What Keeps CEOs Up At Night. Hint: It Isn't AI. - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# What Keeps CEOs Up At Night. Hint: It Isn't AI.ByDana PetersonShareResize---Reprints(Dreamstime)"Uncertainty†was already a buzzword in 2025, but ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of real yields in the USD market, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and their implications for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Real Yields - Real yields in the USD market are experiencing fluctuations, which are causing uncertainty among investors [1][3]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring these yields as they can significantly impact investment strategies and market dynamics [1][3]. Group 2: Reserve Shift - There is a mention of a reserve shift, indicating potential changes in asset allocation or liquidity management within financial institutions [2][4]. - The specific figures related to the reserve shift are noted, with a reference to a value of 999.49 and another figure of 999.79, suggesting a close monitoring of these metrics [2][4].

Core Insights - Tariffs and shifting trade policies have created ongoing operational challenges for U.S. businesses, particularly affecting financial and product leaders [1][3] - Middle-market firms are experiencing heightened uncertainty due to tariffs, policy changes, and uneven global demand, which has become a defining feature for 2025 [3][4] Impact on Goods vs. Services Firms - A significant divide exists between goods-producing firms and services providers, with over one-third of CFOs at goods firms reporting high operational uncertainty by late 2025, a sharp increase from pre-tariff conditions [5][6] - Goods firms face higher input costs and supply-chain disruptions, leading to operational constraints, while services firms are more insulated from these impacts [6] Margin Pressures - More than 40% of CFOs at goods companies reported declining operating margins in 2025, while only 12% saw improvements, indicating a severe impact on profitability [7] - High uncertainty correlates with margin deterioration, as over three-quarters of firms under high uncertainty reported margin declines [7] Strategic Responses - Companies have shifted to "reset mode," prioritizing defensive strategies over aggressive growth, with over one-third of CFOs focusing on risk management and compliance [8][9] - Goods firms are diversifying supply chains and renegotiating vendor contracts, while services firms are concentrating on operational efficiency [9] Technology Investment Trends - Technology investment has decreased, with only 15% of firms prioritizing AI and digital transformation in 2025, but expectations for 2026 indicate a shift towards prioritizing digital transformation [10] Future Outlook - As companies approach 2026, nearly two-thirds expect growth despite ongoing tariff uncertainties, emphasizing the need for flexible cost structures and resilient supply chains [11][12]

Holiday Sales Performance - The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a record holiday shopping season, with spending projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time [1][3] - NRF confirms that Super Saturday turnout reached nearly 160 million shoppers, surpassing the 2022 record [2] - Thanksgiving weekend saw a record 203 million shoppers [4] - Sales growth is forecasted to be between 37% and 42% compared to the previous year [3] Consumer Behavior - Consumers are shopping across channels, including online, mobile devices, and brick-and-mortar stores [7][8] - Value-seeking consumers are actively searching for special deals and value [8][9] - Consumers still had more than half of their shopping remaining in early December [5] Economic Uncertainty - Uncertainty is a defining characteristic, impacting retailers' ability to forecast demand and operate efficiently [10][12][13] - Retailers have demonstrated creativity in providing affordable solutions for consumers amidst tariff impacts [10] - The industry desires more certainty, a roadmap, guidance, and predictability for 2026 [11][13]

Millions of Americans face higher health-insurance premiums and more uncertainty, with Congress set to break for the rest of the year https://t.co/RlmYfPJYUP ...

UK retail sales fell for a second straight month in November, adding to evidence that the economy was damaged by uncertainty in the run-up to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget https://t.co/mM08d7LYmm ...

Market Trends & Uncertainty - Bitcoin faces rising downside bets amid year-end uncertainty [1] - Mixed macro data contributes to the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin [1] Potential Risks - Analysts indicate Bitcoin is "on a knife's edge," suggesting a precarious situation [1]

Core Insights - The term "AI" has become the most frequently used term in S&P 500 earnings calls this year, indicating a strong focus among CEOs and CFOs on artificial intelligence [1] Group 1: AI Mentions in Earnings Calls - FactSet reported that "AI" was cited in 306 S&P 500 earnings calls from September 15 to December 4, marking the highest number in the past decade, surpassing the previous record of 292 in Q2 2025 [2] - The 306 mentions of "AI" are significantly above the five-year average of 136 and the ten-year average of 86 [2] - The information technology and communication services sectors had the highest percentages of earnings calls citing "AI" at 95% each for Q3 [3] Group 2: Price Performance Correlation - S&P 500 companies that mentioned "AI" in their Q3 earnings calls experienced a higher average price increase compared to those that did not, with increases of 13.9% vs. 5.7% since December 31, 2024, 8.1% vs. 3.9% since June 30, 2025, and 1.0% vs. 0.3% since September 30, 2025 [4] Group 3: Uncertainty in Earnings Calls - The term "uncertainty" was analyzed in S&P 500 earnings calls, showing a spike in mentions in Q1 2025 with 415 instances, followed by a decline to 282 in Q2 and 201 in Q3 [5] - The emergence of significant uncertainty was linked to the new administration's economic and geopolitical agenda, prompting CFOs to focus on actionable strategies to build resilience [6] - Despite the tapering off of "uncertainty" mentions, the ongoing nature of uncertainty may drive companies to revisit strategies and seize competitive opportunities [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Global AI spending is projected to increase in 2026, suggesting that "AI" will likely remain a prominent topic in Q4 earnings calls as companies discuss investments, margins, capital expenditures, and productivity [7]

Core Insights - Governor Tiff Macklem indicates that uncertainty remains elevated in the current economic environment, which complicates the assessment of underlying momentum [1] Group 1 - The volatility in data makes it challenging for the company to gauge the true economic momentum [1]

In 2026,Make the next bull run your win.Find the alpha within you.Build while others doubt.Understand the tech.DCA your paycheck.Ignore the noise.Ignore the FUD.Find the gems.Donate time.Transform.HODL.WIN. ...