US Treasury debt maturing in five years has rarely been this expensive relative to other maturities except when the Federal Reserve has dropped interest rates to zero, according to interest-rate strategists at Goldman Sachs https://t.co/EHNJ6l8oxd ...

company's CEO, to be able to get from the Trump administration. All right. Let's continue to talk a bit about macro and tariffs and all other things.Jim O'Neill, former UK Treasury minister, former Goldman Sachs Asset Management chairman, joins us now. Why don't we start off on tariffs particularly on this news in terms of India. You know Jim I mean it's a moving target on so many different countries, whether it's India or Brazil or others.What are your latest thoughts. >> Well, it seems to be having a go a ...

Fed Expected To Cut Interest Rates In September https://t.co/e8INl5jN0i https://t.co/q8OmOiRvKP ...

Market Sentiment & Positioning - US equity market is near its highs, but investor sentiment isn't extremely bullish or bearish [1][2] - Broker allocation recommendations for stocks are at 56%, suggesting investors are gradually entering the market with significant cash reserves [3] - The market is primed to expect negative events due to strong returns against a challenging macro environment [10] Monetary Policy & Investment Strategy - Potential Fed rate cuts could drive rotation from cash to yieldier equities in the S&P 500 [4][5] - Stocks are favored over bonds due to the current environment [5] - Real returns on cash and bonds are not favorable compared to inflation [5] Corporate Performance & Economic Activity - Companies have demonstrated the ability to navigate policy uncertainty, maintaining transparency and handling tariffs [6][7] - Companies delayed, rather than cancelled projects due to tariffs, indicating pent-up economic activity [8] - Wage inflation may be cooling, which is beneficial for corporate profits [10] - S&P 500 companies are well-capitalized with long-term, fixed-rate, low levels of debt, resulting in healthy balance sheets [11] Risks & Opportunities - Country risk remains a primary concern, while equity risk premium is relatively low [6] - Over-optimism and high capital expenditure in AI sector could lead to disappointments [12] - A 5% to 10% pullback is likely, but a bare market and recession are not the base case [13] - Potential economic boom driven by pent-up capital spending on infrastructure, power grid, and construction in the US [14]

Market Overview - The housing market has been sluggish due to high prices and interest rates [1] Regional Performance - Home sales have been strong in 10 ZIP codes across the Northeast and Midwest [1]

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Recent data strengthens the case for future interest rate cuts, contingent on controlled inflation and potential labor market weakening [1][2] - The market widely anticipates interest rate cuts [2] - Concerns arise that President Trump's rationale for rate cuts, aiming to lower the cost of US debt, could compromise the Fed's independence [3][4] Current Economic State - The economy is currently in a "pretty good" state [7] - Initial GDP estimates for the year were 1.5%-2% growth [7] - S&P 500 companies experienced 6.5% revenue growth, with 80% exceeding estimates for the quarter [8] - Companies are increasing capital expenditure at a robust pace of 5% compared to last year [8] - The consumer remains strong, supported by positive consumer confidence indices [8][9] - AI is positively impacting company earnings [9] Future Economic Challenges & Opportunities - Tariffs pose a significant headwind, potentially impacting company margins as they may not continue to absorb increased costs [10][11] - Companies initially avoided immediate price increases, learning from the pandemic experience where aggressive pricing led to volume declines [12][13] - AI is already contributing positively to GDP, estimated at 0.25%-0.5% [14] - M&A activity is currently on the upswing and expected to continue in the next two quarters, potentially reaching $3.3 trillion this year [14][15] - Regulatory environment remains closer to the Biden administration [17] Banking & Media Sectors - The regulatory environment may improve for certain industries, particularly financial institutions, potentially leading to banking deals [17][18][19] - The banking sector is fragmented, with a compelling reason to responsibly have another 1 or 2 big banks [18] - Media industry consolidation will continue due to the impact of non-traditional players [19][20]

BREAKING🇺🇸 FED WILL CUT RATES IN SEPTEMBERODDS ARE NOW 94.1% 🔥 https://t.co/roaznsYVDx ...

Market Overview & Investment Strategy - The market experienced profit-taking after a recent rally, but negativity might be costing investors money [1][2] - The relentless drumbeat of negative news, particularly regarding tariffs, makes people feel insecure [5][6] - Companies are generally mitigating tariffs effectively [16] - There's an aversion to investing when stocks are on sale, even though companies are performing well [21][22] Company Specific Analysis - **Cotera Energy (Oil & Gas):** Despite strong free cash flow yield (better than any segment in the entire market), the stock struggles due to being an oil and gas company [29][32] - Cotera Energy's natural gas portfolio, particularly in northeast Pennsylvania, is underestimated and offers high returns on capital [34][35] - Cotera Energy is prioritizing debt reduction with a plan to retire a $1 billion term note, after which they will resume aggressive buybacks [47] - **Spotify (Music Streaming):** Despite a recent stock drop due to weaker-than-expected ad revenue growth (up 5% on a constant currency basis), the company's user base is strong, with 696 million monthly active users (up 11% year-over-year) and 276 million premium subscribers (up 12% year-over-year) [52][55][60] - Spotify is increasing premium subscription prices in several regions outside the US [67] - Spotify has increased its buyback authorization from $1 billion to $2 billion, with $1.9 billion still available [70] - **Mountain (Ad Tech):** The company reported better-than-expected revenue and earnings after going public at $16 in late May, running to $31 [80][81] - 97% of Mountain's customers have never advertised on TV before [85][86] - **Palantir (Software/AI):** Palantir's valuation looks high based on traditional metrics (over 200 times next year's earnings estimates), but it scores highly on the "Rule of 40" with a revenue growth of 48% and an adjusted operating margin of 46%, yielding a score of 94 [108][109][110] - Palantir had $1 billion in revenue this quarter [111]

As speculation mounts that the BOJ will raise interest rates later this year, there’s a growing risk that required payments to its deposit facility could put added strain on the bank’s finances https://t.co/7J4HJanEbo ...

And joining me now is the White House uh is from the White House rather is one of the president's top economic adviserss, Peter Navaro. He is a senior counselor to the president for trade and manufacturing. Mr.. Navaro, thank you so much for your time here on Meet the Press. Now, >> Gabe, nice to see you, sir. >> Um Mr.. Navaro, yesterday we talked to the previous commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, William Beach. He he was appointed and served in the first Trump administration. I want to play s ...