Inflation in the United States has been above the Fed's target since 2021. It is still elevated. A risk with tariffs, which might not normally apply, but a risk here is that because we've been at inflation elevated pace for so much time, that people are just going to build that into their thinking.Are they going to think, hey, we're going to get 2% inflation going forward. Or maybe they'll get stuck at this around the 3% level. And that's a big risk to the Fed. And that's the only reason that it is keeping ...

South African inflation quickened to a four-month high in June, complicating the central bank’s task as it prepares to review interest rates https://t.co/x70eoVvZni ...

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated there’s little immediate need to raise interest rates after a trade deal with the US was announced https://t.co/t9SjKd1YaI ...

With interest rates near two-decade highs, it is no wonder that homebuyers want to cut corners. Some strategies are risky—especially for sellers https://t.co/oDC3WVM3xs ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 reached a record closing high of 6309, up from 6305 the previous day [1] - The Dow increased by 179 points (+0.40%), while the Nasdaq decreased by 81 points (-0.39%) [1] - The small-cap Russell 2000 led the major indexes with a gain of 17 points (+0.79%) [1] Homebuilders Sector - Homebuilders had a strong trading day, with D.R. Horton (DHI) and Pulte Home (PHM) exceeding earnings expectations [2] - DHI's gross margins were better than anticipated, leading to a share price increase of +16.8% [2] - Pulte reported an increase in new orders, resulting in an +11.8% rise in shares [2] - The iShares Home Construction ETF (ITB) advanced by +7.88% [2] Interest Rate Expectations - Improved market sentiment is linked to expectations of a potential decrease in interest rates by the Federal Reserve [3] - High interest rates have kept mortgage rates elevated, limiting entry-level homebuyers' market access [3] - Current expectations suggest that high mortgage rates may soon decline [3] Earnings Reports - Texas Instruments (TXN) reported Q2 earnings of $1.41 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus by 9 cents, with revenues of $4.45 billion surpassing expectations of $4.31 billion [4] - Despite the strong quarterly performance, Texas Instruments shares fell by -7% in late trading [4] - Capital One Financial (COF) reported earnings of $5.48 per share, significantly above the anticipated $3.83, with revenues of $12.49 billion exceeding expectations of $12.22 billion [5] - Capital One's shares rose by +1.5% following the earnings announcement [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Existing Home Sales for June are projected to slightly decrease to 4.0 million seasonally adjusted, annualized units, marking a return to levels not seen since October of the previous year [6] - The Northeast region experienced the fastest growth in the previous report, with an increase of +4.2% [6] Anticipated Earnings Reports - A significant number of earnings reports are expected, including major companies such as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA), along with IBM, Chipotle, Southwest Airlines, ServiceNow, and Las Vegas Sands [7]

Secretary Scott Besson seemingly showing some support for Fed Chair Jay Powell, saying in a Fox Business interview that he does not see a reason for Powell to step down right now and that he should serve his full term through May. This follows Besson's comments yesterday suggesting the entire Federal Reserve should be examined. Powell resigning.I don't see how that would do anything to safeguard the institutions independence. I don't think Powell is going to leave uh the Fed before his term is up. What I wo ...

What exactly about the job that Jay Powell has done is not up to measure. The labor market is holding up well. Inflation has not reared its ugly head.I mean, it's above the 2% target, but it hasn't blown up just yet. Where do you see the economy failing under his leadership. It's great to be with you.If you look at Jay Powell, his tenure, I mean, we do have to remember that it was under his watch that we saw a 40 year high inflation. They were way too late to recognizing the inherently inflationary impact o ...

Market Overview - Major indexes are at highs, with favorable atmospheric conditions [1] - Earning season has been strong, with analysts underestimating corporate America's ability to protect margins [2][3] - The market is considered fully valued, with forward price to earnings ratio on the S&P above pre-selloff levels at 22 times and plus [5][6] Rally Analysis - The rally since April lows has been driven primarily by multiple expansions, which is not encouraging [6] - The breadth of the current recovery is more impressive compared to the rally after the October 2022 lows [7] - The Magnificent 7's contribution to returns has decreased from 60% in 2023-2024 to about half this year, indicating a broadening out in price performance and earnings growth [7] Investment Strategy - The current market favors a bottoms-up security selection approach, emphasizing active management to identify winners and losers [9] - Cyclicals have been leading defensive sectors, credit spreads are compressed, gold is above $3,400, and the dollar has been weak, suggesting loose financial conditions [9] Monetary Policy - The economy does not need lower interest rates, and the Fed's control over the economy may be less significant than perceived, although it significantly influences asset prices [10][11][12] - Lower interest rates might provide a short-term boost to housing affordability, but it's not a long-term solution due to underlying issues like insufficient home building [16] Economic Indicators - The top 20% of earners account for 40-60% of spending, benefiting from tax cuts and high stock prices [17] - The housing market faces challenges due to unaffordable homes and dwindling buying activity, linked to high mortgage rates and insufficient home construction [15]

Interest rates on Argentine peso notes are soaring across the board, piling pressure on banks amid a liquidity crunch caused by government efforts to defend the local currency https://t.co/UoH6j8hoqy ...

President Trump on Tuesday reiterated his criticism of Jerome Powell, saying the Fed chair is "probably" keeping rates high for political reasons https://t.co/zqYangmPh3 https://t.co/6KNEYTYmHd ...