Group 1 - The recent strengthening of the RMB exchange rate is attributed to two main factors: the depreciation of the USD and the implementation of proactive domestic macroeconomic policies [3] - The USD index has shown a downward trend this year, dropping over 8% from a high of 109 to below 100 [3] - Future RMB exchange rate movements are expected to be influenced by the progress of China-US trade talks and the USD exchange rate [3] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the Chinese stock market, with an expected improvement in corporate earnings and increased foreign capital inflow [4] - The report estimates that the RMB/USD exchange rate could reach 7.20, 7.10, and 7.00 in the next 3, 6, and 12 months, respectively, indicating a potential 3% appreciation over the next year [4] - Other foreign institutions, such as UBS, also express optimism about the Chinese stock market, noting that the MSCI China Index is undervalued compared to historical averages [5]

近期，国际投资者对中国资产的关注度持续升温。多家外资机构密集举办"中国主题"论坛，参与规模较往年显著 增长。第28届瑞银亚洲投资论坛吸引超过3500名投资者报名，较去年增加20%以上。摩根大通第21届全球中国峰 会汇聚来自全球33个国家和地区、1400多家企业的超过2800名参会者。这些数据反映出全球机构投资者对中国市 场的参与热情正在回升。 国际资本对中国资产的配置热情显著升温。被动资金持续涌入A股市场，对冲基金对中概股配置逐渐提升。摩根 士丹利监测数据显示，2月1日至4月2日期间，约200亿美元的被动资金流入中国股市。经历4月中旬的短暂流出 后，4月下旬开始重新流入中国股市。 人民币汇率表现为外资机构看好中国资产提供重要支撑。5月26日，在岸和离岸人民币汇率双双升破7.17，创下自 2024年12月以来新高。自4月初以来，人民币对美元升值了约1%。 人民币走强的支持因素包括中国出口行业竞争力增强和多样化发展，人民币在实际有效汇率基础上可能被低估， 以及美元整体疲软产生的从美元资产分散投资需求。国际投行预计美元兑人民币在未来3个月、6个月和12个月将 分别达到7.20、7.10和7.00。 历史经验显示，当 ...

在岸人民币兑美元5月28日16:30收盘报7.1907，较上一交易日上涨42点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of the RMB exchange rate is highlighted amidst ongoing global trade uncertainties, with the RMB recovering the 7.2 threshold and showing strong performance against the USD [1][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of May 28, the onshore and offshore USD/RMB exchange rates hovered around 7.195 and 7.188, with the offshore rate briefly surpassing the onshore midpoint, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards RMB appreciation [1][2]. - The offshore RMB rate reached as high as 7.1703 on May 27, exceeding the onshore midpoint by over 170 basis points, reflecting a change in trading atmosphere [2]. Market Sentiment and Investment Behavior - There is a noticeable decrease in the trend of overseas investment institutions shorting the RMB, with many hedge funds no longer borrowing offshore RMB for short-selling [2][6]. - Large overseas asset management institutions are gradually increasing their holdings in domestic financial assets, boosting demand for RMB [2][6]. - The expectation of a surge in Chinese exports to the U.S. from May to July is driving optimism about the RMB's strength, with predictions of high trade surpluses supporting the currency [2][8]. Forward Contracts and Speculation - Some overseas investment funds are purchasing three-month call options on the RMB, betting on significant appreciation due to favorable trade surplus performance [3][8]. - The market anticipates that the USD/RMB exchange rate will rise to around 7.14 in three months, which is lower than the expectations of some overseas funds [3]. Dollar Depreciation Expectations - The ongoing trade tensions and the potential for U.S. economic recession are leading to increased bearish sentiment towards the USD, with speculators holding significant short positions [4][5]. - The expectation of continued USD depreciation is influencing the foreign exchange market, shifting sentiment towards RMB appreciation [5][6]. Impact of Chinese Exports - The surge in orders from U.S. retailers for Chinese goods is expected to enhance the RMB's valuation, as companies prepare to meet increased demand [7][8]. - The anticipated high trade surplus from May to July is prompting many overseas investment institutions to adjust their RMB valuation models, predicting a potential approach to the 7.0 mark [8][9]. A-Share Market Implications - The strengthening of the RMB is expected to positively impact the A-share market, with predictions that a 1% appreciation in the RMB could lead to a 3% increase in Chinese stocks [9]. - The positive cycle of RMB appreciation attracting foreign investment into A-shares is becoming a significant topic among emerging market funds [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has garnered market attention, with the onshore and offshore RMB breaking the 7.17 mark, reaching a new high since December 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - Since May, the RMB has shown a continuous upward trend, with both onshore and offshore rates increasing by over 1% [1][2]. - The RMB's strength is attributed to three main factors: easing concerns over US-China trade tensions, a weakening dollar, and a resilient domestic economic foundation [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its 12-month RMB/USD target to 7.0, indicating a projected 3% appreciation over the next year [2]. Group 2: Market Implications - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the Chinese stock market, with a potential 3% increase in stock prices for every 1% appreciation of the RMB against the dollar [4]. - Increased foreign investment in Chinese assets is noted, with a net increase of $10.9 billion in domestic bonds in April, indicating strong foreign interest [4]. - The RMB's strengthening is anticipated to enhance the earnings outlook for companies and attract more foreign capital into the Chinese stock market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has released the market exchange rates for the Chinese Yuan against various currencies as of May 27, indicating the current valuation of the Yuan in the foreign exchange market [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rates - The exchange rate for 100 US dollars is 718.76 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Euros is 818.49 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Japanese Yen is 5.0349 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Canadian Dollars is 523.17 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Hong Kong Dollars is 91.723 Chinese Yuan [2] - The exchange rate for 100 British Pounds is 974.72 Chinese Yuan [2] - The exchange rate for 100 Australian Dollars is 465.88 Chinese Yuan [2] - The exchange rate for 100 New Zealand Dollars is 430.85 Chinese Yuan [2] - The exchange rate for 100 Singapore Dollars is 559.74 Chinese Yuan [2] - The exchange rate for 100 Swiss Francs is 875.77 Chinese Yuan [2] Group 2: Additional Currency Exchange Rates - The exchange rate for 100 Malaysian Ringgit is 58.67 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Russian Rubles is 1112.46 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 South African Rand is 248.26 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 South Korean Won is 19054 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 UAE Dirhams is 51.123 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Saudi Riyals is 52.198 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Hungarian Forints is 4927.9 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Polish Zlotys is 51.856 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Danish Krone is 91.12 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Swedish Krona is 132.39 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Norwegian Krone is 140.5 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Turkish Lira is 542.733 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Mexican Pesos is 267.83 Chinese Yuan [1] - The exchange rate for 100 Thai Baht is 453.54 Chinese Yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) positively impacts the Chinese stock market, with a 1% increase in RMB leading to a 3% rise in Chinese stocks, driven by corporate prospects and foreign capital inflows [1] - Historical trends show that during periods of RMB appreciation, foreign investors tend to adopt a positive stance towards Chinese stocks, particularly favoring core assets in sectors like consumer discretionary, real estate, and brokerage firms [1] - The recent strength of the RMB is attributed to the central bank's proactive measures to stabilize the exchange rate and the overall market confidence, preventing capital outflows [1] Group 2 - The offshore RMB reached its lowest point at 7.42 on April 8, but has since appreciated to 7.17, marking a rise of 2500 basis points or 3% [2] - While the RMB shows potential for further appreciation, the central bank aims to maintain a stable exchange rate to avoid excessive gains that could harm export-oriented businesses [2] - The current upward potential for the RMB appears limited, suggesting that when it approaches the 7.1 to 7 range, the appreciation may pause [3] Group 3 - Despite the RMB's appreciation, the A-share market has not shown significant movement, remaining within a trading range, while the Hong Kong stock market has seen a substantial increase of over 20% since April 8 [6] - The disparity in performance between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks indicates that the latter benefits more from RMB appreciation due to its globalized market and easier access for foreign capital [6][7] - The conclusion emphasizes the importance of focusing on investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks post-adjustment, while considering synchronized investments in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks for potentially greater returns [8]

● 本报记者 连润 5月26日，人民币对美元汇率中间价创出4月3日以来新高，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中一度升破 7.17元。拉长时间看，5月以来，人民币汇率整体保持强势，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率均涨超1%。 专家表示，近期，影响人民币汇率的内外部因素均出现一定的积极变化，预计短期内人民币汇率将保持 温和偏强走势，这也有望提振人民币资产的整体吸引力。 "美元走势偏弱，我国经济保持韧性，4月外汇市场供求关系继续改善，跨境资金管理水平提高，使得人 民币汇率得到有力支撑。"中金公司外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳说。 合理均衡 双向波动 "人民币对美元汇率受益于偏弱的美元支持，短期内或将保持温和偏强的走势。"李刘阳说。 王青认为，经贸形势、美元走势等多种因素将继续影响人民币汇率走势。"伴随特朗普政府内外政策对 美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元还会承受一定的压力，人民币贬值压力最大的阶段可能已经过去。"王青 说，未来人民币汇率走势可能呈现双向波动，在主要货币中走势将更为稳定。 值得一提的是，人民币汇率呈稳定偏强走势有望提升人民币资产吸引力。高盛日前发布研报称，得益于 人民币对美元汇率走强，其维持对中国股票的"增持"立场。该机构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, attributing it to various factors including positive developments in US-China trade talks and a general depreciation of the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On May 26, both onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates surpassed 7.17, marking the highest level since November 2024, with the onshore rate closing at 7.1843, up 52 points from the previous trading day [1]. - The RMB's midpoint rate against the US dollar was significantly raised to 7.1833, an increase of 86 points, the largest adjustment since January of the same year [1][2]. - In May, the onshore RMB appreciated by 906 basis points, while the offshore RMB rose by over 1,000 points [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The depreciation of the US dollar has been a key driver for the appreciation of non-USD currencies, including the RMB, with the dollar index dropping by 0.84% in May [2]. - Concerns over the US fiscal health and the potential for increased government debt have contributed to the dollar's decline, particularly following the passage of Trump's fiscal bill [2]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies, such as interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, have bolstered the RMB's resilience against external fluctuations [2][3]. Group 3: Implications of RMB Appreciation - The appreciation of the RMB can enhance its attractiveness and reflect market confidence in the Chinese economy, potentially benefiting the stock market [3]. - However, a stronger RMB may reduce the competitiveness of Chinese exports, which could negatively impact domestic employment [3]. - It is suggested that maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate is crucial while expanding domestic demand and reducing reliance on exports [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook for RMB - Future RMB movements will largely depend on the progress of US-China trade negotiations and the trajectory of the US dollar [4]. - The article indicates that the most significant pressure for RMB depreciation may have passed, with expectations of a more stable RMB compared to other major currencies [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is driven by both domestic and international factors, with the RMB reaching its highest level since November 2024, reflecting market confidence in China's economic stability and growth prospects [1][3][4]. Domestic Factors - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, exceeding expectations, which has bolstered investor confidence in the RMB [1][4]. - Continuous implementation of policies aimed at supporting consumption and effective investment has contributed to a stable macroeconomic environment [4][7]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports economic recovery while managing liquidity [7][8]. International Factors - The downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's and concerns over the US fiscal deficit have weakened the US dollar, providing room for the RMB to appreciate [1][5][6]. - Market apprehensions regarding US economic prospects, exacerbated by poor results from US Treasury auctions and trade policy disputes, have led to a decline in the dollar index [1][5][6]. Market Trends - As of May 26, the offshore RMB reached a peak of 7.1614 against the dollar, marking a 0.10% increase and a 1.45% appreciation over the past 20 days [3][4]. - The dollar index experienced a drop of approximately 0.41% on the same day, indicating a new downward trend for the dollar [5]. Future Outlook - Experts suggest that the RMB may experience short-term fluctuations around a new equilibrium, influenced by US tariff policies and domestic countermeasures [1][9]. - Long-term projections indicate that as China continues to advance its high-quality development initiatives, the RMB is expected to gain a more significant role in the global monetary system [1][9][10].