Market Trends - Russian crude oil is being offered to Indian buyers at lower prices due to EU sanctions and potential US penalties [1] Supply and Demand - Demand outlook is clouded by EU sanctions and US threats of penalties [1]

On Ukraine's front line, twisted wreckage shows sanctions haven't yet stopped Russia https://t.co/7pweeqtocF ...

Trade Policy & Tariffs - The U S president imposed an extra 25% tariff on India over its purchase of Russian oil [1] - Tariffs are viewed as a universal problem solver by the president, which is unusual in US trade policy [2] - Imposing a broad 25% tariff on India is strange, especially if the issue is solely about oil imports from Russia [2] - The president's use of tariffs to solve personal or economic problems creates uncertainty [3] - Tariffs are considered self-harm because they hurt American consumers and producers [5][6] Sanctions vs Tariffs - Sanctions require consistency and allied cooperation, which may not align with the president's go-it-alone attitude [4] - Sanctions differ from tariffs as they are not an exercise in self-harm [5][6] International Relations & Trade Deals - Switzerland may need to promote the president for the Nobel Peace Prize to secure a trade deal [6][7] - Countries are living in permanent uncertainty, as trade surpluses or deficits may not protect them from the president's internal political reasons [7]

💥BREAKING:WHITE HOUSE OFFICIAL SAYS SECONDARY SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA EXPECTED FRIDAY. ...

South Africa’s biggest political party said the government won’t bow to demands from Trump’s administration to change its policies even if that means its leaders are subjected to US sanctions https://t.co/YnNOPrT8vv ...

President Trump announces an additional 25% tariff on India as punishment for importing Russian oil, his first use of so-called secondary sanctions https://t.co/S2YyMAtsjQ ...

President Trump has threatened crippling new sanctions on Russia if Moscow doesn’t agree to end the war in Ukraine by Aug. 8. Photo: Kremlin pool/EPA/Shutterstock #wsj #putin #witkoff ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇳 President Trump signs executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India for buying sanctioned Russian oil. https://t.co/JYS2tsiA6S ...

President Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff met in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as the Kremlin seeks to head off threats of new sanctions over its war in Ukraine https://t.co/mZVSW1YOzu ...

Economic Impact of War & Sanctions - Despite war and sanctions, Russia's economy has shown resilience, even outpacing some advanced nations in growth in 2024 [1][5] - Initial expectations of sanctions crippling the Russian economy, such as "turning the ruble to rubble," did not fully materialize [4] - Russia reoriented its economy by shifting export markets to China and India, primarily for fuel exports, mitigating the impact of sanctions [7] - The war has acted as a stimulus, with military spending increasing from approximately $50 billion to nearly $150 billion annually since 2022 [2][3] Financial Sustainability & Future Outlook - Russia is currently spending more than it earns, depleting its reserves to supplement its budget [9] - At the current rate of expenditure, Russia's reserves are projected to be depleted around 2030 [9] - Oil and gas sector contributes about 20% of Russia's GDP, but analysts warn that current spending levels are unsustainable [8] - Potential secondary sanctions, such as 100% tariffs on those buying Russian oil, could be catastrophic if major buyers like China and India cease purchases, as oil and gas revenues account for 1/3 to 1/2 of Russia's annual budget [10] Geopolitical & Economic Risks - Increased military spending has led to a decrease in unemployment, reaching a 30-year low [8] - While wage inflation has outpaced general inflation, improving the standard of living for Russians, this is considered unsustainable [12] - Experts anticipate Russia will maintain elevated defense spending even after a potential ceasefire, driven by perceived threats [13][14]