Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with a focus on the impact of tariffs and inflationary pressures, suggesting a potential slowdown in investment opportunities [15][22][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant global growth slowdown, particularly in the US, with GDP growth expected to decline from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 2026, driven by tariff-induced inflation and restrictive immigration policies [16][22]. - In the Euro area, growth is projected to remain around 1.0%, with inflation expected to undershoot the ECB's target due to a decline in private consumption and exports [17][22]. - Japan's economy is expected to show resilience, but inflation is moderating as the yen appreciates, leading to a hold on policy rates by the BoJ [18][22]. - China is anticipated to experience the largest slowdown, with real growth in 2025 expected to be 0.5 percentage points lower than in 2024, influenced by modest fiscal expansion and tariff impacts [19][22]. - India is projected to be the fastest-growing economy, with growth supported by domestic demand and fiscal policy, despite external headwinds [19][22]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to slow significantly, with core PCE inflation peaking at 4.5% in Q3 2025, while growth stalls by late 2025 [16][22]. - The Fed is anticipated to maintain its policy rate throughout 2025, with potential easing starting in March 2026 [16][22]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - Growth is forecasted to be below potential, with the ECB expected to cut rates to 1.5% by December 2025 due to weak economic activity [17][22]. Asia Economic Outlook - Tariff uncertainty is expected to weigh on growth in Asia, particularly affecting capital expenditures [24][25]. - China's GDP deflator is projected to remain negative, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures [56]. CEEMEA and LatAm Economic Outlook - The CEEMEA region may see growth acceleration despite global uncertainties, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to fare better than Mexico amid the global slowdown [21][26]. - Mexico is significantly impacted by elevated global uncertainty, while Chile and Colombia are affected to a lesser extent [26][22]. Global Strategy - The report emphasizes that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a recommendation to overweight US equities and core fixed income [29][22].

Tax & Healthcare Policy Revisions - Senate Republicans are expected to propose revisions to key tax and healthcare policies, aiming for completion by July 4th [1] - Revisions may include adjustments to Medicaid savings (slowing growth, not cuts), discussions on SALT (State and Local Tax) deductions, and the Inflation Reduction Act [4] Economic Growth & Tax Rates - Locking in lower tax rates permanently, including low corporate tax, is crucial for job creation and innovation [7] - Fully restoring key business provisions (expensing, R&D, interest deductibility) and making the small business Main Street tax deduction of 20% permanent are seen as pro-growth measures [7] Deficit & Revenue - Estimates suggest the bill could add $2.5 trillion (Congressional Budget Office estimate) to the US deficit over a decade [8][9] - Growth can significantly impact revenue, as seen in 2017 when lowering the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% resulted in higher revenue collection than projected [10] Tariff Policy & Trade - The speaker is generally not in favor of tariffs, except as a remedy for unfair trade practices, as they can drive up costs, slow the economy, and invite retaliation [14] - Anchoring crucial security-critical supply lines in the US and running them through reliable trading partners is important [15] - Canada and Mexico buy five times more "Made in America" products than China, highlighting the importance of positive trade relationships with these countries [17] Foreign Investment - Republicans generally believe in the growth and importance of foreign direct investment, which constitutes a sixth of the US economy [19] - A provision was added to deter OECD countries from implementing global minimum tax pillar 2, which could weaken US growth incentives and sovereignty over tax law [21]

Welcome to a new episode of the opening bid podcast. I'm Yahoo Finance executive editor Brian Sazi. Like I always say, this is a podcast will make you a smarter investor, period.And you're going to get smarter on all things uh economy here at this very pivotal moment for the US economy. Joining me now is Visa chief economist Wayne Best. Wayne, good to see you.It's been a while. Last time I saw you in our Yahoo headquarters in New York City, it came with a bunch of charts and tables. So, um, welcome back.App ...

May 18, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea The Détente – What It Does and Doesn't Mean Following Monday's announcement of a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs between the US and China, the response in risk markets has been resoundingly positive through the first four trading days. The S&P 500 is up 4.5% from last Friday's close, and year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April. Credit markets have also rallied notably, ...

6 June 2025 | 4:47PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart Dissecting the equity market's pricing of economic growth David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kar ...

Company Expansion - LaCroix Precision Optics is expanding its manufacturing operations in Batesville, Arkansas, creating 107 new jobs over five years with an investment of $13.8 million [1][2] - The expansion is driven by a multi-year military contract aimed at restoring a critical supply chain to the United States, which will enhance the company's capabilities with advanced equipment and additional manufacturing space of 18,750 square feet [2][4] Economic Impact - The expansion is seen as a significant win for the Batesville community, contributing to local job creation and economic growth [5][6] - Arkansas officials highlight the pro-business climate, low costs, and experienced workforce as key factors attracting investments like that of LaCroix Precision Optics [4][3] Company Background - LaCroix Precision Optics has been a family-run business for nearly 60 years, originally founded in Chicago in 1947 and fully relocating to Batesville in 1976 [3][7] - The company specializes in high precision optics, producing a range of custom optics including spherical lenses, achromats, and prisms [3][7] Future Prospects - Construction for the expansion has already commenced, with operations expected to start in December 2025 [5] - Applications for new positions are currently open, indicating ongoing growth and opportunities within the company [6]

Signs of Nashville's explosive growth are visible from the city skyline. There are cranes everywhere. It's booming.Nashville is known for its country music scene and boasts the largest concentration of music industry jobs per capita in the US. But the secret to the city's success goes beyond music. 150,000 new jobs, $30 billion growth in our GDP, and we're tracking on that.More than 2 million people and 60,000 businesses call the Nashville area home. The city boasts the fifth hottest real estate market in t ...

We were ranked the happiest city in America, the healthiest city in America. If you had to lay out the road map for other cities, but frankly for other states, the rest of the country, what's the road map. The Francis Suarez road map.The formula for success is simple. Keep taxes low. Keep people safe.Lean into innovation. I lower taxes to the lowest level in history. And we've seen 140% growth in 9 years.So, the economy is robust. We have the lowest unemployment in America. We have the highest median wage g ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong portfolio performance with positive NOI and EBITDA growth, indicating resilience in its financials [3][4] - The alternative credit business is valued at $40 billion, reflecting a robust position in the market [3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Direct lending portfolios maintain a loan-to-value ratio of 42%, suggesting a strong backing by institutional equity [7][30] - The company has seen a 61% increase in deployment despite a 7% decline in US M&A volumes, showcasing effective management of capital [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Credit spreads have widened by 50 to 75 basis points post-Liberation Day, but the total return in direct lending remains attractive at around 10% [18][21] - The secondary market for private equity is experiencing significant growth, with an estimated $160 billion in secondary deployment last year, indicating a healthy demand for liquidity solutions [62] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The acquisition of GCP enhances the company's position in industrial real estate and digital infrastructure, aligning with its strategic roadmap for growth in Asia and data centers [57][58] - The company aims to double its asset-based finance business to $75-80 billion, focusing on sub-investment grade and investment grade opportunities [36][38] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expresses cautious optimism about the economy, noting strong fundamentals despite concerns over inflation and economic growth [4][5] - The company maintains its five-year fee-related earnings growth guidance of 16% to 20%, reflecting confidence in its business model and market position [85][86] Other Important Information - The company emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between retail and institutional fundraising to ensure sustainable growth and performance [78][79] - Management highlights the educational efforts made to improve investor understanding of asset-based finance, which is crucial for market expansion [42][44] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the biggest risks to the private credit market? - Management believes that private credit is one of the last places to see losses due to the high quality of borrowers and the structure of the market [8][9] Question: How is the integration of the GCP acquisition progressing? - The acquisition is on track to enhance the company's capabilities in industrial real estate and data centers, with significant growth potential identified [57][58] Question: How does the company manage the conflict between retail and institutional flows? - The company focuses on building investment capacity to ensure that it can meet the demands of both retail and institutional investors without compromising performance [78][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has a long-term view on inflation and interest rates, expecting them to remain higher for longer, which aligns with historical trends [4][5][9] - The company has $116 billion of dry powder available for investment, indicating strong capital reserves for future opportunities [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private equity portfolio is marked at over 60% at more than 1.5 times the cost, while public names are marked at an average of four times the cost, reflecting strong performance [18][19] - The company has been actively exiting investments, including sales in Japan and infrastructure, contributing to a mature portfolio [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - More than 70% of the company's deployment in infrastructure over the last five years has been outside the United States, showcasing a global investment strategy [34] - The company has seen a shift in investor sentiment, with a more balanced approach to global allocations, particularly towards Europe and Asia [36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on building portfolios that can navigate different economic cycles, emphasizing long-term investments [15][16] - Strategic holdings have been introduced to capture lower-risk, attractive reward investments, diversifying the company's offerings [23][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the realization outlook, citing a strong pipeline of realizations and a disciplined investment approach [15][21] - The company does not foresee significant stress in its portfolios despite macroeconomic concerns, indicating confidence in its investment strategy [12][14] Other Important Information - The company is expanding its product offerings for high-net-worth individuals through partnerships, aiming to capture a larger share of the market [45][49] - The insurance segment is expected to see growth in earnings as the business model transitions and third-party capital is raised [92][93] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the company's view on inflation and economic growth? - The company expects inflation and interest rates to remain higher for longer, which is consistent with historical trends [4][5] Question: How is the company managing its portfolio amidst macroeconomic concerns? - The company has not seen significant stress in its portfolios and feels confident due to its portfolio construction and historical experience with economic cycles [12][14] Question: What is the outlook for the company's strategic holdings? - The strategic holdings segment is designed to capture lower-risk investments with attractive returns, and the company is optimistic about its growth potential [23][25] Question: How is the company addressing client demand for alternative products? - The company is seeing significant adoption of its alternative products and is expanding its offerings to cater to high-net-worth individuals [38][45] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding direct lending and asset-based finance? - The company is actively involved in both direct lending and asset-based finance, with a focus on scaling third-party business alongside its own insurance growth [76][80]