It's time now for today's strategy session. Riskoff sentiment gripping today's trading action as stocks open in the red, but market momentum holding up some stocks trading near record highs. Can the market continue its rally despite a growing wall of worry for investors.Joining us now, we've got Kenny Pulkari, who is the Slate Stone Wealth chief market strategist. Kenny, one of the things that you and I were talking about in the break and and perhaps is within that wall of worry to a certain extent is the r ...

Geopolitical Risk and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is a key factor influencing market reactions, with oil prices and defense stocks showing sensitivity to Middle East developments [1][2] - Market reactions to geopolitical news have become more subtle compared to previous months, indicating a shift from emotional responses to a "buy the news" mentality [2] - Defense stocks, such as RTX, Northrop Grumman, and Halliburton, experienced pre-market gains, suggesting a defensive trade strategy among investors amid geopolitical uncertainty [3][4] - The recent surge in defense stocks is viewed as a knee-jerk reaction to news, with historical trends indicating that such moves may not have long-term impacts [5][6] - Secular trends support defense stocks due to increased defense spending discussions in DC and NATO, but short-term movements are often knee-jerk reactions [7] Tech Sector Performance - The XLK tech ETF, heavily weighted by mega-cap tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, hit all-time highs, with some components like IBM and Palantir also reaching new highs [8] - Investors tend to gravitate towards tech during technical rallies, viewing it as a defensive sector that performs well in both good and bad times [8][9] - Valuations in the tech sector are extended compared to value sectors and international markets, suggesting a need to consider fundamentals [9] Dollar Weakness and Earnings - A weaker dollar benefits multinational companies' earnings through translation effects and competitive advantages [11][12][13] - Small-cap companies with a domestic focus may not benefit as much from a weaker dollar [11] - The reasons behind dollar weakness are more important than the weakness itself; government actions like selling treasuries or punitive tariffs could negatively impact the dollar [14][15] - A slight dollar weakness from elevated levels can be beneficial for earnings and reflect a leveling out of domestic and foreign earnings [15]

Market Volatility & Geopolitical Landscape - The market is experiencing volatility due to recent geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, but not as significantly as the tariff impacts earlier in the year [2] - Investors and advisors are becoming more accustomed to increased volatility [3] - Increased interest in fixed income ETFs, especially short-term ones, is observed as investors seek income with lower risk [3] - Broadly diversified ETFs, like the Vanguard 500 ETF, are attracting inflows, indicating investors are using sell-offs as buying opportunities [3][4] Tech Investment & Safe Haven Status - Tech is heavily weighted in broadly diversified large-cap ETFs, suggesting many investors include tech and AI as part of a broader portfolio [5] - Technology was considered a safe haven during the COVID selloff in 2020 [6] - Investors are now showing interest in more traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples [7] - Large-cap tech is still seen as a relative safe haven, but investors also seek diversification with traditional defensive sectors [7] AI Revolution & Tech Valuation - Focusing solely on valuation can lead to missing transformational tech stocks [9] - The market is believed to be underestimating the growth potential of the AI revolution in tech [9] - Geopolitical events are viewed as opportunities to acquire tech stocks at lower prices [9]

Well, for more on how all of this could impact the markets going forward, let's bring in Wilmington Trust investment advisors Tony Roth and innovator ETS chief investment strategist Tim Urbanowitz. Guys, good afternoon. Uh Tim, major averages have been holding steady despite uh this geopolitical conflict.S&P around 6,000. I know folks don't want to panic sell, but should they keep buying here. Well, John, you definitely don't want to panic sell.And really the the move higher that we saw today is really text ...

Oil Price Scenarios - In an extreme scenario involving a complete disruption to Iranian oil supply and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could temporarily rise above $200 per barrel [2] - The industry's base case suggests a risk premium pushing Brent crude prices into the low $80s [4] - A scenario involving Israeli attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure could push prices towards $100, reflecting further risk premium due to actual supply disruptions [5] Geopolitical Risk and Market Dynamics - The market's direction in the next two weeks depends on whether there is de-escalation, potentially with US diplomatic involvement, or escalation involving attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure [5] - A de-escalation scenario could lead to a decay of the risk premium over time, similar to other geopolitical risk events where initial spikes subside without significant supply disruptions [5][6] - The sustainability of extreme oil price increases is questionable, even if they occur temporarily [2][3]

Geopolitical Impact on Markets - Israel launched a targeted military operation against Iran, escalating tensions in the Middle East [1][5] - Iran retaliated with drones, leading to fears of a wider regional conflict [1][6] - The U S stated it was not involved in the strikes, while Iran holds Washington responsible [2][51] - Global leaders are urging de-escalation and diplomatic solutions [49] Oil Market Fluctuations - Oil prices surged, with Brent crude spiking 13% initially and settling at approximately 7% higher [3][51][66] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for nearly 1/5 of seaborne crude, faces potential disruption risks [24] - Iran's oil exports, around 17 million barrels per day, are now in question [22] - The market has not priced in the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, and an attack on a single oil tanker could drastically change industry flows [25] Financial Market Reactions - NASDAQ was down 15% [3] - 10-year Treasury yields decreased by one basis point [4] - Gold rose by 11% as investors sought safe-haven assets [4] - The Euro weakened by 05% compared to the dollar [4] Potential Trade Implications - A wider conflict could strain the global trading system, affecting shipping lanes through the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and Suez Canal [45] - Increased bottlenecks in the shipping system could lead to higher costs and inflation [46] - The conflict could impact negotiations between the U S and China, particularly regarding energy exports like LNG and LPG [32][33] Airline and Defense Industry Impact - Airlines are expected to underperform due to higher oil prices and potential airspace closures in the Middle East [38][107] - Defense stocks, such as RTX and Lockheed, are gaining due to increased geopolitical tensions [39][108]

that Israel's attacks on Iran are ongoing, hitting an airport in one of the country's most northern major cities. Thank you for joining us. Uh just for edification of the audience, you're the head of political analysis at Pangia Policy Advisory.Really great to have you on a morning like this. What do you make of the fact that Israel's attacks, they are still ongoing. We did hear from Benjamin Netanyahu saying that basically it could take days or weeks and that Israel would continue, but what do you make of ...

Geopolitical Risks & Market Impact - Conflict erupts in the Middle East as Israel retaliates against Iran, launching over 100 drones [1][28] - Oil prices surge due to fears of a wider war, with Brent crude rising significantly [2][3] - Global equity markets react negatively, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures and S&P futures down by 15% [3] - Market anticipates potential for further escalation and broader damage beyond Israel and Iran [14] - A worst-case scenario could see oil prices rise by $30 per barrel due to escalations [12] - Market considers the potential for terrorist attacks and attacks by proxies in other parts of the world [14] - Market participants are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, as a blockade could cause a squeeze in oil prices [11] - Israel intercepts drones in Jordanian and Syrian airspace, highlighting control of airspace [87] Aviation Industry - Air India Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashes shortly after takeoff, killing all but one of the 242 people on board [2][21] - The crash marks the deadliest aviation accident in over a decade [3] - Investigators recover one of the black boxes from the crash site [20][22] - Boeing CEO cancels appearance at the Paris Air Show amid the crisis [24] - Airlines prepare to reroute flights due to airspace closures in the Middle East [148] Currency & Bond Market - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reacts positively [3] - The U S dollar is reacting like a safe haven rising alongside the equity market [19] - The Israeli Shekel is trading 2% weaker versus the U S dollar [34] - Gold approaches a record high as another safe haven bid [34] - German 10-year yield down around five basis points, so outperforming the bid into fixed income [60]

Geopolitical Risk & Market Impact - Israel launched Operation Rising Line, targeting Iranian nuclear sites, escalating Middle East tensions [1][62] - Oil prices surged as much as 13% due to fears of a wider war impacting a third of global crude production [2][63] - Brent crude rose nearly 9%, trading around $75.47-$75.48 per barrel [3] - S&P futures fell over 1.5%, reflecting a risk-off mood in the markets [4][120] - Gold prices increased over 1%, nearing record highs as investors sought safe-haven assets [5][47] Potential Economic Consequences - A sustained rise in energy prices could lead to higher transport costs in Asia, limiting central banks' ability to cut rates and support domestic demand [51] - The Strait of Hormuz, through which a quarter of global oil output passes, is a potential target, threatening to cause oil prices to skyrocket [30][44] - The US dollar experienced a knee-jerk jump due to risk aversion, but its strength is unlikely to last due to underlying macro weaknesses and anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [67][69] Strategic Analysis & Regional Response - Israel believes Iran was rapidly moving towards weaponization, potentially building nine atom bombs in the coming months, justifying the operation [13][14] - The US administration signaled a "proceed with caution" approach, allowing Israel to take the risk in hopes of breaking the diplomatic stalemate [24][25] - Oman condemned Israel's actions, and Gulf states are likely to distance themselves, emphasizing neutrality and signaling to Iran they have no interest in escalation [32][33][34] - Iran's armed forces chief of staff was reportedly killed in the strikes [37] - Saudi Arabia condemned Israel's attack on Iran, describing the incident as blatant [74]

After a lackluster start to the year, are we approaching a bigger breakout for the energy trade. Guy, I'm going to start with you. When you look at those charts, does it make you feel like it's only higher from here.First of all, welcome Courtney. It's always great having you. Number one.Number two, there have been many times that I've personally been faked out to the upside on these crude moves specifically on whatever this is, geopolitical risk or concern. But in terms of the stocks you just mentioned, ye ...