Economic Growth Overview - The U.S. economy is projected to have grown at an annualized rate of 3.2% in the third quarter, a decrease from 3.8% in the second quarter but above the average of 2.6% since Q3 2021 [2] - The report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was delayed due to a government shutdown, which affected the release of key economic indicators [3] Consumer Spending and Economic Drivers - Consumer spending is identified as the main driver of economic growth, with economists noting robust momentum in the third quarter [6][7] - Despite strong consumer spending, concerns arise regarding a potential slowdown due to rising unemployment rates, which have reached their highest level since the pandemic [7][8] Impact of Tariffs on GDP - Recent GDP measurements have been distorted by changes in trade policies, particularly tariffs, which have affected import levels and consequently GDP calculations [5] - The surge in imports prior to the implementation of tariffs negatively impacted GDP, but a subsequent decline in imports helped reverse this trend in the second quarter [5]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point in December but indicated only one rate cut is expected in 2026 due to persistent high inflation [2][7] - A softer inflation reading for November has raised hopes for more rate cuts, with expectations that inflation could decline to 2.4% by the end of 2026 and economic growth could accelerate to 2.3% next year [8] Consumer Discretionary Stocks - Five consumer discretionary stocks are recommended: Amer Sports, Inc. (AS), Crocs, Inc. (CROX), Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB), Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), and Roku, Inc. (ROKU) [3] - These stocks have seen positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 60 days and carry a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for solid returns [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Amer Sports, Inc. (AS)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 21.5%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 10.7% over the last 60 days [9][11] - **Crocs, Inc. (CROX)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 3.9%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 5% over the past 60 days [12] - **Kontoor Brands, Inc. (KTB)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 5.3%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 0.7% over the past 60 days [13] - **Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL)**: Expected earnings growth rate for next year is 9.1%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 0.7% over the past 60 days [14] - **Roku, Inc. (ROKU)**: Expected earnings growth rate for the current year is over 100%, with current-year earnings estimates improving by 83.3% over the past 60 days [15]

Core Insights - Private investment in India is expected to increase in 2026, driven by strong domestic consumption, reduced GST rates, government reforms, low inflation, and low interest rates [1][14] - The upcoming budget is anticipated to prioritize public capital expenditure, which may further stimulate private investment [14] Economic Indicators - Capacity utilization has risen to approximately 75%, indicating steady economic activity and supporting a potential increase in private capital expenditure [8][14] - Private capital expenditure increased by 11% to ₹9.4 lakh crore in FY25 compared to the previous year, with order books for capital goods companies surging by 20.7% [9][14] - New project announcements reached ₹14.6 lakh crore in the first half of FY26, up from ₹7.8 lakh crore in the same period the previous year [9][14] Sectoral Insights - Sectors such as fast-moving consumer goods, consumer durables, renewables, electronics, and electric vehicles are expected to see heightened investment due to sustained domestic demand [1][14] - The robust order book position of capital goods companies is likely to support continued capital expenditure growth, particularly in semiconductors, electronics, electrical equipment, EV components, and basic metals [10][14] Government Policies - Recent policy changes include a revamp of GST, new labor codes, modifications to the rural employment guarantee scheme, insurance reforms, and the opening of nuclear power to private sector participation [2][14] - Central government capital expenditure increased by 32% to ₹6.2 trillion in the April-October period compared to ₹4.7 trillion in the same period the previous year [11][14] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The RBI cut the policy repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, totaling a reduction of 125 basis points in 2025, which, along with softer retail inflation averaging 2.3% in 2025, is expected to support demand and investment [5][14] - Gross fixed capital formation rose by 7.3% in the second quarter of FY26, slightly lower than the 7.8% growth in the previous quarter [10][14]

Tourists look past Guyana. It's ready to change their minds. The world's fastest-growing economy is using its oil wealth to develop its ecotourism options. https://t.co/tM4FDfZL7L ...

Lackluster growth in Asia and low inflation justified rate cuts, writes @Moss_Eco. The same prescription may not work in 2026 (via @opinion) https://t.co/JtQblAXIK2 ...

The great artificial intelligence boom that’s fueling US economic growth now depends heavily on credit markets to finance the investments. Utilities are among the key borrowers https://t.co/mqsa6NY9uF ...

Tourists look past Guyana. It's ready to change their minds. The world's fastest-growing economy is using its oil wealth to develop its ecotourism options. https://t.co/xcSlPVB40s ...

As we continue our review of the first quarter of the 21st century, we turn to one country that has been a story, well, really many stories in and of itself. Our colleague Enda Curran takes us through China's remarkable transformation. [Applause] -China joining the WTO in 2001 was probably one of the most consequential decisions, not just for China's economy, but for the world economy.-The WTO agreement will move China in the right direction. -So companies could shift there and both tap into the Chinese mar ...

Economic Outlook & Growth Drivers - The economy faces hurdles including government shutdowns affecting growth and delaying data collection [2] - "Prosec" (production for security) is a key positive thesis, focusing on domestic production in areas of national security interest like chips, data centers, AI, electricity, and rare earth minerals [3][4][5] - Tariffs are starting to impact earnings potential and may spread to consumers [6][7] - Tax cuts, tilted towards upper-end households, and deregulation are expected to inject cash into the economy in the first half of 2026 [9][10][11] - The dynamic properties inside the tax bill should facilitate 23% to 25% growth next year [14] Market & Investment Strategies - Companies are questioning spending on AI, which could drag on the economy if it slows [6][15] - The market and economy have diverged, with a "little i-shaped economy" where a small segment is doing well while the rest is just okay [16][17] - Fund manager surveys show bullish sentiment, but there's a disconnect with the real economy [19] - Tech companies may become more careful with spending plans [21] AI & Technology - Focus should shift from those working on AI to those working with AI, emphasizing adoption policies to drive productivity growth [24][25] - Data centers are driving significant debt issuance, estimated at $150 billion to $175 billion per year [30] - Governments are accelerating the development of AI value chains for economic and national security [52] - Sovereign AI is a key theme, with governments focusing on algorithms, critical minerals for semiconductors, and data [52][53] Crypto & Regulation - The Senate is considering the Clarity Act to provide a market structure for crypto in the US [33] - Banks are exploring stablecoins, which could lead to greater adoption and efficiency in the financial system [35][36] - Bitcoin is heavily influenced by leverage players, requiring new standards and safeguards [37][38][39] Trade & Geopolitics - Uncertainty around tariff policies is expected to continue, along with export controls and trade restrictions [42][43] - Companies are using scenario planning to manage geopolitical risks [46] - Geopolitical competition for resources like critical minerals and fresh water is a key story for 2026 [47][48] - Geopolitical competition around access to capital and the growing politization of capital allocation are reshaping the global financial system [50]

The Bank of France raised its growth forecasts as the euro area’s second-largest economy shows resilience to prolonged political turbulence and fiscal uncertainty https://t.co/eszoOOAsSn ...