Group 1 - The interbank foreign exchange market showed stable trading, with the average daily trading volume of the RMB foreign exchange market increasing by 12.59% year-on-year to $1580.99 billion in May, despite a 2.73% month-on-month decline [2] - The US dollar index experienced a slight depreciation, closing at 99.44 at the end of the month, reflecting a 0.2% decline for the month, influenced by weakening US inflation and trade policy uncertainties [3][4] - The People's Bank of China implemented a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate reduction, contributing to a strengthening of the RMB against the USD, with the RMB closing at 7.1953, appreciating by 0.94% for the month [4] Group 2 - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates began to converge, with the average daily onshore-offshore exchange rate difference being positive at 22 basis points, indicating a market expectation of RMB appreciation [5] - The implied volatility of RMB foreign exchange options showed a decline, with the average daily trading volume reaching $77.99 billion, indicating a stabilization of market sentiment [6] - The interest rate differential between China and the US widened slightly, with the 10-year US Treasury yield reaching a three-month high of 4.58% before retreating to 4.41% by month-end [7] Group 3 - The overall liquidity of the US dollar market remained loose, with the overnight interest rate in the domestic market declining to 4.30%, while the SOFR fluctuated around 4.35% towards the end of the month [8][9] - The domestic and foreign dollar overnight interest rate differential turned negative by month-end, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [9]

人民币汇率走强同期，美元指数年内罕见出现大幅下降，年内下滑幅度接近10%。截至6月24日18时15分，美元指数报98.0595，日内下降0.33%。 人民币中间价创近7个月以来新高，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元汇率也呈现连日升值走势，重返7.18关口上方。 截至当日18时15分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1735，日内升值幅度为0.08%；离岸人民币对美元报7.1729，日内升值幅度为0.03%。按照这一价格计算，2025年 以来，在岸人民币对美元汇率累计升值1.72%，离岸人民币对美元汇率累计升值幅度则达到2.24%。 消息面上，地缘政治因素带来了金融市场波动新变化，据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普于当地时间6月23日18时宣布，以色列和伊朗已就"全面彻底停火"达 成一致，这场为期12天的冲突即将结束。 另一方面，尽管美联储6月议息会议依然将联邦基金利率的目标区间维持在4.25%—4.5%，连续第四次决定维持利率不变。但会议后美联储持续释放鸽派信 号，使得市场对未来货币政策预期发生转向，美联储重新降息预期升温。 结合近期人民币汇率表现，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，近期人民币汇价走强，一个重要原因是同期美元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The power of bullish sentiment on the RMB exchange rate remains strong. The RMB deposit in the Hong Kong offshore market has returned to the trillion - yuan scale, and the RMB remittance related to cross - border trade settlement has increased significantly month - on - month. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the RMB bond's allocation and trading attractiveness are expected to continue to increase [2]. Summary by Directory 1. April: Hong Kong Offshore RMB Deposit and Remittance - As of the end of April 2025, the Hong Kong RMB deposit scale was 1030.895 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. The total RMB remittance related to cross - border trade settlement was 1362.144 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 15.0% and a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The RMB RTGS clearing amount dropped to 58.5 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 12.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.1% [5]. 2. May: USD Index and RMB Exchange Rate - The USD index first rose and then fell in May. The monthly average value decreased by 0.56% compared with April, and the decline was narrower than that in April. The RMB exchange rate fluctuated upwards, and the monthly average value of the on - offshore exchange rate turned positive. In April, the foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus expanded. High - frequency data showed that the average daily trading volume of the USD/CNY spot inquiry in May increased by 13.2% month - on - month. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly [2][7][11]. 3. May: Interest Rates - In May, there was no issuance of offshore RMB treasury bonds or central bank bills. The offshore RMB liquidity was abundant, and the CNH HIBOR fluctuated slightly downward. The HKD HIBOR declined significantly, and the average value of the offshore RMB - HKD interest rate spread widened. The on - shore SHIBOR continued to decline, and the average value of the on - offshore RMB interest rate spread narrowed. In the future, the SHIBOR volatility may increase stage by stage near the end of the quarter, the CNH HIBOR is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the HKD HIBOR may rise from a low level, but the probability of a significant upward trend is small [3][4]. 4. May: Swap Points and Derivatives - In May, the average values of on - and offshore RMB swap points showed different trends, and the inversion range of the on - offshore swap point spread continued to narrow. The trading volume of RMB futures on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange decreased, the open interest increased, and the settlement price strengthened. The option market continued to be bullish on the RMB exchange rate, indicating that the power of bullish sentiment on the RMB exchange rate remains strong [19][22]. 5. May - June: Offshore RMB Bonds - In May, the financing amount of offshore RMB bonds continued to decline. In April, the custody scale of overseas institutions in the inter - bank bond market rose to the highest level in nearly 7 months. Looking forward, the RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to strengthen, the probability of intensive issuance of offshore RMB treasury bonds in the short term is low, but the allocation and trading attractiveness of RMB bonds are expected to continue to increase [25][27][28].

100加元 521.94人民币 100人民币 19133韩元 新华社北京6月24日电 中国外汇交易中心6月24日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、迪拉姆、里亚 尔、福林、兹罗提、丹麦克朗、瑞典克朗、挪威克朗、里拉、墨西哥比索及泰铢的市场汇价。 6月24日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 716.56人民币 100欧元 831.06人民币 100日元 4.9137人民币 100港元 91.283人民币 100英镑 970.18人民币 100澳元 464.26人民币 100新西兰元 429.38人民币 100新加坡元 558.77人民币 100瑞士法郎 881.74人民币 100人民币 113.01澳门元 100人民币 59.761马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1094.42俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 248.76南非兰特 100人民币 51.273阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 52.385沙特里亚尔 100人民币 4848.04匈牙利福林 100人民币 51.439波兰兹罗提 100人民币 89.75丹麦克朗 100人民币 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View Currently, the domestic economic fundamentals are still under pressure due to overseas tariff factors. Domestic demand repair may become the main driving force for economic growth in the future. The Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged is expected to put pressure on the RMB exchange rate for some time. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East may push up inflation, which may lead the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged for a longer period. With the RMB remaining weak, the upside potential of A-shares is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: All major and minor contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed an upward trend. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2509) was 3797.4, up 25.8 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1169.4, up 1.8 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The net position of the top 20 in IF was - 28,036.00, up 2817.0 [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, and IC main contracts increased, while that of IM decreased. The basis of the IF main contract was - 60.5, up 12.5 [2]. 3.2 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume increased to 11,469.22 billion yuan, up 551.83 billion yuan. The margin trading balance decreased to 18,124.82 billion yuan, down 83.89 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Capital and Other Indicators**: North - bound trading volume increased to 1438.39 billion yuan, up 116.10 billion yuan. The proportion of rising stocks reached 82.05%, up 53.61 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - **Domestic Market**: A - share major indices rose collectively. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly. Over 4400 stocks rose. Computer and national defense and military industry sectors strengthened significantly [2]. - **Overseas Market**: The US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities intensified regional tensions. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week, and Powell's speech was hawkish [2]. 3.4 Economic Fundamentals - **Domestic Economy**: In May, domestic imports and exports, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added - value decreased year - on - year. The real estate market continued to decline. Only social retail sales increased. CPI and PPI data showed future price pressure [2]. - **Financial Data**: In May, the M1 - M2 gap narrowed, the growth rate of social financing stock remained the same as last month, but new RMB loans decreased year - on - year, indicating insufficient real - economy financing demand [2].

Key Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of oil price fluctuations and market risk preferences on asset allocation strategies [5][7] - The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance amid increasing internal disagreements, as indicated by the recent FOMC meeting [10][11] - The report highlights the stability of the LPR and the collaboration between the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority for cross-border payment systems [15][16] Group 1: Oil Price and Market Risk - Global equity markets showed poor performance in the week of June 20, with oil prices rebounding due to escalating Middle Eastern tensions, while gold prices declined [5][7] - Brent crude oil prices fluctuated between $70.56 and $79.04 per barrel, with expectations of sustained high prices due to potential supply disruptions from geopolitical conflicts [7] - The report suggests investing in energy, upstream sectors, and military industries due to the anticipated impact of rising oil prices on inflation and related costs [7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent FOMC meeting resulted in the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, with a more hawkish dot plot indicating increased internal divisions among officials [10][11] - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 were downgraded by 30 basis points to 1.4%, while inflation and unemployment predictions were adjusted upward, reflecting a "stagflation" outlook [11][12] - Fed Chair Powell revised his previous stance on "transitory inflation," acknowledging the potential for persistent inflation effects due to tariffs and other factors [12] Group 3: Financial Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3359 points, reflecting a lack of strong buying interest [19][20] - The report notes that the banking, liquor, and electronic chemical sectors saw net inflows, while IT services and cultural media sectors faced significant outflows [21][22] - Market sentiment remains low, with only 22% of industry sectors closing in the green, indicating a cautious investment environment [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) has strengthened against the US dollar, closing at 7.1791, marking a rise of 69 points from the previous New York session, indicating a positive trend over the last two trading days [1] Summary by Category - **Currency Performance** - The offshore yuan (CNH) traded at 7.1791 against the US dollar, reflecting a gain of 69 points from the previous close [1] - The currency has shown a strengthening trend for two consecutive trading days [1] - The trading range for the day was between 7.1876 and 7.1742 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The June LPR remains unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate, which aligns with market expectations following the previous monetary policy adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the June LPR is attributed to the recent monetary policy changes, where a 10 basis point reduction was implemented in May, leading to a corresponding adjustment in LPR rates [1][2]. - Experts indicate that the current economic conditions do not necessitate further immediate adjustments to the LPR, as the policy rates are expected to remain stable [2][3]. Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts believe that the unchanged LPR reflects the lack of significant changes in the factors influencing LPR pricing, thus meeting market expectations [2]. - The chief economist from China Minsheng Bank noted that the recent financial policies aim to stabilize market expectations, contributing to the current LPR stability [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - While there may be potential for future LPR reductions, market participants are advised to temper their expectations regarding the timing and extent of such adjustments [3]. - The ongoing reduction of deposit rates by major banks is expected to continue, which may impact the LPR if further reductions are pursued [3]. - Experts suggest that the focus should be on reducing overall financing costs rather than solely relying on LPR adjustments, especially in light of external factors such as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [3].

Core Viewpoint - The chief researcher of Zhaolian, Dong Ximiao, stated that lowering the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is not an urgent matter, as the marginal effect of interest rate cuts is decreasing with the continuous decline of market interest rates [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Dynamics - The external factor of the Federal Reserve slowing down its rate cuts may lead to an expanded China-U.S. interest rate differential if the LPR is lowered too quickly, which could increase pressure on the RMB exchange rate [1] - The next step should focus on reducing the overall financing costs in society, indicating that lowering the LPR is not the only method to achieve this [1] Group 2: Financing Cost Reduction Strategies - Future efforts to lower comprehensive financing costs may need to target non-interest costs, such as reducing mortgage guarantee fees and intermediary service fees [1]

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 6 月 19 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1 / 8 大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，受昨日议息会议影响，贵金属继续小幅回调，伦敦 金当前交投于 3369 美元附近，伦敦银当前交投于 36.4 美元附近。受外盘驱动， 沪金主力合约收跌 0.49%，报 781.24 元/克，沪银主力合约收跌 1.91%，报 8819 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数持续反弹，当前交投于 98.9 附近。 3.美债收益率：休市。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位盘整，当前交投于 7.187 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.美联储 6 月议息会议：①连续第四次维持利率不变，②点阵图显示今年降息 两次，但预计今年不降息 ...