重 功能，加大货币财政政策协同配合，保持经济稳定增长和物价处于合理水平。 这意味着，尽管上半年经济稳中向好，但在外部环境复杂、国内有效需求不足、房地产市场持续调整 的背景下，货币政策"适度宽松"的主基调未变，央行仍将维持支持性政策立场。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，二季度例会未直接提及"适时降准降息"，一方面是因为5月已有 降准降息落地，当前处于政策观察期；另一方面，上半年经济表现偏强，短期内再次实施降准降息的 紧迫性有所降低。 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 6月27日，中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第二季度例会内容公布，传递出下半年货币政策与汇 率调控的重要信号。面对复杂的国内外经济形势，本次例会在经济形势判断、政策思路及汇率政策表 述上均有微调，引发市场广泛关注。 在经济形势研判上，例会对国内国外挑战的表述更加细化。对内，再度强调"内需不足"，并着重指 出"物价持续低位运行"；对外，明确"当前外部环境更趋复杂严峻""贸易壁垒增多" ，凸显外部压力 的增 ...

在岸人民币兑美元收盘报7.1690，较上一交易日下跌6点。 ...

6月27日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 716.27人民币 100欧元 837.68人民币 新华社北京6月27日电 中国外汇交易中心6月27日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 100日元 4.9582人民币 100加元 525.19人民币 100港元 91.25人民币 100英镑 983.45人民币 100澳元 469.21人民币 100新西兰元 434.45人民币 100新加坡元 562.01人民币 100瑞士法郎 894.47人民币 100人民币 112.88澳门元 100人民币 58.995马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1097.86俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 249.25南非兰特 100人民币 18924韩元 100人民币 51.264阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 52.355沙特里亚尔 100人民币 4771.73匈牙利福林 100人民币 50.617波兰兹罗提 100人民币 89.07丹麦克朗 100人民币 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with expectations of continued low volatility in the short term [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Trends - The US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level in three years, dropping below the 97 mark for the first time since March 2022, while the euro has reached its highest level against the dollar since September 2021 [2]. - The RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, with both onshore and offshore RMB surpassing the 7.16 mark, marking a new high since mid-November of the previous year [1][4]. - Year-to-date, the US dollar index has declined by approximately 10%, while the onshore RMB has appreciated by nearly 1.8% and the offshore RMB by over 2.3% [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The expectation of at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year is bolstered by recent economic data, including a 0.5% decline in the annualized real GDP for Q1, which is the first contraction in three years [2]. - The Chinese economy has shown stability, with steady growth in industrial output and retail sales, contributing to the RMB's strength [5]. - The recent performance of the Chinese capital market has led to increased cross-border capital inflows, further supporting the RMB [5]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated plans to introduce more financial policies related to foreign exchange, aiming to maintain stability in the foreign exchange market and safeguard economic and financial security [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that the relationship between the US dollar and US equities is influenced by multiple factors, including growth differentials and monetary policy, rather than being linear [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides the mid-exchange rates of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) against various currencies as of June 27, 2025, indicating fluctuations in the currency values. Exchange Rate Summary - USD/CNY is reported at 7.1627, an increase (devaluation of CNY) by 7 points [1] - EUR/CNY is reported at 8.3768, an increase by 162 points [1] - HKD/CNY is reported at 0.9125, a decrease by 0.4 points [1] - GBP/CNY is reported at 9.8345, an increase by 388 points [1] - AUD/CNY is reported at 4.6921, an increase by 252 points [1] - CAD/CNY is reported at 5.2519, an increase by 321 points [1] - 100 JPY/CNY is reported at 4.9582, an increase by 194 points [1] - CNY/RUB is reported at 10.9786, an increase by 571 points [1] - NZD/CNY is reported at 4.3445, an increase by 135 points [1] - CNY/MYR is reported at 0.58995, a decrease by 12.1 points [1] - CHF/CNY is reported at 8.9447, an increase by 399 points [1] - SGD/CNY is reported at 5.6201, an increase by 146 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown characteristics of "low volatility + resilience" since June, achieving a basic "triple price unity" [1] Group 1: Factors Influencing Yuan Resilience - The weakening trend of the US dollar index has contributed to the resilience of the yuan [1] - Domestic fundamentals and policy initiatives have provided support for the yuan [1] - The central bank's flexible operations to stabilize the exchange rate have played a crucial role [1] - The release of demand for foreign exchange settlement from clients has also bolstered the yuan's resilience [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The existing US tariffs on China will continue to exert pressure on exports, which remains a concern [1] - The key factors for the yuan's exchange rate will be the effectiveness of domestic consumption policies and the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations after a potential easing of tariffs [1] - With the central bank's flexible exchange rate stabilization policies, the yuan is expected to maintain a low volatility state in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the Chinese yuan has been appreciating against the US dollar since June, driven by both internal and external factors [1][2] - The onshore and offshore yuan both broke the 7.16 mark against the dollar on June 26, reaching new highs not seen since mid-November of the previous year [1] - The recent strengthening of the yuan is attributed to a weaker dollar and a stable domestic economic environment, including growth in industrial output and retail sales [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index has been declining since June 19, hitting a low of 96.9923 on June 26, the lowest level since March 2022 [2] - Analysts predict that the yuan will continue to remain stable and strong in the short term, as the US dollar is expected to face ongoing pressure due to the impact of US government policies on the economy [2]

Investment Chain - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and silver have risen since June 2025. Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to 3.70% as of May 2025, with real estate development investment declining by 10.70% and manufacturing fixed asset investment down to 8.50% [1][2] - Infrastructure investment growth rate has also decreased to 10.42%. Since June 2025, prices of gold, zinc, and nickel have fallen, while coal prices slightly decreased to 663 RMB/ton [1][2] Consumption Chain - Retail sales growth rate has increased, with nominal growth rebounding to 6.40% in May 2025 and cumulative growth rising to 5.00%. Automobile sales growth rate for May 2025 increased to 11.15% [2][3] - The cumulative growth rate for commercial housing sales has declined to -3.62%. Retail sales of home appliances surged with a growth rate of 56.98% in May 2025 [2][3] Export Chain - Export growth rates to the US, Japan, and ASEAN have decreased, while exports to the EU have increased. In May 2025, the export growth rate for toys, lighting, coke, coal, steel, ships, plastics, and auto parts rose, while agricultural products, furniture, and refined oil exports saw declines [3][4] - The electronic export growth rate increased to 21.17% in May 2025, while textile and clothing exports fell to 1.98% [3][4] Price Chain - Oil prices rose, with WTI reaching 64.37 USD/barrel on June 24, 2025. Prices for PVC and MDI have decreased, with PVC at 4680 RMB/ton and pure MDI at 17100 RMB/ton as of June 20, 2025 [4] - Pork prices dropped to 14.45 RMB/kg on June 11, 2025, while new credit increased to 620 billion RMB in May 2025 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is influenced by a combination of factors, including the weakening of the dollar, domestic economic fundamentals, and increased demand for currency exchange by foreign trade enterprises [4][5][12]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On June 26, the RMB's central parity rate against the US dollar was set at 7.1620, an increase of 48 points from the previous trading day, reaching its highest point since November 2024 [1]. - The onshore and offshore RMB both showed a trend of appreciation, with the offshore RMB reaching 7.1525, the highest since November 8, 2024, and the onshore RMB peaking at 7.1570 [1]. - Year-to-date, the offshore RMB has appreciated approximately 2.3% against the US dollar, while the dollar index has declined over 10% [5]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index has decreased from 102.09 to 95.92, a drop of 5.47%, indicating that the recent appreciation of the RMB against the dollar is more a result of dollar depreciation rather than inherent strength of the RMB [8]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's appreciation is supported by a combination of domestic economic stability, flexible central bank operations, and the release of currency exchange demand [5][12]. - The willingness of foreign trade enterprises to accelerate currency exchange is a key driver of the current RMB appreciation, influenced by fluctuations in the dollar index and concerns over dollar credit [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will continue to experience low volatility and gradual appreciation in the second half of the year, with the overall trend remaining positive [4][12]. - The ongoing "de-dollarization" trend globally is expected to further weaken the dollar, which may support the RMB's strength [14][15]. - The central bank's management of the RMB's exchange rate, particularly through the adjustment of swap premiums, indicates a cautious approach to avoid rapid appreciation [12][16].

Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - In May, the RMB exchange rate showed a general strengthening trend due to multiple factors, including a temporary easing of the US-China trade situation [1][2] - The RMB/USD exchange rate fluctuated and rose, breaking the 7.20 mark on May 12, despite a rebound in the dollar index [2] - By the end of May, the RMB exchange rate was recorded at 7.1953, reflecting an overall appreciation of 0.94% for the month [3] Group 2: Market Activity - The interbank foreign exchange market remained stable in May, with an average daily trading volume of $207.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.59% [4] - The average daily trading volume in the RMB foreign exchange market was $158.10 billion, also showing a year-on-year increase of 8.43% [4] - The trading direction in the spot market showed variability, with institutions alternating between net selling and buying, resulting in an average daily net selling of $2.67 million [4] Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the US widened slightly in May, influenced by factors such as US government policies and inflation risks [5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield reached a three-month high of 4.58% before slightly retreating to 4.41% by the end of May [5] - The 10-year China-US bond yield spread ended the month at -274 basis points, widening by 20 basis points compared to the previous month [5] Group 4: Swap Points and Liquidity - The one-year swap points ended May at -2060 basis points, down 107 basis points from the previous month, primarily driven by interest rate factors [6] - The offshore swap points moved in sync with onshore points, with the one-year swap point spread narrowing to -97 basis points, the tightest since March 2023 [7] - Overall, dollar liquidity in the domestic market was relatively loose, with the domestic-offshore dollar overnight interest rate spread turning negative by the end of May [7]