" TSINGHUA Financial Review 清华金融购评论 与此同时，美国财政赤字持续扩大，危机凸显。截至2025年10月21日，美国联邦债务已达38万亿美元，距离2025年8月突破37万亿美元仅间隔两个多月， 创历史最快万亿级增速。2024财年美国联邦债务利息支出已超1万亿美元，占当年GDP的3.6%，成为仅次于社会保障的第二大财政支出。此外，在美国反 复将美元当成金融制裁"武器"后，美元信用危机日益加深，2025年2月以来，美元、美股、美债"三杀现象"多次出现，揭示了美元和美债存在的内在问 题。 美元与美债存在相互支撑关系。美元维持霸权地位，美债就能持续受到各国和地区央行及金融市场的追捧；美债作为核心安全资产促成美元国际循环，是 维系美元霸权体系的关键制度安排。自布雷顿森林体系崩溃后，美元与石油挂钩，既巩固了美元的国际货币地位，也为美债扩张埋下伏笔。 前瞻美债与美元 文 / 财政部原副部长 朱光耀 当前，国际竞争特别是大国竞争极为激烈。美国作为全球第一大经济体，正竭尽全力维持其全球霸权地位，特别是维护美元的世界主要储备货币地位和美 国资本市场的特殊影响力。与此同时，美国经济结构中的一些问题逐渐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the United States cannot regain its manufacturing dominance over China, despite political efforts and subsidies, due to fundamental structural issues in the U.S. economy and manufacturing sector [1][2]. Group 1: Manufacturing Comparison - According to purchasing power parity (PPP), China's manufacturing output was $8.4 trillion last year, while the U.S. was only $2.6 trillion, indicating a threefold gap [6][7]. - To catch up with China, the U.S. would need to achieve a continuous 6% annual growth in manufacturing for 20 years, which is deemed unrealistic for a developed economy like the U.S. [8][10]. Group 2: Economic Strategy - The U.S. has focused on quick profits through finance, IP licensing, and software, leading to a hollowing out of its manufacturing base [11][12]. - In contrast, China's manufacturing ecosystem allows for rapid production and supply chain efficiency, exemplified by the ability to source components quickly within a short radius [14]. Group 3: Policy Challenges - The U.S. is experiencing "policy schizophrenia," with inconsistent manufacturing policies that deter long-term investments [15][16]. - In contrast, China has maintained a consistent strategic direction over decades, which has strengthened its manufacturing capabilities [19]. Group 4: Conclusion - The article concludes that the U.S. is not losing its manufacturing jobs to China but is instead undermining its own industrial base through misguided priorities [20][22].

前言 2016年，局座张召忠的一个军事预言引发热议："若特朗普执政八年，将是首个把美国经济从世界老大带入老二的总统"。 如今，美国对外关系委员会高级研究员杜如松，称中国已具备与美国平起平坐的能力。 那么，特朗普真的是美国滑落的罪魁祸首？中国的赶超又仅仅是靠对手的神操作吗？ 38万亿美债压顶，美国正在窒息 预言正在实现，前白宫国安委中国事务主任杜如松直接在《纽约时报》上发文，将中国与美国平起平坐的原因归咎于特朗普。 事实上在美国经济下滑这件事情上，特朗普是"主要功臣"，2025年4月特朗普推出的"对等关税"政策一落地，美国老百姓最先遭罪。 关税不是只针对中国，欧盟、日本这些多年的贸易伙伴也一样被加税，进口商品的成本上去了，商场超市里的东西跟着就涨价，企业的日子更不好过。 像苹果、特斯拉这些大公司，零件本来就来自全世界，关税一涨成本也上去了不说，政策还变来变去，生产成本根本没个准数，企业压根没法做长远规划。 更麻烦的是美元也出问题了，根据公开数据，特朗普执政以来美元已经贬值超过11%。 2025年上半年最深的时候跌了12%，以前美元是避险的硬通货，如今美元的信誉明显打了折扣。 最关键的是特朗普喊着"美国优先"搞单 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a "reasonable proportion" of the manufacturing industry within China's economy, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" to strengthen the foundation of the real economy [1]. Group 1: Definition of "Reasonable Proportion" - The "reasonable proportion" refers to the share of manufacturing value added in the GDP, which is influenced by both manufacturing and other sectors like services [2]. - Over the years, as China's economy has grown and evolved, the proportion of manufacturing in GDP has decreased, while the service sector has increased, with service value added surpassing secondary industry for the first time in 2012 [2]. - The historical trend shows that while the absolute size of manufacturing is growing, its relative share in GDP cannot be excessively high, reflecting a common pattern in the development of other economies [2]. Group 2: Importance of Maintaining Manufacturing's Proportion - Manufacturing plays a crucial role in daily life, providing essential goods and services that meet basic needs [3]. - It serves as a solid foundation for the development of other industries, including agriculture and services, and is vital for job creation, employing over 100 million people, which accounts for 24.4% of the workforce in secondary and tertiary industries [3]. - The stability and growth of the economy, technological strength, and overall national power are closely tied to the health of the manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: External Factors and Challenges - In the context of increasing international competition, manufacturing is a critical area for nations to focus on [4]. - Despite being the world's largest manufacturing country, China faces challenges from new technological revolutions and rising protectionism, which threaten global supply chains [4]. - To navigate these challenges, it is essential to focus on the real economy, enhance core technologies, and strengthen the resilience and competitiveness of supply chains [4]. Group 4: Strategies to Maintain Reasonable Proportion - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines specific tasks to build a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing, optimize traditional industries, and cultivate emerging sectors [6]. - The goal is to enhance the quality and strength of manufacturing, with projections indicating that by 2024, China's manufacturing value added will account for nearly 30% of the global total [7]. - Addressing existing shortcomings, such as insufficient innovation capabilities and technological gaps, is crucial for advancing towards a manufacturing powerhouse [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, signaling a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [2] - The federal funds rate has been lowered by 25 basis points, maintaining a range of 3.75% to 4.00% [2] - The balance sheet reduction, which began in June 2022, aimed to normalize the Fed's balance sheet after it expanded significantly during the pandemic [2] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with net interest payments nearing defense spending levels, complicating monetary policy [3] - The Fed's policy decisions are increasingly influenced by fiscal sustainability, balancing inflation control against rising government financing costs [3] - The recent pause in balance sheet reduction reflects the Fed's struggle between fiscal pressures and its monetary policy objectives [3] Group 3 - Changes in U.S. monetary policy have significant global implications, affecting capital flows and currency valuations in emerging markets [5] - During the tightening phase, emerging markets faced capital outflows and currency depreciation, highlighting their vulnerability to U.S. policy shifts [5] - A potential shift to easing could lead to increased global liquidity, impacting commodity prices and asset valuations, raising concerns about financial bubbles [5] Group 4 - The U.S. monetary policy's challenges are symptomatic of long-term structural issues, including the hollowing out of domestic industries and reliance on debt [6] - The "America First" policy has accelerated a reevaluation of the dollar's role in the global economy, prompting some countries to explore alternative currencies [6] - The Fed's policy space is constrained by the need for low interest rates to manage debt, while excessive easing could undermine the dollar's credibility [6] Group 5 - The Fed's policy choices are increasingly focused on stabilizing the debt system rather than solely addressing employment and inflation [7] - The independence of monetary policy is being challenged as it becomes intertwined with government debt management [7] - Without addressing structural issues, the Fed may continue to face difficulties in balancing fiscal pressures with its policy goals, impacting its authority and effectiveness [7]

Core Insights - The recent proposal by the Central Committee emphasizes the importance of a modern industrial system as the material and technological foundation for Chinese-style modernization, focusing on the real economy and aiming for intelligent, green, and integrated development [2][3] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The primary strategic task for the 15th Five-Year Plan has shifted from technological innovation to industrial system construction and real economy development, with technology now serving as a supporting role [2][3] - The dual motivations for this strategic shift include the transition of development stages and the evolution of competitive paradigms, highlighting the need for innovation to be rooted in the industrial context to enhance economic resilience and competitiveness [3] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Importance - The proposal underscores the critical role of maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing in the economy, which is essential for strengthening the foundation of the real economy [3][4] - Historical data indicates that countries like Japan and Germany maintain a stable manufacturing value-added ratio of around 20% of GDP, which supports their international competitiveness [4] Group 3: Development Pathways - The construction of a modern industrial system should focus on four key areas: optimizing the manufacturing tier, promoting service industry development, solidifying infrastructure, and enhancing the market environment [5][6] - Specific actions include upgrading traditional industries, fostering new industries as core pillars, and innovating regulatory frameworks to support future industries [5][6] - The service sector is to be expanded and improved, integrating with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture to enhance overall economic efficiency [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary proposed a potential 500% tariff on Chinese purchases of Russian oil, indicating a political strategy to leverage economic measures in the context of the Ukraine crisis [1][6][20] - Economic logic suggests that tariffs above a certain threshold, such as 100%, significantly diminish the profitability of goods, making higher tariffs like 500% or 7000% more symbolic than practical [3][10][20] - The U.S. is using the tariff threat as a negotiating tool ahead of upcoming trade talks with China, reflecting a pattern of linking geopolitical issues with economic leverage [6][17][20] Group 2 - European countries are experiencing rising energy prices and inflation due to the Ukraine conflict, leading to a potential "de-industrialization" as companies relocate to the U.S. for lower energy costs [7][8][17] - Russia has legally formalized its strategic partnership with China, indicating a commitment to mutual cooperation that complicates U.S. efforts to drive a wedge between the two nations [9][18][20] - The interdependence of U.S. and Chinese markets is highlighted by the complexities of trade relationships, where high tariffs can lead to supply chain shifts and market adjustments [10][12][19] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs extends through various supply chain stages, ultimately affecting consumer prices and contributing to inflation, as seen in the U.S. market for Chinese goods [15][16][20] - The U.S. tariff threats have historically faced pushback from domestic businesses and consumers, indicating a limit to how much pressure can be applied without economic repercussions [6][16][20] - The dynamics of global trade are shifting, with China diversifying its market relationships and reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar for transactions, which may mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions [10][12][19]

Group 1 - The core issues facing the U.S. include oligarchy, hollowing out of industries, and the proliferation of misinformation, which are impacting the democratic system [1][8] - Trump's administration has been criticized for failing to strengthen the U.S., with a focus on tariffs overshadowing deeper systemic problems [3][8] - Trump's aggressive policies aimed at revitalizing manufacturing have not only failed but have exacerbated economic crises, with tariffs reaching as high as 145% [7][13] Group 2 - The interconnectedness of oligarchy, hollowing out of industries, and misinformation suggests that addressing these issues requires a more measured approach than what Trump has employed [8][11] - Trump's attempts to challenge large multinational corporations have faced significant resistance from entrenched interests, complicating his economic and political strategies [9][13] - The current state of misinformation and wealth concentration indicates a deviation from the original intent of the democratic system, further marginalizing ordinary citizens [11][14]

Group 1 - The core economic interaction between China and the US has been beneficial for both, with China achieving unprecedented industrialization and the US benefiting from a strong consumer market and wealth accumulation [2][4] - China's industrial capacity has surpassed that of post-war America, contributing to its national strength and wealth accumulation, while living standards have significantly improved across various social strata [2][4] - The US has seen wealth accumulation through monetary expansion, with major financial and tech companies leveraging China's production capabilities to increase their market valuations [2][4] Group 2 - The economic interaction model has negative impacts, including China's pressure from increased dollar reserves and the US facing industrial hollowing, particularly in its Midwest regions [4][9] - The dollar's dominance in global trade is based on its irreplaceability and trust in the US's responsible use of monetary power, but these foundations are now being challenged [5][7] - The US's recent actions, such as asset freezes and sanctions, have highlighted the "weaponization" of the dollar, which is causing a gradual decrease in global reliance on the dollar [7][9] Group 3 - China is pursuing the internationalization of the renminbi, supported by its economic and military strength, which poses a challenge to the dollar's dominance [7][10] - The US aims for re-industrialization to address trade deficits, but faces significant challenges due to entrenched financial interests and a lack of political will [9][10] - China's goal is to ensure economic security and maintain its industrial base while navigating the complexities of international relations and potential financial risks [10][11] Group 4 - The future of US-China relations will be determined through negotiation and power dynamics, with time favoring China as it continues to strengthen its position [11] - The US must shift from a confrontational stance to one of equal negotiation to achieve cooperation from China, which possesses significant countermeasures [10][11] - China faces the dual challenge of managing the risks of financial overexpansion and ensuring a balance between short-term gains and long-term responsibilities in global governance [11]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the challenges faced by South Korean companies in the U.S., particularly in light of recent immigration enforcement actions that have raised questions about the sustainability of their investments and operations in America [1][10] - The historical context shows that South Korea has been significantly influenced by U.S. monetary policy, leading to cycles of capital inflow and outflow that have strained Korean enterprises [3][5] - The tightening of U.S. visa policies has created operational difficulties for Korean firms, with a high rejection rate for H-1B visas, complicating the transfer of skilled labor necessary for their U.S. operations [9][10] Group 2 - The economic relationship between the U.S. and South Korea is characterized by an imbalance in profit distribution, with reports indicating that 90% of investment profits are retained by the U.S. [12] - South Korean firms are experiencing a loss of innovation capacity and a shrinking space for industrial upgrades due to foreign control over management and ownership [12][14] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and U.S. policies are placing South Korea in a precarious position, leading to internal societal debates about the implications of being a "cash cow" for U.S. interests [14][16] Group 3 - The recent raid in Georgia highlights the systemic issues faced by Korean companies in the U.S., revealing the complexities of labor regulations and immigration policies that impact their operational capabilities [1][10] - The trend of South Korean companies relocating their operations to the U.S. is contributing to a hollowing out of domestic industries, resulting in fewer high-end jobs and reduced tax revenues in South Korea [7][12] - The future of U.S.-Korea relations remains uncertain, with potential scenarios that could further complicate South Korea's economic and security landscape amid shifting global supply chains [16]