Core Insights - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $3.6 billion to $328.53 billion, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, although the increase was significantly lower than the previous month's $41 billion rise [3] - The increase in foreign reserves is attributed to a combination of exchange rate adjustments and asset price changes, with non-USD currencies contributing positively while bond prices declined [3] - China's gold reserves reached 73.83 million ounces, marking a net increase for the seventh consecutive month, despite a slight decrease in the proportion of gold reserves relative to total foreign reserves [5][6] Foreign Exchange Reserves - The foreign exchange reserves stood at $328.53 billion as of May, reflecting a $3.6 billion increase from April [3] - The increase was primarily driven by the appreciation of non-USD currencies and fluctuations in global asset prices, with the dollar index showing a slight decline [3] - The average daily trading volume in the domestic foreign exchange market reached $47.8 billion, a 13% increase month-on-month, indicating heightened trading activity [4] Gold Reserves - China's gold reserves increased by 60,000 ounces to 73.83 million ounces, with a total value of approximately $241.99 billion, accounting for 7.37% of total foreign reserves [5] - The gold price experienced a decline of 0.7% in May, marking the first monthly drop in five months, influenced by macroeconomic factors [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the central bank's continued accumulation of gold is a strategic move to enhance the credibility of the national currency and support the internationalization of the renminbi [6]

Strategy - The article discusses the accelerating trend of A to H listings in the Hong Kong stock market, with nearly 50 A-share companies planning to list in Hong Kong, of which 23 have submitted materials or have been approved [3][4] - The recent H-share listing of CATL has intensified this trend, achieving the highest IPO financing globally for the year and leading to a rare situation where H-shares are more expensive than A-shares [3][4] - Key questions addressed include the reasons behind the increasing A to H listings, the premium of H-shares over A-shares, and the implications for the Hong Kong market in both the short and long term [3] Macroeconomy - The article highlights three confusions regarding the RMB exchange rate, noting the recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD despite advancements in China's manufacturing technology and efficiency [7] - It points out the historical high gap between the nominal effective exchange rate and the real effective exchange rate of the RMB, as well as the unprecedented divergence between the nominal effective exchange rate and the USD exchange rate in recent years [7] - The article suggests that the RMB may have short-term appreciation potential against the USD due to unfulfilled depreciation pressures on the USD and the accumulation of funds awaiting settlement from China's current account [7]

Core Viewpoint - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) closed at 7.1947 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 157 points from the previous night’s close [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Exchange Rate Movement** - The CNY experienced a depreciation against the USD, closing at 7.1947 [1] - This represents a drop of 157 points compared to the previous trading session [1] - **Trading Volume** - The trading volume for the CNY was reported at 36.657 billion USD [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The RMB is expected to run strongly. In the short term, its trend is stronger than market expectations, mainly driven by the US dollar's correction and settlement. Despite rising tariff disturbances, the RMB's sensitivity to external trade uncertainties has decreased, and the exchange rate is generally running strongly [41][43] Summary by Directory 1. Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility of the USD/CNY option is declining. The 3 - month implied volatility curve shows that the Call - end and Put - end volatilities are equal, indicating a weakened market expectation for future USD/CNY volatility [4] - Regarding the term structure, data on the New Exchange's USD/CNY futures premium/discount, bank forward premium/discount, and US - China interest rate differentials for different time periods (this week, last week, last month) are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [8] Policy Observation - The policy counter - cyclical factor hovers around 0% and shows fluctuations. The 3 - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread shows a fluctuating trend without a clear unilateral trend [10] 2. Fundamentals and Views Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Economy** - Fed's interest rate cut and liquidity: By 2025, the Fed's interest rate cut is priced at 49.4bp, and the pricing of the US interest rate cut has declined. The TGA account balance on May 28 was $436.6 billion, and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $173.6 billion. Multiple Fed officials are concerned that Trump's tariff policies may cause inflation and impact the economy and employment [18] - The risk of economic downturn is rising. Employment is mixed (US non - farm payrolls in April decreased moderately, and the unemployment rate remained flat), inflation is falling, and the economy is marginally declining (fiscal spending has decreased, the April economic sentiment has declined, and retail sales in April have rebounded) [20] - The 30 - year US Treasury yield has exceeded 5%. Factors include the Fed Chairman's adjustment of the policy framework, the downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating, the continuous rolling over of US Treasury bonds, the possible arrival of the "X - date" in August, and Trump's tax - cut bill [24][28] - **China's Economy** - The economic structure is differentiated. In April, the overall data faced external pressure, but there may be a new round of "rush to export" under the easing of tariffs [35] - In May, the national PMI was 49.5, with a month - on - month value of 0.5, a year - on - year value of 0, and a difference of 0.2 from the recent average. Production increased by 0.9 to 50.7, and new orders increased by 0.6 to 49.8, with production higher than orders. Among different industries, intermediate goods, equipment, and consumer goods industries rebounded, while raw materials declined [37] Tariff Events - **Tariff Negotiations** - In the latest week, there have been many major events in the US tariff field. The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff executive order was over - stepped, but Trump also proposed to increase steel tariffs. The US government has requested countries to submit trade negotiation plans by June 4th [21] - Trade negotiations among 15 key countries and regions show a differentiated pattern. For example, the UK and the US have signed an agreement, China - US negotiations have faced new discriminatory measures from the US, and India may be the next to reach an agreement with the US [21] - **Possible Negotiation Framework: "Tariff + Quota"** - India has proposed various tariff adjustment and market access plans, such as significantly reducing the average tariff difference with the US and implementing zero - tariff arrangements for some products [23] - The UK and the US have reached a principle - based framework agreement, including tariff adjustments for various products such as beef, automobiles, and steel, as well as cooperation in other aspects like intellectual property and defense [23] - China and the US have agreed to adjust tariffs and cancel some counter - measures after the Geneva economic and trade talks [23] Other Events - **The "Big and Beautiful" Bill** - It has been submitted to the Senate, and there are increasing differences within the Republican Party. The bill includes tax reform, medical reform, immigration policy, defense budget, energy policy, and education and welfare reform, which will have various economic impacts such as reducing federal tax revenue and increasing the deficit [29][30][31] - **US May "Rush to Import"** - The performance of the manufacturing sub - items in May was average. Output increased by 1.4% (previous value - 4.3%), self - owned inventory decreased by 4.1% (previous value - 2.6%), new export orders decreased by 3% (previous value - 6.5%), imports decreased by 7.2% (previous value - 3%), and new orders increased by 0.4% (previous value - 3.7%) [32] 3. Risk Assessment - The range of the basis fluctuation of the USD/CNY futures from May 2022 to the present (nearly 3 years) is between - 1100 and 900 [46]

Core Insights - The offshore (CNH) and onshore (CNY) RMB appreciated against the USD in May, with the average daily price difference (absolute value of CNY-CNH) decreasing by 108 basis points to 62 basis points [1][3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index and the indices referencing the BIS and SDR currency baskets showed mixed results, with the former two declining and the latter increasing [1][3] - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds decreased, with 88 bonds issued amounting to 34.682 billion, a 3.8% decrease from the previous month [5] Offshore RMB Deposits in Hong Kong and Taiwan - As of April 2025, offshore RMB deposits in Hong Kong increased by 7.4% to 1,030.895 billion, while Taiwan's deposits rose by 1.6% to 112.725 billion [2] Offshore RMB Foreign Exchange Market - On May 30, the CNH/USD exchange rate closed at 7.2065, appreciating by 0.87%, while the CNY/USD rate closed at 7.1953, appreciating by 0.94% [3] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index stood at 95.96, down 0.25%, with the BIS index at 101.58, down 0.50%, and the SDR index at 90.93, up 0.54% [3] Offshore RMB Derivatives Market - The 1-year CNH swap points settled at -1846 basis points, down 163 basis points, while the CNY 1-year swap points were at -2060 basis points, down 107 basis points [4] - The trading volume for USD/CNH futures on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange reached 2.4909 million contracts, a 13.0% increase, while the open interest decreased by 21.0% to 31,000 contracts [4] Offshore RMB Bond Market - The offshore RMB bond market saw a total of 88 bonds issued in May, a decrease of 7 from the previous month, with a total issuance amount of 34.682 billion [5] Offshore RMB Money Market - As of the end of May, the CNH HIBOR rates for overnight, 7-day, 3-month, and 1-year were 2.0442%, 1.7946%, 1.7697%, and 1.9403%, reflecting mixed changes [6] - The average interest rate differentials between offshore and onshore borrowing rates increased for overnight and 7-day terms, while decreasing for 3-month and 1-year terms [6] Dynamics of Foreign Institutions in Domestic Interbank Market - By the end of May, the number of foreign institutions participating in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market reached 232, an increase of 1 from the previous month [7] - The total number of foreign institutions and their products in the domestic interbank currency market rose to 5723, with various categories showing slight increases [7] Trading Volume in Domestic Interbank Market - In May, the total trading volume of foreign institutions in the domestic interbank foreign exchange market was 27,551.68 billion, a decrease of 17.1% [8] - The trading volume in the domestic interbank money market increased by 18.1% to 8,680.54 billion [8]

Group 1: Macro Strategy Insights - The report indicates that exchange rates and non-tariff barriers may become more critical tools in trade conflicts, potentially replacing tariffs as the primary means of trade engagement [1][9][10] - Domestic foreign trade enterprises believe that due to fundamental conflicts, the Sino-US trade negotiations may experience significant ups and downs, necessitating ongoing risk management for exports to the US [1][9] - If tariffs fail to achieve their intended competitive goals, the US government may resort to non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation, drawing parallels to historical trade competition phases [1][9] Group 2: Currency and Economic Indicators - The report suggests that the RMB exchange rate may gradually decline to the range of 7.17-7.18, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation between 7.15 and 7.22 [11][12] - The ECI index indicates a slight recovery in supply and demand, but the manufacturing PMI remains in a contraction zone, reflecting weak overall economic momentum [13] - The report highlights that the US trade deficit has narrowed significantly, with April imports showing a historic decline of 19.8%, indicating a slowdown in the "import rush" effect driven by tariff policies [16][17] Group 3: Fixed Income and Structured Financing - The report notes that the valuation of city investment ABS is less correlated with duration compared to credit bonds, suggesting that shorter-duration ABS may offer better risk-return profiles [3][4] - The weighted average coupon rate of city investment ABS is approximately 3.25%, which is lower than the overall market for credit bonds, indicating a favorable financing environment for structured products [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of the quality of underlying assets and the issuing entity's qualifications in determining the valuation of city investment ABS [4][18] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Pinduoduo's Q1 2025 performance fell short of expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting a strategic focus on ecosystem investment for sustainable growth [6] - Gilead Sciences' ASC40 acne treatment achieved all primary and secondary endpoints in Phase III trials, demonstrating superior efficacy compared to FDA-approved alternatives [7] - The report on SOTON Robotics indicates a significant drop in revenue for Q1 2025, but an increase in gross margin, suggesting potential for recovery through new product launches and market expansion [8]

Core Viewpoint - The onshore Chinese yuan (CNY) closed at 7.1790 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 30 points compared to the previous night’s close, with a trading volume of 48.105 billion USD [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Currency Performance** - The onshore CNY experienced a depreciation against the USD, closing at 7.1790 [1] - The decline was quantified as a drop of 30 points from the previous night’s trading session [1] - **Trading Volume** - The trading volume for the CNY was reported at 48.105 billion USD [1]

100欧元 820.45人民币 100日元 5.0352人民币 100港元 91.605人民币 100英镑 973.23人民币 100澳元 466.14人民币 100新西兰元 432.9人民币 100新加坡元 558.39人民币 100瑞士法郎 877.93人民币 100加元 524.91人民币 100人民币 112.5澳门元 100人民币 59.078马来西亚林吉特 100人民币 1104.43俄罗斯卢布 100人民币 248.22南非兰特 100人民币 18981韩元 100人民币 51.177阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币 52.24沙特里亚尔 100人民币 4915.83匈牙利福林 100人民币 52.138波兰兹罗提 100人民币 90.94丹麦克朗 100人民币 133.43瑞典克朗 100人民币 140.77挪威克朗 100人民币 546.961土耳其里拉 100人民币 267.35墨西哥比索 100人民币 453.96泰铢（完） 新华社北京6月5日电 中国外汇交易中心6月5日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、澳 元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳门元、林吉特、卢布、兰特、韩元、 ...

2025年6月5日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1865，下调（人民币升值）21点； 欧元/人民币报8.2045，上调192点； 港元/人民币报0.91605，下调3点； 英镑/人民币报9.7323，下调1点； 澳元/人民币报4.6614，上调101点； 加元/人民币报5.2491，上调30点； 100日元/人民币报5.0352，上调375点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.0443，上调547点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3290，上调87点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59078，上调5.9点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7793，上调401点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5839，上调51点。 ...

2025年6月4日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1886，上调（人民币贬值）17点； 欧元/人民币报8.1853，下调316点； 港元/人民币报0.91635，上调1.8点； 英镑/人民币报9.7324，上调74点； 澳元/人民币报4.6513，下调79点； 加元/人民币报5.2461，上调142点； 100日元/人民币报4.9977，下调375点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报10.9896，下调267点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3203，下调139点； 人民币/林吉特报0.59019，下调16点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7392，下调497点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5788，下调72点。 ...