Market & Economic Assessment - The Fed is in a difficult position, balancing inflation pressures with calls for rate cuts, while the economy grows between 2% and 3% [2][3] - Current market conditions, including high equity prices, low volatility, and tight credit spreads, are atypical for a rate-cutting cycle [3][4] - Speculative behavior is prevalent, with tight credit spreads making fixed income investments interest rate sensitive [5] - Fiscal policy is challenging, with $37 trillion in debt and a $2 trillion deficit, while the Fed maintains a $7 trillion balance sheet [7] - Inflationary pressures persist, particularly in construction costs and wages, making a return to zero rates unlikely [8] - The long end of the yield curve signals concerns about the US fiscal situation, as the 30-year Treasury yield is higher than when Fed funds were 51/8% [10][11] Investment Strategy & Risk - The administration's policies favor risk assets, but this may not be favorable for fixed income [6][24][27] - Investors should be cautious about taking on excessive risk in fixed income portfolios, particularly through high yield credit at tight spreads [6][15] - Private credit funds raise concerns, especially the push to include illiquid assets in liquid investment vehicles, echoing concerns from 2007 [15][16][18] - Meme stock activity indicates that investors are unafraid, with one penny stock accounting for 15% of stock exchange volume [20][21] - While the overall risk environment is favorable, it is susceptible to shocks, requiring careful monitoring and liquidity [26][27][25]

unpopular opinion: earning yield on your stables is not risk free money ...

Note: Phantom Perps aren't available everywhere. Trading perps involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all users. This post is not intended for UK audiences. ...

You won’t improve your situation without taking more risk. ...

Investment Strategy - Including private assets in 401(k) plans could potentially increase returns [1] - Incorporating private assets also introduces higher risk [1]

Note: Phantom Perps aren't available everywhere. Trading perps involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all users. This post is not intended for UK audiences. ...

Note: Perps aren't available everywhere. Trading perps involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all users. This post is not intended for UK audiences. ...

Market Risk - Deutsche Bank AG strategist suggests President Trump's potential dismissal of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a major and underpriced risk [1] - The strategist anticipates this action could trigger a selloff in the US dollar and Treasuries [1]

Generally speaking I would *never* recommend a credit card loan to buy crypto…But if you do, pls pls pls do not immediately then shove your debt-raised bitcoin into very 3-5 new DeFi or restaking protocols 😂What happens if a single one of those experiences an exploit? You’re toast.I can get on board with yield on spot-owned assets in many instances, but I cannot fathom using debt to acquire coin and then immediately putting it at risk 😭ashen | kamai (@solashenone):You guys remember the 0% APR credit card lo ...

Market Trends & Sentiment - The market is responding to momentum, led by mega-cap tech stocks [1] - Small caps outperformed, up over 1% [2] - Markets want to go higher in the absence of rockiness, with the VIX sub 16 [3] - The market got a charge from the Fed's potential rate cuts [5] - There's a good setup for the second half of the year with inflation coming down [7] - Retail investors are rushing into riskier areas like Bitcoin and Nvidia [8] Earnings & Growth - Q1 earnings were essentially a pass on uncertainty [2] - Growth is continuing to be strong, defying expectations of a fall [6] Investment Opportunities & Risks - There's still a lot of cash on the sidelines that could re-enter the market as shorter-term rates come down [7] - Nvidia's dominance in the AI space may be chipped away [10] - A company with 125% of sales from China saw its stock rise despite customer concentration risks and customers seeking alternative chip sources [9]