Core Insights - Existing-home sales in August decreased by 0.2% from July, remaining stable overall [1][5] - The Midwest region showed month-over-month sales increases, while the Northeast and South experienced declines [2] - Year-over-year sales rose in the Midwest and South, but fell in the Northeast and West [2] Sales and Inventory Data - Total existing-home sales for August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million, reflecting a 0.2% decrease month-over-month and a 1.8% increase year-over-year [5] - Total housing inventory in August was 1.53 million units, down 1.3% from July but up 11.7% from August 2024 [5] - The median existing-home price in August was $422,600, marking a 2.0% increase from the previous year [3][5] Regional Performance - The Midwest was the best-performing region, with median home prices 22% below the national median [2] - The Northeast and South saw declines in sales, while the Midwest and West experienced increases [2] Mortgage Rates - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in August was 6.59%, down from 6.72% in July and 6.50% a year ago [8] Market Dynamics - Elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory have contributed to sluggish home sales in recent years [2] - Declining mortgage rates and increasing inventory are expected to boost sales in the coming months [2] - Record-high housing wealth and stock market performance may encourage current homeowners to trade up, benefiting the upper end of the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - Sales of previously owned U.S. homes decreased slightly in August due to affordability challenges for buyers, despite a recent decline in mortgage borrowing costs [1][2]. Sales Performance - Home sales fell by 0.2% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million units, down from 4.01 million in July, while year-over-year sales increased by 1.8% [2]. - The sales pace over the last two years has averaged around 4 million units per month, which is weaker than the rates observed during the 2007-2009 recession [3]. Mortgage Rates and Inventory - The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage recently decreased to 6.26%, the lowest since last fall, but remains significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels [4]. - Total inventory of homes for sale declined by 1.3% to 1.53 million units, with the current sales pace indicating that this inventory would last 4.6 months [6]. Regional Sales Trends - Sales trends varied by region, with increases in the Midwest and West, while the Northeast and South experienced declines. The Midwest's performance is attributed to better affordability [5]. Pricing Trends - The median sales price of homes rose by 2.0% year-over-year to $422,600, marking the 26th consecutive year-over-year increase, and prices in August were 52% higher than in August 2019 [5]. Buyer Composition - The share of all-cash transactions decreased to 28% from 31% in July, while investors accounted for 21% of all transactions, up from 20% the previous month. First-time buyers represented 28% of sales, unchanged from the previous month but up from 26% a year ago [6].

Core Insights - Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes remained sluggish in August, with a slight decline of 0.2% from July, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4 million units, marking the slowest sales pace since June [1] - Year-over-year, sales rose by 1.8% compared to August of the previous year, exceeding economists' expectations of a 3.96 million pace [2] - The national median sales price increased by 2% in August from a year earlier, reaching $422,600, continuing a trend of annual price increases for 26 consecutive months [2] Market Trends - The U.S. housing market has been experiencing a sales slump since 2022, primarily due to rising mortgage rates from historic lows, with sales of previously occupied homes hitting their lowest level in nearly 30 years last year [3] - Although mortgage rates have been declining since late July, making home loans more affordable, they remain high for many Americans, limiting purchasing power after years of rising home prices [4]

Modestly lower mortgage rates could result in a stronger showing this fall, however. ...

Real Estate Market Overview - The real estate market is not always "easy money" [4] - Existing homeowners are hesitant to move due to higher mortgage rates, with 80% having rates under 5% and facing a potential move to a 7% market [5] - Texas is not "doomed" despite rumors of Airbnb destroying the market [7] Texas Market Dynamics - The median home price in Texas is up 40%, creating a difficult situation for potential sellers [6] - Austin is experiencing significant population growth, with 400 people moving there daily, equating to adding the city of Pittsburgh every four to five years [8] - Austin has the fastest rental rate in the United States based on net absorption [10] Austin Commercial Development - Despite construction challenges, Austin's market is expected to strengthen due to the influx of people and intracompany business [9] - Tesla's $16 billion deal with Samsung, which has a location in Taylor (just outside of Austin), is expected to positively impact the market [9] - Major companies like Tesla, Oracle, Schwab, and Dell have a presence in Austin [8] Builder Concessions - Builders are offering concessions and price decreases to move new homes, indicating a less favorable market than headline numbers suggest [4] - New homes being sold require builders to make less money to move units [5]

Group 1: Housing Market Overview - New home sales in August increased by over 20% month-over-month, indicating strong demand and a potential turning point for the housing market [1] - Mortgage rates below 6.64% and down to 6% have historically led to improved housing data, with recent purchase application data showing the best performance in eight weeks [2] - The stability of mortgage rates around 6% is crucial for the growth of housing permits and starts, as fluctuations above 7% have historically dampened demand [3][4] Group 2: Builder Dynamics - Publicly traded builders are managing to maintain gross margins despite challenges, while smaller builders face greater risks due to recent job losses in residential construction [7] - Builders are currently focused on selling completed units, which are at historically low levels, prompting a pullback in construction activity [9][10] - The efficiency of builders in selling products contrasts with the existing home sales market, which involves more complex negotiations between sellers and buyers [9] Group 3: Labor Market Implications - The recent surge in single-family home sales occurs amidst a backdrop of job losses in manufacturing and residential construction, raising concerns about the labor market [11][12] - The ability to grow housing permits is essential for stabilizing the labor market related to single-family homes, emphasizing the importance of duration in housing data [12][13] - The current low mortgage rates are attributed to a softer labor market, highlighting the interconnectedness of these economic factors [13]

New home sales for the month of August coming in stronger than expected, climbing more than 20% month overmonth with mortgage rates coming down and demand clearly strong. So is this the turning point for the housing market. Joining us now, housing wire lead analyst Logan Moasami.Uh Logan, thank you for being here. Um so what do you think. Is this the kind of the unlock that we have been waiting for.You know, whenever mortgage rates head below 6.64% and down to 6%, housing data tends to improve, right. New h ...

Everyone knows that home affordability is a massive problem in the United States. Now, of course, people always focus on what some of the drivers of the problem are. We don't have enough regulation at the local level that empowers builders to build more supply. You don't have enough supply, home prices end up being unaffordable.Also, the cost of capital is too high. Mortgage rates are through the roof. And so, if people can't afford the mortgage payment, obviously, homes become unaffordable as well.But one ...

Some breaking economic data coming in much better than expected. New home sales rise 800,000 an annual rate the estimate had been for 650,000. That also means that the sales percentage change month over month is 20.5%.The expectation had actually been a decline of.3%. So it is a stronger number but not a roaring market. It does underscore the fact that mortgages Matt have come in.The mortgage rate looks to be around the lowest since the start of the year, but we've had a Fed that's cut 125 basis points over ...

All right, let's start off with your thesis here, Bill. You're saying that the weakness in the housing market, that's a sign that the Fed needs to cut rates even more than it has already. So, I don't want to put this in context, though.The Fed's cut rates by about 75 basis points over the last year and mortgage rates are up about 15 basis points. So, how is that going to help when the housing market seems to be really guided by some other factors. >> Well, the housing market is is one where it's very sensit ...